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Jan. 17-18, 2026 SE Winter Weather Threat
- Thread starter RBR71
- Start date
packfan98
Moderator
This is 6 hours old. New run is coming in now.
Pretty sure this run might be a precip nuke. Watch out for temperatures though
Iceagewhereartthou
Member
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah this looks like Dec 2017 aloft. Ironically, another storm that wasn’t supposed to do much in ATL, but as usual, models grossly underestimated the isentropic upglide and waa aloft, the precip ended up much further NW
Higher heights also mean more WAA and moisture.
Edit: I know that you know this, more for others.
https://forecast.weather.gov/produc...&format=CI&version=1&glossary=1&highlight=off
This forecast discussion for Sunday is almost exactly what WebberWeather53 has been saying about Sunday's storm verbatim. Did he get a job with the NWS in Raleigh and forget to tell us?
This forecast discussion for Sunday is almost exactly what WebberWeather53 has been saying about Sunday's storm verbatim. Did he get a job with the NWS in Raleigh and forget to tell us?
Mahomeless
Member
I-20 nuke job incoming!
Snowflowxxl
Member
Chill with the post fam
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Biggest NAM takeaways so far:
-Stronger energy/New energy showing up
-everything is more consolidated
-Stronger energy/New energy showing up
-everything is more consolidated
packfan98
Moderator
Yes, you need to read more and post less or be banned from this thread.
anc.py
Member
mydoortotheworld
Member
Anyone have screens? Stuck at work and can’t pull up maps
remember when viewing the 12k nam it often has unnatural precip hole artifacts
anc.py
Member
case in point, it would probably be more filled in than this if this exact scenario played out
packfan98
Moderator
Just coming into range for the precip maps. Looks to be SE of 12z with the footprint of precip so far.
anc.py
Member
HailCore
Member
For a second it looked like the NAM was going to shift away from its original crazy runs from earlier and then .... BOOM!
packfan98
Moderator
packfan98
Moderator
Boom!
Goodness lol
Inch per hour type of stuff on the NAM
Inch per hour type of stuff on the NAM
anc.py
Member
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
One thing I can say for certain, if that 500mb map was what it truly was at game time, the surface would be exploding a whole lot more on the NW side.
ChattaVOL
Member
SE correction before the NW correction.
oh LAWWWWD SHE COMIN
Wow, we really may be trending towards 12/8/17. That is once again a damn good place to be sitting for a lot of us to the NW with 48-60 hours to go. Deep breathing, deep breathing.
BKWRN29
Member
How has this model preformed in past storms? Doesn’t it over estimate generally?
Exactly that's why I think us in the Foothills are sitting pretty. This reminds me of 2017 a lot. Webb has been trying to tell people all week how set ups like these will work. That precipitation field will most definitely fill in Northwest up against the escarpment.
packfan98
Moderator
On behalf of the SE Crew, I'd like to cash out please!
Just keeps snowing in a lot of areas
anc.py
Member
RRFS axis tilts more NE/SW on the 18z run.
Bigedd09
Member
One of the things I’ve noticed about this NAM run is that it was cooler too. NAM does very well with thermals
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
ForsythSnow
Moderator
That's another screwjob here sadly. So close but so far. But also the NAM. Have to see what the others do.