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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat

HailCore said:
Sheesh... Aside from obvious dry air issues with the HRW-FV3, there is a 4-5 hour period of snow in ATL. Man how I wish there wasn't such a dry column during this time period
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Say what? How good or bad is the HRW-FV3? KFFC has absolutely no mention of snow in their forecast north of Henry county. Thus, I haven’t mentioned anything to my ATL sis.
 
Earlier today, I said to watch for precipitation breaking out along the Louisiana Coast this evening and spreading into SE Louisiana as an indicator for improved chances of a further NW extent and increase of precipitation rates further NW into Georgia late tonight into the morning in Georgia. Let's just say, so for, so good.

Guess I'll have to put on a pot of coffee now.
 
GaWx said:
Say what? How good or bad is the HRW-FV3? KFFC has absolutely no mention of snow in their forecast north of Henry county. Thus, I haven’t mentioned anything to my ATL sis.
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All I know about this model is that it can kind of show the entire composite reflectivity shield, or at least the majority of it as snow reaching the surface when the air is still way too dry. It brought precip north of ATL last year which ended up not making it to the surface, but it wasn't too far off if I remember right.
 
packfan98 said:
Here’s the 3k. No NW trend for my backyard, but those in the good precip look to have some fun.
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Looks like the trend is for more of a coastal lp takeover. Good news is it Will pull colder air in up top and generate more precip. Pitfall for us is, it will yank things 30 miles futher east and we will miss a 2-3 incher in the grass by the hair of our chin.
 
HailCore said:
All I know about this model is that it can kind of show the entire composite reflectivity shield, or at least the majority of it as snow reaching the surface when the air is still way too dry. It brought precip north of ATL last year which ended up not making it to the surface, but it wasn't too far off if I remember right.
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Is this the only model showing ATL snow? My sis lives near Emory University.
 
I'm not putting much faith in the totals the latest NAM run is showing but if anything close to this happens, I'll give this model a gold star for being the most consistent throughout the tracking progress. It has been showing accumulating snow for the Northeast Piedmont just about every run when other models were showing next to nothing.
 
NCSNOW said:
Looks like the trend is for more of a coastal lp takeover. Good news is it Will pull colder air in up top and generate more precip. Pitfall for us is, it will yank things 30 miles futher east and we will miss a 2-3 incher in the grass by the hair of our chin.
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Yep. I still expect a few surprises and hope for the best. Good luck everyone. Bedtime for me.
 
KyloG said:
Major cams all showing snow across central NC…but lot of smart folks saying all we see is rain, cold at that.

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Dude I just did the exact same gif and was coming here to post it, Lol! I don't expect these accumulations of course, but gonna be a pretty massive failure by all short range models if we don't see this end with a changeover to snow
 
TheWeatherDriver said:
I like that final push that’s being shown on the models now. It gives me hope in Wake and Johnston County 😂
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You and me both. I had completely given up on this event 48 hours ago but now I'm not 100% certain that we won't end up with an accumulation even if it is only a dusting. It's a shame to waste most of the precipitation because there is no blocking high in place over the Northeast.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Earlier today, I said to watch for precipitation breaking out along the Louisiana Coast this evening and spreading into SE Louisiana as an indicator for improved chances of a further NW extent and increase of precipitation rates further NW into Georgia late tonight into the morning in Georgia. Let's just say, so for, so good.

Guess I'll have to put on a pot of coffee now.
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Just went to look if this was the case. And I noticed that the radar flipped to clear air mode.

So it might not be as much as ya think? Someone feel free to confirm that.
 
RBR71 said:
Dude I just did the exact same gif and was coming here to post it, Lol! I don't expect these accumulations of course, but gonna be a pretty massive failure by all short range models if we don't see this end with a changeover to snow
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Yep…a win for me would be 1-2 hours of wet snow. 🤷‍♂️
 
Could someone who knows more about 700mb Frontogenesis than I do explain what is going on here west of GA and what the implications for the surface precip are?
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GaWx said:
Is this the only model showing ATL snow? My sis lives near Emory University.
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A few of the HRRR runs, particularly the 23Z run looked like it briefly brought light snow to ATL, but it is still questionable because of the dry air. The HRRR has been ticking NW though, and it will be interesting to see where it goes. Almost all the model guidance brings a few hour wave of low composite reflectivities (10-20dbz) back into the ATL area for a brief time period early tomorrow morning, but it is most likely all evaporating on these runs. A few soundings just 20-30 or so miles east of ATL on the HRRR did briefly support some light snow if rates were high enough though (the dry layer was small enough that some precip had the chance of making it down)
 
RBR71 said:
Dude I just did the exact same gif and was coming here to post it, Lol! I don't expect these accumulations of course, but gonna be a pretty massive failure by all short range models if we don't see this end with a changeover to snow
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The 12z HREF had us changing over to snow tomorrow afternoon. The 00z runs are looking better and consistent. I believe we have a decent shot esp with the degree of possible mesoscale banding within the main precip shield.


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ATLCane17 said:
Starting to snow in Highlands,NC
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Are you there? This is one of the rare setups that works for them. I’m curious to see if they get any accumulation overnight with this front band. It looks to be in the low 30s there now.
 
CNCsnwfan1210 said:
The 12z HREF had us changing over to snow tomorrow afternoon. The 00z runs are looking better and consistent. I believe we have a decent shot esp with the degree of possible mesoscale banding within the main precip shield.


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JWall said the hrrr has us changing over around 10-11


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atlwx said:
Just went to look if this was the case. And I noticed that the radar flipped to clear air mode.

So it might not be as much as ya think? Someone feel free to confirm that.
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I've been monitoring the regional radar from COD. It has been in clear-air mode all day.
 
Tsappfrog20 said:
JWall said the hrrr has us changing over around 10-11


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Yes for the Triangle, further east though it will be a little later…it’ll be interesting watching where these mesoscale bands and bright banding set up…gonna be a fun one to watch.


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CNCsnwfan1210 said:
The 12z HREF had us changing over to snow tomorrow afternoon. The 00z runs are looking better and consistent. I believe we have a decent shot esp with the degree of possible mesoscale banding within the main precip shield.


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Add FV3 to the mix, probably one of the reasons HREF is looking better as well
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weather bubba said:
You and me both. I had completely given up on this event 48 hours ago but now I'm not 100% certain that we won't end up with an accumulation even if it is only a dusting. It's a shame to waste most of the precipitation because there is no blocking high in place over the Northeast.
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The models are hinting at a heavy band towards the end of this thing so let’s hope!
 
Allan just did another map update!!

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Tsappfrog20 said:
Allan just did another map update!!

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That seems fairly aggressive but it is a tough one for sure and changing by the hour. I'm done for the night, hopefully wake up to good reports from down south/west and things trending good for us. Good luck everyone
 
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