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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

1613z RDU sounding shows the wet bulb zero height has crept down to ~900mb/~1900 feet above ground, which is close to the HRRR 2 hour forecast for 18z.

Need the melting snow aloft to drill down thru another 400 feet or so of the near surface warm layer to get some rain/snow mix over the Triangle area.

That also lines up with the elevation differences between Raleigh (315 feet) & Randleman (715 feet), where it's starting to changeover to snow or a mix.

RDU Sounding Jan 18 2026 1613z.png

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Webberweather53 said:
1613z RDU sounding shows the wet bulb zero height has crept down to ~900mb/~1900 feet above ground, which is close to the HRRR 2 hour forecast for 18z.

Need the melting snow aloft to drill down thru another 400 feet or so of the near surface warm layer to get some rain/snow mix over the Triangle area.

That also lines up with the elevation differences between Raleigh (315 feet) & Randleman (715 feet), where it's starting to changeover to snow or a mix.

View attachment 185130

View attachment 185131
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This is been perhaps the best forecasting and nowcasting work I’ve ever seen from the jump and I’ve been on these wx forums since the early 2000s. And that includes all sources and agencies of weather info. Absolutely baller work Eric using fundamentals instead of model regurgitation. And now I’m reminded how useful ACARS data is!
 
blueheronNC said:
This is been perhaps the best forecasting and nowcasting work I’ve ever seen from the jump and I’ve been on these wx forums since the early 2000s. And that includes all sources and agencies of weather info. Absolutely baller work Eric using fundamentals instead of model regurgitation. And now I’m reminded how useful ACARS data is!
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Agreed but I’ve come to expect it from Eric.
 
SD said:
Oh come on you can do itView attachment 185168
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Temps actually did moderate earlier as precip ramped up but it's back down to 39 now and looking at your maps, it is so close to being able to mix a few flakes in. I might still have time to see a few.
 
tazaroo said:
Finally changed to snow in Asheboro about 15 minutes ago. Precipitation ending soon. 35 degrees.
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Yea its coming down pretty good right now. Hardest snow we have had all season. Like 4th or 5th time now and can hardly net a trace each one. But next weekend we are gonna make up for it Biggly.


1768765754950.jpeg
 
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SD said:
39 .85 in the bucket. Slightly mad it didn't snow but the rain was so necessary
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Well, we overperformed on liquid equivalent, at least. We needed it! Hopefully, with the skies now healed, we can overperformed on future events that actually have significant wintry components.

It's pouring rain right now, and as far as I can tell it's still all-rain here in NE Chapel Hill. If Hillsborough has changed over, perhaps it won't be too much longer, though. We are about 300 ft. lower in elevation, though, if I remember right...
 
  • Haha
Reactions: SD
If we over towards the Triangle can changeover to snow we will stand a little better shot at it sticking than earlier with the better diurnal timing, just a couple hours before sunset. Silver linings, LOL. But if we don’t changeover, it doesn’t matter!!!
 
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