The big dogs show up early, it's just been so long since we've had one.
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Wintry January 23rd-27th 2026
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Stormsfury
Member
Normally. But having a hard press of a 1045mb high constantly refreshing the airmass negates that normal process.
lol. That little meso HP parked over the foothills of NC. Just there to say 'this heavy CAD is for real!'
NWMSGuy
Member
Latest precip type from the 12Z GEFS:
Snow_chaser
Member
Glenn Burns is biting. On his fb page he’s saying if he’s wrong, he’s wrong but need to be prepared for a potential devastating ice storm
At least in SC, our public funded Santee Cooper is positioned pretty well for recovery should we have ice issues. The private conglomerates like Duke and Dominion I’m not sure of. Let’s hope we don’t have THAT kind of ice.
UNCSC
Member
haven’t seen weather channel bite this hard this early since 2022 in my area
JQPublic
Member
I really don’t know what to think. Which is it gonna be?
GFS CMC and UKMET also have strong high pressure modeled. Obviously we have no clue how this plays out but this isn’t normal territory either.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Snowking2.0
Member
I’m really liking where i’m sitting here north of Huntsville in Hazel Green Alabama for this potential system
rburrel2
Member
The only models I can find in the rainy/cutter camp at 12z are the jma, gfs ai, and Fourcast ai. Everything else is a major hit. We could still lose this quick if it goes the other way though. Need to hold on to it for another day or two to lock in.
Me sitting here like “we can’t possibly fumble this look” like I did last time. Maybe we won’t fumble it this time it’s like we are given a field goal kick at the 20 yd line…
Notice how it’s the same area of Georgia that just got hit
iGRXY
Member
I'd be way more worried about suppression vs a cutter
SnowmasterATL
Member
Naw, that is the total from today includingNotice how it’s the same area of Georgia that just got hit
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
With a 1050 HP roaring down, I tend to agree.
NEGaweather
Member
Notice how it’s the same area of Georgia that just got hit
Pretty sure that part is today’s output for today’s event
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iGRXY
Member
Even if you cut some of that off, you're still in the 1040-1045 range which still kills the cutter theory
tractor girl
Member
It's going to pull me in again
Let's keep trending that SER down please.
Here's the blueprint for disaster, H5 analysis from 12z 12/05/2002:
Here's the blueprint for disaster, H5 analysis from 12z 12/05/2002:
olhausen
Member
Good lord! The whole board would be thrilled with this.
rburrel2
Member
Meh, if this was is suppressed I think there’s a follow up wave that’ll hit.
One major way we might escape this period without wintry weather is if everything goes in to the first storm and it’s rainy. That’s my biggest fear.
If that Baja low hangs back bc the trough doesn’t drop so hard out west, we have a good shot a few days later.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Honestly, I’m not sure what they’re going on about here
Your low to mid-level temps just above the boundary layer (which aren’t subject to those model biases) are threatening January records (dark blue) over southern Canada and the Upper Midwest.
Your SLP records (via WPC) are in the low to mid 1050s in January. 1050mb ish isn’t unreasonable at all
rburrel2
Member
But… I think you’re right in that we will see more corrections south thanks to the retrograding block that should keep a trough from troughing too much in the Pacific Northwest.
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Did I just see that the euro AI ensemble had almost a foot mean in my backyard? Have I had too many drinks on this ship today?
Yeah, I tend to agree, What exactly is the "long track record..." they refer to in this context?
AIFS temp gradient is insane. This would not be a weak low pressure system riding along a gradient like that. Although I’d root for a weaker sliding type system
They just want to say “we always said this was nothing” when we manage to fumble it
SnowmasterATL
Member
more like Freezing rain/Sleet potential. Let's hope for a colder solution at the 850.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
My TWC app is now showing 42/26 for next Sunday, with freezing rain that day and night.
rusrius
Member
I remember those crippling ice storms from my childhood (and I’m approaching 60 years old) and I really don’t want to have to go through that again.
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Feb 2014….. last time I saw bonkers numbers 5-6 days out. I will never forget that Sat AM before the storm on Weds that run came out with 10-20” in NC…. And just kept coming and coming and coming run after run. EURO that Sunday (yes ik including ice) dropped that run of widespread 15-20+” and then it was game on bc it was under 100hrs. That Monday evening before Weds AM I wish I still had the screenshots from NWS GSP “Snow and Sleet Heavy at times. Accumulating 6-10”” then the next Overnight “Snow occasionally mixing with sleet accumulation 5-7” and the point Forecast graphic had me at 12-18” it was insanity
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NCSNOW
Member
Thinking same thing, looking at model trends. Heck of a press forecasted with how everything is positioned up above us
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Go watch his video on March 93’ …. He was scoffed at for calling for 3’ in N GA….. he nailed it
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Every model that bouncycorn stood next to and said “this is the best we got” is shrieking bloody murder
Let it take you weeks like the one we’re about to have is why we do this