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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
scncborderwx
Member
Is the hrrr overestimating surface temps in the Carolinas?
Iām located about 30 miles south of Macon so Iām currently under the Winter Storm Warning issued by FFC. If the forecast pans out, this would be 2 consecutive years of accumulating snow which would have to be a rare occurrence for this part of Georgia. I donāt recall back-to-back years with snow since moving here in 1998.
Itās currently 60 degrees so a WSW certainly seems unlikely, but if the right temps and enough precip can dance together for a few hours, perhaps a slushy inch isnāt out of the question. FFC says the maim window for āimpactfulā snow would be between 6-11a.m.
I appreciate the model insight provided by both the licensed mets and amateurs alike. The wealth of knowledge on SouthernWX is truly amazing!
Itās currently 60 degrees so a WSW certainly seems unlikely, but if the right temps and enough precip can dance together for a few hours, perhaps a slushy inch isnāt out of the question. FFC says the maim window for āimpactfulā snow would be between 6-11a.m.
I appreciate the model insight provided by both the licensed mets and amateurs alike. The wealth of knowledge on SouthernWX is truly amazing!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
hrrr surface temps are something else
Only thing you could hope for is that the HRRR/RRFS are over-mixing the boundary layer. These models track record of late also isnāt actually stellar either.
Oth, the way this whole storm is being setup does concern me though and itās hard to ignore the possibility that it is that warm at the surface.
That seems like a common jackpot zone in some of the small events recently, so it makes sense.
It is kind of bizarre to get through my head that the Carolinas will be struggling to snow because the surface is too warm while it's snowing without issue in FLORIDA. But that seems like it may be the case. I seem to recall that the HRRR is sometimes too warm at the surface, but I also may be making that up / operating off confirmation bias as it's too convenient for our current situation. The next NAM run will be interesting based on the last SREFs. The mean precip dropped off a little, but it's unclear whether that's happening because some crazy overamped members dropped off a bit or what.
Lmao. I move from central GA and they might see some snow. I think up to 2ā is possible there. More than likely 0.5-ā to 1ā would be what I would go on TV saying.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Just a snapshot and likely most of this is virga, but just looking at the precip on the NW side it looks like a blossoming classic I-85 storm. Too bad we don't have a better cold feed and could let this intensify a bit.
Appreciate you chiming in! A couple of inches in central Georgia would be nice! Your past contributions to the forum were always insightful, especially when you were doing the forecasts out of Macon.
Mahomeless
Member
There is going to be a narrow band of 3-5ā totals on the NW front of the heaviest precip running through central Georgiaā¦I promise my crew will find it and will post pics!
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
You think the extra verga precip is an interesting look on radar/obs for northeastern GA
Had a little drizzle near Clemson about 20mins ago
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yep that is intriguing.
Probably another a classic case where the moist upglide on the leading edge of the storm is probably gonna over perform compared to very short term forecasts.
The good news is that extra precip could help some folks (esp in GA) wet bulb quicker and makes it easier to get precip later
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Our faster trends on guidance the last day or two have also translated to more snow downstream over New England this weekend.
Latest HRRR shows us getting a legit NFL snow game in Foxborough tomorrow with moderate to even heavy snow during the game. Would love to see that
Latest HRRR shows us getting a legit NFL snow game in Foxborough tomorrow with moderate to even heavy snow during the game. Would love to see that
NBAcentel
Member
awful nam run incoming ?
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
I'm just hoping to get something. Hoping for at least a couple of inches but i just don't think thats even a possibility honestly.
If this is right, CAE hits a jackpot & I'll forever view this model as an absolute unit. Can't wait to see how it does.
Tsappfrog20
Member
From NWS RAL
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
And she's caught on to the warm bubble. Great.
trackersacker
Member
Any shot at a light surprise in NE TN?
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
If only that precip bulge could come NW into actual favorable temps.
Wild how the mistakes from SC affect NC
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah thatās what Iāve been afraid of happening, canāt say Iām terribly surprised by it. This setup just doesnāt have the cold air transport or cold air in general. I knew something wasnāt right this morning when the NAM was cooler than the usually cold biased RGEM
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Hopefully this is the chance for things to start looking up for north georgia. Is there actually a legit chance of a last minute winter storm in north georgia? Or you think just some flurries as the celling
Well since its backed off, are you back to your worst case map?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah there could be some light snow with this first wave of precip that comes in along the leading edge of the low level cold front
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
I mean the cold has a long ways to come for any of us. The setup is just not there.
I think these temps are a bit high
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Iāll have to make some tweaks to that but I donāt hate where itās at.
Thank you. I appreciate the compliment. Iām going to be better about being more active in the forums for sure.
Back on the line in randleman... Typical.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Getting this close to the event, these sorts of changes in a model are usually real and I wouldnāt be shocked if the 0z was even warmer somehow. The NAM has been the cold outlier area wide the last day or so
The changes make a lot of sense just given the synoptics at play here. There is no real viable cold air transport and what cold air we do have, some of that will get blocked by the mtns. Also, the precip starts tonight well before any cold air gets here, youāre relying on cold advection midday to changeover to snow as the main mid level wave comes in, and this storm is still probably not completely done trending NW (probably another minor tweak left at verification), etc
Not surprised to see that happen with the NAM after seeing the shift on the 21z SREF.
Verbatim, it's actually a better run for most of the Triangle (changes over to snow), worse points west. Certainly, worse in much of SC / GA. Verbatim, which means nothing. Haven't looked at soundings yet, so who knows if the Kuchera is trustworthy here. Actually is a fantastic run for the sandhills, verbatim.
EDIT: I should also note it's a better run for Moyock, so that seems right.
Verbatim, it's actually a better run for most of the Triangle (changes over to snow), worse points west. Certainly, worse in much of SC / GA. Verbatim, which means nothing. Haven't looked at soundings yet, so who knows if the Kuchera is trustworthy here. Actually is a fantastic run for the sandhills, verbatim.
EDIT: I should also note it's a better run for Moyock, so that seems right.
Last edited:
Oconeexman
Member
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Yea im glad no moisture..Golf tomorrow!
Somehow I hope you can get snow tho..afraid the cold just ain't gonna be there
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
RRFS is a tick NW but still just barley off for us northeast GA folks. Granted RRFS is not at all considering current verga precip ongoing all over the SE. Nor is any model really.
packfan98
Moderator
Good synopsis from the NWS Raleigh AFD
.DISCUSSION...
As of 122 PM Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong mid-level system will move across the region tonight
through early evening Sun, where a band of rain changing to
rain/snow and then snow on the back end will favor a slushy
accumulation of snow over northern and northeast sections of central
NC.
A rather vigorous upper-level shortwave, presently on satellite over
northern TX, will round the base of a larger longwave trough set to
move into much of the eastern US Sun. As the shortwave rounds the
base of the trough over the Carolinas Sun aftn/eve, it will become
negatively tilted before exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sun
night into Mon. An impressive 150-180 kt jet streak will be
positioned from SW to NE from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-
Atlantic, putting central NC in the favored right-entrance region
for enhanced lift at mid/upper levels, primarily from overnight
tonight into early evening Sun.
At the surface, we will see a cold front slowly sag south and east
from the west on Sun, crossing over the mountains and oozing into
eastern sections of the state Sun/Sun night, as an area of low
pressure develops off the coast and tracks off the NE US Sun night.
Precipitation amounts have increased since the last forecast
issuance. This is driven by strong isentropic ascent and some
frontogenesis driven by the jet/shortwave and attendant PW-values
120-130 percent of normal. QPF amounts could range from a a tenth to
three tenths of an inch in the Triad, to one half to three quarters
of along/east of US-1 to the Coastal Plain. Rain should overspread
the region as early as late this evening, but should really get
going after midnight into early Sun morning, when the forcing really
blossoms with the jet. A changeover from rain to rain/snow is
favored for northern areas Sun morning to early Sun afternoon,
becoming briefly all snow in the mid to late afternoon across the
north before exiting early Sun evening.
The main challenge with this system continues to be how fast the
cold air can arrive before the precipitation shield exits early Sun
evening. The other question is whether mesoscale bands within the
precip shield can favor diabatic cooling for a quicker changeover to
snow. If one takes a look at the mesoscale and global models from a
forecast sounding standpoint, there is actual decent agreement on
thermal profiles. Thicknesses would support a narrow 1-3 hour window
when precipitation would changeover to all snow, which is roughly 9a-
12pm in the NW, 1-4pm in the Triangle and points N and NE, and 3p-
6pm in the central/northern Coastal Plain. Little if any snow is
expected in the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Overall,
expected snow amounts have not changed much, with a slushy trace to
half inch or less of snow on mainly elevated/grassy surfaces.
Where could this forecast go off the rails and reach the high
end/worse case amounts of 1-1.5 inches? This scenario could happen
if we see some isolated mesoscale precip bands that enhance diabatic
cooling of the column. There could also be a narrow 1-3 hr window
when mid-level lift/fgen could coincide with saturation in the
dendritic growth zone to favor a narrow zone of heavier snow rates
and support this higher worse case scenario. If this were to occur,
it would roughly be from just east of Burlington to Roxboro to NE of
Raleigh to Henderson to Roanoke Rapids, where HREF/LREF snow
probabilities for this worse case are highest. Confidence in this
scenario remains low but HREF probabilities for 1-1.5 inches do show
30-40 percent values in this region, a little higher than the global
LREF of 15-percent. For now, will continue to message the most
favored outcome noted earlier.
Precipitation wraps up early Sun evening and temperatures fall into
the 20s overnight into Mon, which may result in some refreezing and
icy patches on roadways Sun night to Mon morning.
.DISCUSSION...
As of 122 PM Saturday...
KEY MESSAGE 1...
A strong mid-level system will move across the region tonight
through early evening Sun, where a band of rain changing to
rain/snow and then snow on the back end will favor a slushy
accumulation of snow over northern and northeast sections of central
NC.
A rather vigorous upper-level shortwave, presently on satellite over
northern TX, will round the base of a larger longwave trough set to
move into much of the eastern US Sun. As the shortwave rounds the
base of the trough over the Carolinas Sun aftn/eve, it will become
negatively tilted before exiting off the Mid-Atlantic coast Sun
night into Mon. An impressive 150-180 kt jet streak will be
positioned from SW to NE from the southern Appalachians into the Mid-
Atlantic, putting central NC in the favored right-entrance region
for enhanced lift at mid/upper levels, primarily from overnight
tonight into early evening Sun.
At the surface, we will see a cold front slowly sag south and east
from the west on Sun, crossing over the mountains and oozing into
eastern sections of the state Sun/Sun night, as an area of low
pressure develops off the coast and tracks off the NE US Sun night.
Precipitation amounts have increased since the last forecast
issuance. This is driven by strong isentropic ascent and some
frontogenesis driven by the jet/shortwave and attendant PW-values
120-130 percent of normal. QPF amounts could range from a a tenth to
three tenths of an inch in the Triad, to one half to three quarters
of along/east of US-1 to the Coastal Plain. Rain should overspread
the region as early as late this evening, but should really get
going after midnight into early Sun morning, when the forcing really
blossoms with the jet. A changeover from rain to rain/snow is
favored for northern areas Sun morning to early Sun afternoon,
becoming briefly all snow in the mid to late afternoon across the
north before exiting early Sun evening.
The main challenge with this system continues to be how fast the
cold air can arrive before the precipitation shield exits early Sun
evening. The other question is whether mesoscale bands within the
precip shield can favor diabatic cooling for a quicker changeover to
snow. If one takes a look at the mesoscale and global models from a
forecast sounding standpoint, there is actual decent agreement on
thermal profiles. Thicknesses would support a narrow 1-3 hour window
when precipitation would changeover to all snow, which is roughly 9a-
12pm in the NW, 1-4pm in the Triangle and points N and NE, and 3p-
6pm in the central/northern Coastal Plain. Little if any snow is
expected in the Sandhills and southern Coastal Plain. Overall,
expected snow amounts have not changed much, with a slushy trace to
half inch or less of snow on mainly elevated/grassy surfaces.
Where could this forecast go off the rails and reach the high
end/worse case amounts of 1-1.5 inches? This scenario could happen
if we see some isolated mesoscale precip bands that enhance diabatic
cooling of the column. There could also be a narrow 1-3 hr window
when mid-level lift/fgen could coincide with saturation in the
dendritic growth zone to favor a narrow zone of heavier snow rates
and support this higher worse case scenario. If this were to occur,
it would roughly be from just east of Burlington to Roxboro to NE of
Raleigh to Henderson to Roanoke Rapids, where HREF/LREF snow
probabilities for this worse case are highest. Confidence in this
scenario remains low but HREF probabilities for 1-1.5 inches do show
30-40 percent values in this region, a little higher than the global
LREF of 15-percent. For now, will continue to message the most
favored outcome noted earlier.
Precipitation wraps up early Sun evening and temperatures fall into
the 20s overnight into Mon, which may result in some refreezing and
icy patches on roadways Sun night to Mon morning.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
HRRR has been rather hard at work behind the scenes. Note some of that lighter grey is all verga, but the greens are more like precip reaching the ground. This map does not show Precip Type. Looking sneaky for north georgia. We'll see how it continues. 