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Misc General Banter Thread

LongRanger said:
Neither are the Globals in reliable range, 3 days out they are trash, Id gladly put all my chips in on the Short range 3 days out. Call it wish casting if you want.
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If only one or two globals were dry and the rest had precip, and all short range models had precip then maybe. Problem is not a single global has precip here now. And the only one that ever did was goofus. Now the long range NAM stands alone. Not something I'd bet on. Precip is the issue here.
 
RSG said:
If only one or two globals were dry and the rest had precip, and all short range models had precip then maybe. Problem is not a single global has precip here now. And the only one that ever did was goofus. Now the long range NAM stands alone. Not something I'd bet on. Precip is the issue here.
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Yes, we have temp AND precip issues... that has become the true trend of this storm... I suppose the GFS always stood alone.. not even cold biased CMC threw this a bone.
 
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I couldn't be too disappointed with the 18z GFS becoming reality at this point. Just hoping for some sticking snow. Give me 1"+ and I'll call it a win (which is a 50/50 chance at best at this point, I think).
 
SD said:
Just need to wait to get the current system out of the way
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Don't forget the Hurricane Hunters are going to fly into the storm and give us more sampling data which is going to shift the modeling to a monster storm bombing off in the Atlantic with dynamic cooling and blizzard conditions.
 
superjames1992 said:
Don't forget the Hurricane Hunters are going to fly into the storm and give us more sampling data which is going to shift the modeling to a monster storm bombing off in the Atlantic with dynamic cooling and blizzard conditions.
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Once the shortwave gets hit by a weather balloon its game on
 
It’s at least 24-36 hours too early to be jumping ship. Even the storm last year jumped NW at the final hour, just not quite enough for us.
 
ducketta27 said:
Yes, we have temp AND precip issues... that has become the true trend of this storm... I suppose the GFS always stood alone.. not even cold biased CMC threw this a bone.
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Yeah I just sat back and watched it play out and hoped the other models would follow the GFS. I will say your area very well may get some precip. Not sure it'll be a lot. But temps will definitely be a problem down your way. But you are in a better location than the upstate, especially north of 85. I've had to say that a lot lately. Used to be the complete opposite.
 
Realistically I thought the globals would meet somewhere in the middle. The GFS completely caved to the other models, just like Bouncy said. From this point going forward for me, the GFS is completely dead, and I won't pay any attention to it anymore. To be that far off all the way into short model range, the GFS serves literally no purpose in forecasting other than showing what not to look at. The GEFS mean went from almost 100% coverage in certain areas to nothing in less than 24 hours within 72 hours of an event, that is just unacceptable. Quite honestly, I've always said the Icon and RGEM are my two favorites, I'm sticking with it.
 
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In all seriousness, I don’t understand melting down and punting for most folks right now. This could easily be a 1-3” / 2-4” type event for some, even if it’s a fairly narrow streak where they get both enough precip and enough cold air. And we’re not that far off from something better (and by the same token we’re not far off from getting totally blanked).
 
superjames1992 said:
In all seriousness, I don’t understand melting down and punting for most folks right now. This could easily be a 1-3” / 2-4” type event for some, even if it’s a fairly narrow streak where they get both enough precip and enough cold air. And we’re not that far off from something better (and by the same token we’re not far off from getting totally blanked).
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for my area the nam is literally saying "hey bro, dynamic cooling, you gone switch over to snow, no worries".

NEVER HAPPENS.
 
J.C. said:
Realistically I thought the globals would meet somewhere in the middle. The GFS completely caved to the other models, just like Bouncy said. From this point going forward for me, the GFS is completely dead, and I won't pay any attention to it anymore. To be that far off all the way into short model range, the GFS serves literally no purpose in forecasting other than showing what not to look at. The GEFS mean went from almost 100% coverage in certain areas to nothing in less than 24 hours within 72 hours of an event, that is just unacceptable. Quite honestly, I've always said the Icon and RGEM are my two favorites, I'm sticking with it.
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Did it really though? I believe some of the globals weren’t even getting precip to the coastline the other day?
 
J.C. said:
Realistically I thought the globals would meet somewhere in the middle. The GFS completely caved to the other models, just like Bouncy said. From this point going forward for me, the GFS is completely dead, and I won't pay any attention to it anymore. To be that far off all the way into short model range, the GFS serves literally no purpose in forecasting other than showing what not to look at. The GEFS mean went from almost 100% coverage in certain areas to nothing in less than 24 hours within 72 hours of an event, that is just unacceptable. Quite honestly, I've always said the Icon and RGEM are my two favorites, I'm sticking with it.
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You say that but as soon as you see a pretty GFS map showing 2 feet of snow in North Georgia you'll be sucked right back in.
 
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