tractor girl
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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
RRFS isn't exactly taking in consideration all that verga thati s on-going. As Eric Webb kinda said, what is actively going on right now will possibly help in the future when we need the moisture NW.
packfan98
Moderator
Here’s DT’s final call map. He is usually way too high for NC areas, so take this with a shaker of salt.
So in summary of the Raleigh AFD, the strong right entrant region jet streak is our ticket for any real accumulation in North Carolina. Of course, it will not be the ace in the hole unless the cold air can filter down before it hits. This is why weather is so fascinating and so difficult to predict.
Oconeexman
Member
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Cold better get to ming SE fast
scncborderwx
Member
I do not think anywhere in Central GA will see over 2” of accumulation. I think there is a lot to overcome from an accumulation standpoint.
HailCore
Member
One thing I am concerned about is how the virga off to the west was actually somewhat modeled by the HRRR, and as usual seems to be moving a bit faster than on the model. If that is the case, the first round of precip (and possibly only round for parts of N. GA) would move through before the deeper cold air gets into the picture, which also might be supported by the HRRR and RAP backing off on the initial burst of wet snow initially modeled. Hopefully I am wrong because if that initial finger band moves through just an hour or two later than than guidance, temps would be much more conducive to the initial mix or wet snow. As for this band, I am still concerned about dry air, but yes, if those green colors (typically you want 20+ dbz, ideally 25) are rolling over areas further NW, especially if the timing of that wave speeds up so that there is still some of the mid level moisture from the first wave nearby, then snow becomes plausible for points north and west, although at this time I don't really think the dry air is going to be overcome around ATL/I-85 unless there is a lot more moisture than modeled with this second wave aloft to reduce/moisten the dry air.
Hwavy accum will be next to impossible given peak heating temps will be high anyways.
Mahomeless
Member
Pack, I live 5 minutes up the road.. What are your thoughts for here?
packfan98
Moderator
I think we will see a couple of hours of wet snow that probably won’t amount to more than a heavy dusting.
Mahomeless
Member
A lot of stock being put into the HRRR by the NWS, as discussion to expand the WSW in GA to the NW another row of counties is ongoing.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Yeah, now just come like 50-70 mile NW...
At 6am???
Yes because temps will remain above freezing throughout tbe entire day in C/S GA, and **heavy** accumulation will thus be very difficult to achieve.
accu35
Member
18z icon looks better for western Fl pandhandle for snow
Mahomeless
Member
I think that’s going to be tough to accomplish with this setup, but it’s possible.
What a jerk. 
scncborderwx
Member
Not as aggressive as some of the models. 
Here's the forecast from the RRFS v2 (MPAS-Based) which will eventually be replacing the HRRR, NAM, HRW-ARW, and HRW-FV3. This is different from the RRFSA v1 that is available on the model sites, which is based on the FV3 core.
HailCore
Member
Already seeing some rain drops and sleet pellets near ATL according to mPing
Cbmatt2408
Member
We just drove through Newnan. A lot of that is hitting the ground. It’s a very cold rain despite being low 50s.
Showmeyourtds
Member
I saw that too...calling BS on that sleet report. It's in the low 50s right now
I'll let you know how it does. The NW fringe divides my county in half. I can walk to the snow line!
Lol there's that armpit
Thanks for posting this one. Hoping to get to know it quickly before the replacement happens (although I’ve heard there’s some push to keep the NAMs alive past the March execution date)
Affirmative. There is also a sleet report in Tallasheee and it’s literally 60 lol
after today, put it down... Its switched back and forth so many times this winter.
One of the best snows I ever had back in the 90s started as late afternoon sleet with temps in the low 50s. The precip became progressivly heaver, and after an hour or so, it was pouring goose feathers. Not happening this time like that since it's too warm aloft ATM.
Atlanta got fringed, and I had six inches by 2 AM.
Can confirm, it is not sleeting in Tallahasse lol
HailCore
Member
Yeah I can see that being possible, however with dry air and lower wet bulb temps, I don’t see it being out of the realm of possibility. If the air was near saturation, I would be much more skeptical.
how did we mess this up
Really curious to see how the Panhandle makes out with this tomorrow morning. From experience, everything tells me that the precip should out pace the cold. But the mesos are consistent with the transition to snow across the Panhandle in the morning. I also can't believe the Weather Channel aired live 1-2 days ago the 10:1 snowfall outputs from the Euro and GFS, with 1-3"+ across the area. I'd be shocked if we see anything more than 1" in elevated and grassy surfaces, mainly across northern Holmes and Jackson counties.
that NAM run punched CJ in the gut 