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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Makeitsnow
Member
15.8 here. Quite a bit colder than advertised
That ICON map I posted would probably verify. Drought begets drought.
Stormlover
Member
LittleMountain
Member
Things feel so bleak for the foothills of WNC and the upstate. We see the mountains snow fairly regularly, we’ve missed snow to our east 3 years in a row. It’s a rough drought we’re in right now.
NCSNOW
Member
Boys. Thursday into Friday is the next real deal" GFS and Canadian both at12z Have hits, Just like we saw off the AI models at 6Z
24 hr accum off Canadian
24 hr accum off Canadian
Agreed but we're about to hit a good spot with MJO in phase 7-8 and plenty of cold air to our North with a transition to el-nino next month. 93 had no snow until the blizzard. We have plenty of time left. All it takes is one good storm to hit average around here.
Only if the Euro shows it. Lol
That day 8 to 15 pattern 
NCSNOW
Member
Actually euro op tried last night / half heartedly. Im with you. Shows up some more, Ill go 5h digging tomorrow
broken025
Member
Definitely no shortage of opportunities showing up on the models past day 6 or so. Hopefully we don’t ---- this up too.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Based on this GEFS PNA prog, the Jan PNA is very likely going to end up a net+ once again after a -ENSO Dec -PNA, which has been the case every time since 1983-4. It will rise to ~0 MTD 1/20. With mainly +PNA from there to the EOM, this would end a net +:
I would argue that in this setup with the deep arctic air dumped into Canada and the northern US a less amped pattern might be what we need
tennessee storm
Member
Looks like western half of south and mid south regions stands good chance getting nailed end month , with upcoming pattern
Have to think that next weekend has decent enough potential to get more attention than it is around here. Probably some kind of miller b mess but take em if you got em
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2017-2023 Supporter
cough somthing somethin Dec 2018 cough
broken025
Member
This would keep the foothill people happy for a while
Sadly for us ATL folks, even though this system has shown up a ton now on both GFS and Euro, it never seems cold enough down into GA and all we get is rain. Hope it changes but… so far ATL is out of it.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
The 6z GEFS mean was impressive
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
We are going to need to see a bit better cold press out of the ensembles to get areas further south more firmly in the game. Still time!
I owuldn't s
I wouldn't sweat surface print outs just yet. Just as I am not assuming this trends north & west from mby. Plenty of time to sort those things out. We have a decent signal out there now consistently through several runs. That's the big take away.
The pattern for late January and early February looks stunning for someone living in southern Illinois. But also for the SE I could see a large scale winter storm setting up across the country around January 25-30
Lots of cold sprawled out across the country and an active southern stream .. yummy
More than likely a great pattern for winter weather in the upper south territories and CAD regions. But that’s how it normally goes anyway right?
Lots of cold sprawled out across the country and an active southern stream .. yummy
More than likely a great pattern for winter weather in the upper south territories and CAD regions. But that’s how it normally goes anyway right?
MLK day.. we will be locking in a timeframe again.
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Would need a 50/50 to help keep this 1029 H anchored. With that look the cold should be much more pronounced. Either the cold source is too weak or it's eroding very quickly. Need to slow it down and get a better cold push to the SW.
bark bark woof woof. 25th-28th calling?
Pops
Member
Gfs ,Canadian and euro look similar late next week!We will see
At least this cold press is coming in from the north/northeast. How transient is it will be the question? Also, is it progressive incoming or exiting for the region?
NBAcentel
Member
Oh yeah that could get the job done 
packfan98
Moderator
This still is not the banter thread. Please direct your random musings there. Thanks!
No GL lp is a win by itself.
SnowNiner
Member
Miller B is just the way we do it now. Miller A/B is the most ideal we hope for. I'll take a couple inches of sleet on top of a couple inches of snow any day.
Look at that high pressure sprawling up top everywhere. Very nice to see.
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Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I am impressed and somewhat surprised by the persistence of this -NAO regime in the extended. I thought a few weeks ago we’d see things take a break for a bit at the end of January (lol that’s obviously not going to happen) & I definitely would have thought we would be seeing things flip positively or signs of it by this point in the winter.
The reason the -NAO is so strong and persistent here is we are still likely feeling the effects of that early winter stratospheric warming event with another big hit to the lower stratosphere (wave 2) at the end of January putting even more pressure on the polar vortex.
Good times are gonna keep rolling pattern wise. Just need to take advantage of it
The reason the -NAO is so strong and persistent here is we are still likely feeling the effects of that early winter stratospheric warming event with another big hit to the lower stratosphere (wave 2) at the end of January putting even more pressure on the polar vortex.
Good times are gonna keep rolling pattern wise. Just need to take advantage of it
Just my opinion, and some might disagree, but if we don’t see the Southern stream get active it will be hard to trust any models showing any winter type qpf from a short wave!
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SnowNiner
Member
Euro AIFS wants to give us a super clipper in the subject timeframe. Meh. This run didn't have any Miller A/B southern storms that i could see.
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That period around 24-28th is trying to tell us something...
5 day snow mean with 2-6" across NC-VA.
I agree. The theme has been to reflect more moisture in the forecast than what actually matriculates. Hope this fading 'nina (neutral yet?) will help true up the precip forecasts more realistically
Is that a gulf storm type though or is it clipper action? Was wondering that here the other day