NBAcentel
Member
Ridge axis out west was further east this EPS run, over B.C
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
trackersacker
Member
Admittedly I’m not a fan of losing the -NAO but maybe that’s not gonna happen.
NBAcentel
Member
Hopefully SN means start to go up soon 
ducketta27
Member
Wouldn’t we rather the cold shoot down a bit further west and bleed east giving us that negative tilt and possible boom scenario if the southern stream is alive?
They are right in line with what good ole JB has been saying for a few weeks now. JB has been saying warm up until close to Jan 15th for a while. We shall see if they are right
The model consensus is suggesting a good chance for the Jan MJO to stay inside the circle for 20+ days. Only the following Jans since 1975 were on or inside the circle for 20+ days (note that it’s been 23 years since the last one due to the MJO avg amp increasing):
1977, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2003
Of these 8 Jans in the E US, 1977, 1981, 1982, 1994, and 2003 were cold while 1996 and 2000 were NN to slightly BN. Only 1980 was AN and it was only modestly AN. That one had its MJO the furthest right of the eight Jans mainly on or inside the circle with none in phases 7, 8, or 1. Of its 31 days, 25 were in phases 4 or 5.
So, none of the 8 were anywhere near a torch.
Here’s the composite for the other Jans near the endpoints and in between: MJO outside circle 12+ days
1977, 1980, 1981, 1982, 1994, 1996, 2000, 2003
Of these 8 Jans in the E US, 1977, 1981, 1982, 1994, and 2003 were cold while 1996 and 2000 were NN to slightly BN. Only 1980 was AN and it was only modestly AN. That one had its MJO the furthest right of the eight Jans mainly on or inside the circle with none in phases 7, 8, or 1. Of its 31 days, 25 were in phases 4 or 5.
So, none of the 8 were anywhere near a torch.
Here’s the composite for the other Jans near the endpoints and in between: MJO outside circle 12+ days
I mean it’s possible but more times than not in that scenario we’ll have to deal with a WAR/SER at least initially
Good stuff man. Thanks for all you do
tennessee storm
Member
Be a lot change in climate even since most those years mentioned
Well once the cold surges south, you'll want a little SER to prevent cold and dry. Sometimes a little SER can be a good thing
olhausen
Member
We’ve had like 6-7 days above normal for the month. Last 2 days here the high hasn’t gone above 33 until today.
There are some banger Arctic outbreaks in there, just by memory. I suppose I should stop rooting for an MJO adventure solidly out of the COD into 8-1-2 based on this.
rburrel2
Member
Well they can't go down from 0, so that's good.
They are going all in with mentioning 2011 and 2014. Would make a lot of us happy if we get anything similar to those 2 years.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Looks like the PNA just gets better over time, Atlantic ridge gets out of the way…not hating it.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
My research has found that on average that anywhere from modestly outside the circle to near or somewhat inside the circle for phases 8-1-2 has been colder in the E US on average in Dec/Jan vs well outside the circle tracks. My hypothesis is that perhaps that’s due to too strong of a tropical connection with a strong MJO with the stronger tropical influence blocking the cold somewhat on avg. But who knows?
However, Phase 2 strictly in Dec has been a bit colder on avg outside vs inside though both averaged chilly.
As always, these are just averages and any one case can vary a lot from the avg. The MJO like any index has plenty of value due to tendencies, but it is far from a crystal ball.
Welcome aboard, friend.
Not really. The Artic including Hudson Bay, Alaska, and Siberia, has plenty of snow and ice to bring the goods. Not to mention, thus far this winter, some of the coldest air on the planet has been camped out in Alaska and the Northwest Territories. We're just lacking the right pattern...so far.
The GEPS looks good as well out to mid-month. Though I'd like to see the ridge axis a bit further east, absent a solod -NAO. Count it in the comes in west of us and wait patiently for the eastward bleed.
Pretty much all the ensembles pop a good ridge and place a trough in the center of the US or in the east. Some of the Ops are horrible (I'm looking at you, Euro), but as long as the ensembles trend well, we're good.
Folks,
I recommend you not look at the Euro Weeklies today. I’d instead go outside and enjoy the fantastic Canadian air! And Happy New Year! May 2026 be dominated by more Canadian air! Keep in mind that the EW are essentially the extended 0Z EPS. The 12Z EPS trended better with the western ridge and that won’t be reflected on the EW.
I recommend you not look at the Euro Weeklies today. I’d instead go outside and enjoy the fantastic Canadian air! And Happy New Year! May 2026 be dominated by more Canadian air! Keep in mind that the EW are essentially the extended 0Z EPS. The 12Z EPS trended better with the western ridge and that won’t be reflected on the EW.
Yeh was about to post it in here but decided not too because I didn’t wanna be a buzzkill. Lmao
There’s no buzz to kill lol we are used to it. I wouldn’t be surprised if the entire map was in flames.
It’s not terrible. It’s just hard to beat the run yesterday which was one of the best ones of the Winter. Keeps cold bottled up where it’s been cold. Ole Lake effect snow. At this point, Lake Superior is gonna freeze over
I was perusing ice coverage earlier today. I was surprised at the lack of ice in the Great Lakes, given how cold it has been for most of December up there. On the other hand, the lake effect snow has been epic. Marquette has gotten hammered the past few days.
Very surprised honestly. I agree
SnowNiner
Member
Yeah, especially when we get cold outbreaks, the energy coming from the west can be super progressive and flat (we lost so many last year that way). Having a little WAR off the coast can keep the storm a bit amped. That's how I remember most of our wins/Miller Bs the last several years actually. Such a fine line though, because too much, it's too amped, and cuts/inland runner.
Snow is so hard.
Ah yes, the old 4 snowstorms in 2 weeks. Definitely gonna happen