Slightly cold MLK morning
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
HailCore
Member
Does anybody know what weather model this is? Obviously not gonna happen like that, but genuinely intrigued looking at that.
Not a bad two run trend.
packfan98
Moderator
GFS is trying for system 1
NCWeatherNow
Member
BAMS
Baron Services in house model
NBAcentel
Member
GFS trending more separation between waves.
Mentioned it this morning. Euro showed it. There is a separation.
Good catch, accu. That is related to H5, which changed on the Icon from dry WNW to W flow on the 0Z to wetter WSW flow on the 12Z due to the trough axis being further west:
Thus, 24 hour precip goes from nothing in the deep SE/N Gulf/near SE coast on the 0Z to amounts up to 0.25” on the 12Z:
This leads to the 12Z’s E NC snow that wasn’t on the 0Z:
packfan98
Moderator
Here we go. See if GFS can cook.
I mean the cold is right there. 
packfan98
Moderator
Yep. Cooking...
packfan98
Moderator
The Alabama folks better be getting excited on here and many others. We are cashing in this weekend. This is how we score!
That’s what I am talking about!!!
packfan98
Moderator
close enough for now.
Jan88
Member
Leaning towards last night's euro/uk solutionYep. Cooking...
You can see the fetch. This is really on the verge of a banger. Small tweaks go a long way from here on in 
WolfpackHomer91
Member
Go look at how far SW the 500 has jumped SW since 00Z runs.... 2 more jumps and thats actually a tru trend bc it will be 4 straight cycles. EDIT: Jimmy posted it
packfan98
Moderator
In previous years, this would be a great look for the GFS to correct stronger NW instead of out to sea.
broken025
Member
Man that looks close to being glorious
A few more jumps like that and we’re back to a cutter. Careful
Deja vu with the mid Jan 2018 event
NCWeatherNow
Member
What caused that storm to blow up?
It was so weird
good or bad?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
12z GEFS for 1st system at hr 72
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Move that surface low pressure a little to the southwest, increase the strength and track it up the coastline instead of out to sea and you have the ingredients for a coastal snowstorm that would make lots of people happy in Eastern VA/NC and SC. It's been awhile since we have seen one of those.
In previous years, this would be a great look for the GFS to correct stronger NW instead of out to sea.
Man, I so want this to work. Nothing beats a snowfall that's followed by Arctic cold to keep it around a while.
So, so close to being nothing of note or a big dog for many.
Meanwhile, the crazy uncle is doing crazy uncle things and unleashing Siberia into the
So, so close to being nothing of note or a big dog for many.
Meanwhile, the crazy uncle is doing crazy uncle things and unleashing Siberia into the
Last edited:
BKWRN29
Member
I am trying to learn. Is the blue line the freeze
yes that is exactly what we want this far out. Northwest shift is gonna get its way
To much cold is bad. I can’t think of a time we have gotten snow when the temps weren't just at the freezing mark.
Yep, we’ve all got some cold temps this week to get the ground temps nice and ready. It also is some really cold air to come with the weekend system. A lot of us are due and last nights UKMET/Euro started the trend that is continuing at 12z. Hopefully we add some eps members and have another similar euro run. I don’t necessarily want to be buried in digital snow at this point in time. Keep showing me light precip to my south and in the gulf. I don’t think we deal with a suppressed storm like last years gulf coast snow. I worry more of cutting this far out. I think we sit well but many are bummed about system 1, but it was always primarily a mountain event imo.
Cad Wedge NC
Member
I smell smoke, and where there is smoke ..... There might just be a threat. Let's see what the king has to say. Got a feeling this one is going to be undecided for a few more days.
AIGFS says no on Storm #2 and #1.
i am not moved at the moment, but hopefully we get another 00z adjacent run from the euro this afternoon
That's what made the 2000 Carolina Crusher so beautiful. Twenty inches of snow with a strong arctic feed to keep it around was something I'll probably never see again. If I remember correctly, most of the meteorologists were thinking that that storm would be a non event or trivial at best for the RDU area.
