Pattern January Joke

[trackersacker]

I think we need to have a conversation about February.

Any takers?

 

[bncho]

I think we need to have a conversation about February.

Any takers?View attachment 184693

The advertised pattern from January 25 to February 10 is very Ninoish, and is a prime example of why we like Ninos with blocking so much. It's super easy to score. The STJ is always active, so there are so many juiced up waves that can tap into cold air to score. Hopefully this 2-3 week stretch is a preview of Winter 2026-27. I'm really excited.

 

[Webberweather53]

I think we need to have a conversation about February.

Any takers?View attachment 184693

This honestly just looks like an El Niño winter February. La Niña is just completely dead at this point

 

[packfan98]

Big dog potential. Lots of 6 inch put storms depicted. Only need one of them to pan out.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

A little ways out, but the SPV is expected to weaken to below normal strength ~mid February or so.


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[SD]

I think we need to have a conversation about February.

Any takers?View attachment 184693

First 15-20 days look good

 

[trackersacker]

This honestly just looks like an El Niño winter February. La Niña is just completely dead at this point

Thank God. @Mitch West we are going to make February great again

 

[trackersacker]

I feel like we are just begging for a massive Miller A at some point before this winter is over

 

[Webberweather53]

A little ways out, but the SPV is expected to weaken to below normal strength ~mid February or so.


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The lower stratosphere (100-150mb) that really matters for us is getting cooked by this North Pacific wave train and Scandinavian high combo (polar vortex split attempt)

 

[broken025]

No way we ---- this up. Money in the bank boys.

 

[Webberweather53]

Late winter this year looks like a total wildcard with an El Niño-esque longwave pattern dominating the picture. Haven’t seen that in quite some time

I threw a -ENSO Feb pattern composite together real quick to see what I could find. Lots of interesting years in here

We had some big dog events in NC during Feb 2014, 1996, 1984, 1968, & 1963

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

No way we ---- this up. Money in the bank boys.

I was promised an appetizer tomorrow

 

[griteater]

Colder trend here on the Weathernext Ensemble for Jan 28 with storm signal

 

[iGRXY]

A LOT of boom/bust scenarios here. For GSP, 12 show a big dog; purple/pink/teal. But on the other hand; 17 (or about 1/3) show nothing at all or just a "dusting." This far out its doesn't mean much either way; just that there is a possible system at the time frame. Way too early to get drawn in by the means or pretty colors though. Naturally all us nerds will keep an eye out but just a word to the wise; control expectations and especially hopes.

I will say some of those bust could be icier solutions vs snow or rain

 

[BullCityWx]

Only seen it once - December 2018

That’s absolutely ludicrous. I’ve never seen an ensemble snow mean that high in NC

 

[rburrel2]

Another gfsai run, another winter storm. We can’t miss.

 

[rburrel2]

These ai models are so locked in… it’s crazy.

 

[TheBatman]

These ai models are so locked in… it’s crazy.

View attachment 184731

Going to be some awesome accumulations maps for this run.

 

[broken025]

These ai models are so locked in… it’s crazy.

View attachment 184731

That one’s a beaut

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

When cold spills into the gville this is typically how it does it. So I’ll buy what the RGEM is selling as the footprint is close. You will need the rates though

 

[wow]

These ai models are so locked in… it’s crazy.

View attachment 184731

Go charge your phone!

 

[HailCore]

I can’t remember the last time there was this much long range support for a strong SE winter storm except for maybe Feb 2021 which ended up being further west, but nonetheless was pretty high impact for the areas that saw it.

 

[rburrel2]

18z Gfs has changed and is now following the AI models with the miss on capturing this Baja wave.

As a result, I predict a banger is coming up.

 

[broken025]

No shortage of cold air

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

No shortage of cold airView attachment 184743

Would be borderline impossible not to get snowed on

 

[LittleMountain]

Would be borderline impossible not to get snowed onView attachment 184745

Suppression concern?

 

[trackersacker]

Suppression concern?

If we can keep a leftover baroclinic zone that’d help a lot

 

[JHS]

Suppression concern?

100%. This is a cold and DRY look. Maybe something from New Orleans to Savannah GA, but not for most of the board.

 

[Mike_96]

Incoming on the GFS

 

[TheBatman]

Incoming!!!

 

[broken025]

This is the one. I can feel it.

 

[rburrel2]

100%. This is a cold and DRY look. Maybe something from New Orleans to Savannah GA, but not for most of the board.

You Sure about that?

 

[Rain Cold]

Nina cold with Nino pattern with blocking.

Score

 

[Cary_Snow95]

This consistency down to the same date is insane

 

[rburrel2]

It’s a loaded gun… one wave after another with arctic high pressure anchored to our north for a week.

Gonna be real hard for something to not work out, my two cents.

 

[LittleMountain]

NC foothill folks are still traumatized from last year's suppression. This GFS run would be another example of losing to the south and east...

 

[JHS]

You Sure about that?

View attachment 184749

This is about 2 days later as those 2 high pressure centers pull back some. The 1st system fizzled out but this 2nd one may just do it. The BIG thing is having the cold air in place already before any precip arrives. This is how we used to do things back in the 1970's and 80's.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Suppression concern?

No. We’re about to make a run at the 40/70 benchmark. This is the pattern that produces that. And if not, a weak overrunning event will be your consolation prize. Hope you like snow

 

[Chazwin]

This like 8 euro ai runs in a row with a monster winter storm in the southeast? For the same timeframe? The level of disappointment I’m gonna have if this doesn’t work out will be record breaking. I’ve literally never felt so good about a day ten threat. It’s scary.

There should honestly be more discussion about this than the event tomorrow. We don’t get looks like this very often. This is once a decade stuff.

I said this last night, but the last time I can remember seeing this much agreement this for out across the ensembles was February 2014. I remember we tracked that on American WX for nearly 2 weeks. I will say all of the indicies and teleconnections do seem to be lining up perfectly in that timeframe

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Another big hit guys