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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026

Gfs shearing the wave more this run since the Baja low is further west. Don’t get as much of a QPF bomb. At least not through 144. Still a good hit though. I’d say with the AI models and euro, ensembles being more amped, we aren’t going to be lacking on moisture or surface cold. Need to iron out the mid levels
 
cae forecast office for some reason has rain and snow wed, saturday, sunday

idk whats going on but that don't sound right


Given the notable trends across the three major physics-based
ensemble suites, next weekend will need to be monitored for a
potentially impactful system. The overall synoptic pattern is driven
by persistent deep troughing and an expected strong Canadian surface
high digging into the north central US. This could provide
sufficient low level cold air with strong CAD and a typical broad
overrunning setup for wintry precip. However there are some notable
disagreements across guidance, let alone the inherent uncertainty
that comes with day 5-7 forecasting. So while the EC EFI and NAEFS
show general agreement in this anomalous setup, prediction of very
cold airmasses like this is tricky, especially as they dig down into
the central US in both intensity and easterly extent; generally
shallow cold airmasses dig further south than east and trend weaken
in forecast time. For example, the AI models-ensembles show this
idea (which have performed well this season so far) and are notably
weaker with the surface high and therefore a less aggressive
CAD setup compared to their physics based counterparts. So lots
to monitor for next weekend but the inherent uncertainty with
regards to wintry precip is very high.
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NWS RAH has their eye on late week, here’s a section of the forecast discussion this morning:

KEY MESSAGES...
As of 1200 AM Monday...

1) Patchy black ice possible through mid-morning Monday.

2) Generally a cold week ahead, potential for a significant winter storm late week or this weekend and bitterly cold temperatures -
either with, or both - with and behind - the potential system.

3) Very cold temperatures expected later this weekend into early next week.
 
rburrel2 said:
Euro also… devastating 1 in a 100 year type ice storm. Probably mostly sleet for the upstate and central NC though. But it’s a qpf nuke

Trends have been awful for snow this morning, and great if you like copious amounts of sleet and ice.
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Can you show the maps


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I live in Wake County 4 miles West of Morrisville and 1 mile East of the Chatham County line. Here is the forecast the Raleigh NWS office put out for here. I can't remember the last time if ever I've seen this 5-6 days out before.

Friday Night
A chance of rain and snow after 1am. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 27. Chance of precipitation is 40%.
Saturday
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 36. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Saturday Night
Snow likely. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 18. Chance of precipitation is 60%.
Sunday
A chance of snow. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 30. Chance of precipitation is 50%.
 
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Mitch West said:
Euro is another massive ice storm. It's pulling in more moisture from the West this run compared to 00z. View attachment 185504
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Historically that footprint lines up. Also, historically (2014) as well ….. as others have mentioned layer tends to trend Colder up until onset most times in last 24-36hrs and a lot of the pink ends up orange and sleet/snow mix jmo


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GFS AI is warm.. Massive outlier for now. Euro AI is a middle ground model. It has a sharp intense wedge but a mean warm nose with a LP riding right up the Apps. Would just be a catastrophic ice storm for areas East of the Apps. It's an Ohio Valley Mid Atlantic snow storm. Places like CAE sit in a cold rain. It's hard to ignore that Euro AI.
 
Mitch West said:
GFS AI is warm.. Massive outlier for now. Euro AI is a middle ground model. It has a sharp intense wedge but a mean warm nose with a LP riding right up the Apps. Would just be a catastrophic ice storm for areas East of the Apps. It's an Ohio Valley Mid Atlantic snow storm. Places like CAE sit in a cold rain. It's hard to ignore that Euro AI.
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Been a long time since we’ve had a traditional CAD event with a cold source region like this. I think you’ll see the freezing region expand even if 5h stays the same. And you’ll get a quicker transfer to the coast with the surface low. I’d be shocked if Atlanta and Columbia aren’t dealing with significant ice,(if it plays out as depicted on euro ai).

The only pause I have with that is the wedge builds in after precip has started, usually in the scenario it takes a little longer than what models show to work in… but… the euro ai gets it in place well ahead of the main slug of precip so I’m not sure that would matter much.
 
6z euro mean snowfall actually shifted south quite a bit new run on bottom
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c472579e6b66a3ab545e7cfbb64aaf83.jpg
 
Rooting for just plain snow in Triad: Then I'll take the ICON,GFS, Canadian. Euro is pretty good for snow in Triad, but we would want it to shift 75 miles further south to be right on top of the other determistic models.
Ukmet is onset snow/ to major ICE and outlier right now. way further north than all other guidance.

Surface cold aint going to be a problem no matter what. Rare we dont have to sweat 2m temps. But this storm will be the exception.
 
Jimmy Hypocracy said:
AI trends. AIGFS appears to be a slower learnerView attachment 185510View attachment 185511
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I’m sure it’s got decent scores but I haven’t been super impressed by it so far.

WxNext, AIFS, Euro OP all pretty similar this morning. I imagine we have one or two moderate adjustments left by midweek, and those will be important ones. Assuming they keep the wintry potential pretty far south, some of us are going to have to sweat the minor adjustments of the final few days of the forecast, because we all know small differences are going to mean quite a lot in a CAD setup.

At the moment, not much to make you think this isn’t going to be a high QPF CAD storm, but enough there to make you at least consider the possibility it goes north.
 
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