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Misc General Banter Thread

MSnowAtl said:
View attachment 182565
Lawd, from this forecast to God' ear! 🤣🤣🤣
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I mean right now even looking at both the Euro and GFS, there will be some thicker cloud cover through the late morning, and I definitely think there will be patchy flurries flying albeit light through the first half of Thursday from Atlanta and points north/northwest. Wish there was better wrap-around moisture because coupled with highs in the low 30s, accumulations wouldn’t be that hard to get from just a more concentrated band of light-moderate flurries or snow showers.
 
NBAcentel said:
I am demoralized, and those storms the GFS/AIGFS threw out don’t phase me. Bet we are cold around that time, but that’s it, just cold… I can’t remember what favorable trend until go time feels like anymore
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Same. We spend so much time trying to reel one in with so little to show for it so far. Luckily, we only need one to pan out for us. Still a little hope, but I’m tired and weary like you.
 
packfan98 said:
Same. We spend so much time trying to reel one in with so little to show for it so far. Luckily, we only need one to pan out for us. Still a little hope, but I’m tired and weary like you.
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It’s just a string of really bad luck, every small scale feature in a decent pattern has went exactly as wrong as possible recently
 
Xlhunter3 said:
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Austin Powers Doctor Evil GIF


Has it ever been studied why the GFS loves to show these big storms in the 10+ range that never happen? Euro does it every now and then, but GFS seems to have one at least one run a week.
 
Stevo24 said:
I think it’s really time after this winter is over to really sit back and have a discussion on is this really the new normal. Not just a phase or a dry spell but could this really be how it is from now on? We could be very well looking at the end of winter weather as we know it for a lot of us. Now sure something random will eventually pop up one of these years again and give us a few inches. But I think things are changing for the worst.
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Yeah it seems like it is. The only way we have any chance anymore is either a blocked in wedge with a good high to the northeast or a big frontal passage with an over running system, but those are so few and unlikely now that it seems a dream only. I don't even have any hope left.
RSG said:
Its La Nina Stevo. I 100% guarantee you that. They aren't all warm, they aren't all dry, but getting one that's not at least one or the other is hard. I hate them with a passion. I don't think the way its been for the last 4 years is the new normal. But I certainly don't believe we'll ever see anything like we used to see in our childhood either. And anyone saying this isn't at least partially to blame for the snowfall averages falling off the cliff are lying to themselves.View attachment 182516
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But we had an El Nino a few years ago and it was worse. We also had a ton of -NAO a few winters ago but there was no cold tap so it did nothing. There is just no way to win anymore.
Drizzle Snizzle said:
Yeah that's why I laugh at people who say it's only January, as if Winter lasts until April in the south.
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Or that December cold is "bonus". You take any chance at all and hope it works out; it's likely our only chance.
 
Iceagewhereartthou said:
Yeah it seems like it is. The only way we have any chance anymore is either a blocked in wedge with a good high to the northeast or a big frontal passage with an over running system, but those are so few and unlikely now that it seems a dream only. I don't even have any hope left.

But we had an El Nino a few years ago and it was worse. We also had a ton of -NAO a few winters ago but there was no cold tap so it did nothing. There is just no way to win anymore.

Or that December cold is "bonus". You take any chance at all and hope it works out; it's likely our only chance.
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I remember a few years back we had supposedly the best setup possible to get snow in central NC and all the local TV mets were predicting above average snow that winter. I don't think we had anything. If we did it was less than 3 inches. Every since then all the local mets have predicted below average snow and they have been right.
 
Look I’m a simple man. All I ask is to give me one good storm where I can actually enjoy tracking it for 3-4 days leading up to it. Then the night before said event let me sit by the bonfire and refresh this website repeatedly with excitement. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. These next two events are done in my book. Let’s lock in that big CAD storm end of the month and call it a winter.
 
Stevo24 said:
Look I’m a simple man. All I ask is to give me one good storm where I can actually enjoy tracking it for 3-4 days leading up to it. Then the night before said event let me sit by the bonfire and refresh this website repeatedly with excitement. I don’t think that’s too much to ask. These next two events are done in my book. Let’s lock in that big CAD storm end of the month and call it a winter.
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one of us. This is the fun we all used to experience annually. There’s no way I’d be a winter weather addict if I had been a kid growing up in this climate. I wouldn’t be here.
 
The problem is 99 percent of the time cold. But the past 2 winters so far, thats not been the case here. Its moisture. We all remeber last winter. This year, ive had actual flakes, not ice fall 4 seperate times and its only Jan 11th. Problem is i can spit out more qpf than whats available.
We keep cold around, sooner or latter the moisture will show up.
Price you pay rolling dice northern stream dominant. But seeing Canada flooded from Thanksgiving to March with a pac firehouse is way way worse. No hope.
 
I dunno about over there but I always heard people who know what they are talking about out here saying fear the second year Nina... It has had a horrible history here and well here we are...

To me other than that week in December something has been off ever since about September. Way too warm and dry. We didn't have the fronts coming through like we normally do in the fall. This didn't just start with the Christmas torch. The whole vibe just hasn't been there

I mean when I go look at places I went to in previous winters and it's not even really snowing there... yeah...
 
BIG FROSTY said:
Tidbit from JB,

So we are in rare territory here. And you should appreciate that

Even if it doesnt snow a foot, to have a 10 day period like this cold in phase 6/7 that has happened only 1 time in 50 year

compday_T07Kjpxuz7.gif

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Frosty,
I always appreciate and savor every millisecond of cold in the hot/humid Deep South. It actually invigorates me when I’m walking!

I’ve posted here about how there have been a # of cold phase 6s in Jan in the SE. JB’s 1986 lead to a short period of intense cold including mid single digit lows in the SE! Jan of 2014’s phase 6 was also very cold though the coldest low wasn’t quite as cold. But it lasted longer. Those were during La Nada.

But that’s not all. El Niño Jan ph 6 had some very cold periods along with snow in 1977 and 2003.

And most importantly, La Niña had its share, too, that included snow: 1976 and 2011.

Models are near unanimous in predicting phase 6 lasting through Jan 21st. Per the image below, the current phase 6 started on Jan 5th. So, if the models verify well, this could end up as a 17 day long phase 6:
IMG_6949.gif

How would a 17 day long phase 6 compare to other phase 6s?

-This would obliterate the longest on record fully within met. winter, which is 13 days set in 1999 (1/30-2/11) (also La Niña)

-The longest on record fully within Jan is the 11 days of 2005 (1/9-19).

-The longest on record fully within Jan during La Niña is the 10 days of 1976 (1/13-22).
 
I welcome anyone on this forum who is writing off threats to revisit the 12/8/17 thread. I understand we fail and trend away from snow more then we trends toward it, but ALL of our accumulating snow events never look good or “locked in” from a long ways out. They all come and go but tend to lock into a snowy outlook 60-84 hours out. You’re absolutely foolish to write anything off when we have cold air around and lots of energy flying around but most of us live and die by each and every OP run, me included.

That 12/8/17 thread is gold. I’ll also never forget March 2009. That event didn’t start showing until like 24-36 hours out. They don’t call them ULL weatherman woes for nothing. We all want the same thing, at least most of us 😂
 
Parker said:
I welcome anyone on this forum who is writing off threats to revisit the 12/8/17 thread. I understand we fail and trend away from snow more then we trends toward it, but ALL of our accumulating snow events never look good or “locked in” from a long ways out. They all come and go but tend to lock into a snowy outlook 60-84 hours out. You’re absolutely foolish to write anything off when we have cold air around and lots of energy flying around but most of us live and die by each and every OP run, me included.

That 12/8/17 thread is gold. I’ll also never forget March 2009. That event didn’t start showing until like 24-36 hours out. They don’t call them ULL weatherman woes for nothing. We all want the same thing, at least most of us 😂
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You got the link for that thread ? I am sure a few people would enjoy to check it out.
 
TheBatman said:
You got the link for that thread ? I am sure a few people would enjoy to check it out.
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Is this what you’re looking for? I found it sitting on the first page of archives:

Wintry - Winter Storm Dec 7-10

The models keep showing a possible winter storm next week. Latest Euro is on board. Hoping to see the first snow this winter.
southernwx.com
 
GaWx said:
Frosty,
I always appreciate and savor every millisecond of cold in the hot/humid Deep South. It actually invigorates me when I’m walking!

I’ve posted here about how there have been a # of cold phase 6s in Jan in the SE. JB’s 1986 lead to a short period of intense cold including mid single digit lows in the SE! Jan of 2014’s phase 6 was also very cold though the coldest low wasn’t quite as cold. But it lasted longer. Those were during La Nada.

But that’s not all. El Niño Jan ph 6 had some very cold periods along with snow in 1977 and 2003.

And most importantly, La Niña had its share, too, that included snow: 1976 and 2011.

Models are near unanimous in predicting phase 6 lasting through Jan 21st. Per the image below, the current phase 6 started on Jan 5th. So, if the models verify well, this could end up as a 17 day long phase 6:
View attachment 182583

How would a 17 day long phase 6 compare to other phase 6s?

-This would obliterate the longest on record fully within met. winter, which is 13 days set in 1999 (1/30-2/11) (also La Niña)

-The longest on record fully within Jan is the 11 days of 2005 (1/9-19).

-The longest on record fully within Jan during La Niña is the 10 days of 1976 (1/13-22).
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Good stuff Larry! I appreciate all the hard work you put in.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
GFS caving to the Euro aka the Thursday storm is finally dead apparently.

That's the problem with these NS dominated systems, with big synoptic systems like the standard Miller A or Miller B, you know there's definitely going to be a storm relatively far out the problem is with p-type and how much.

With NS systems you can trend from having a decent event to straight up nothing within twenty four hours, like what just happened.
 
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