NBAcentel
Member
Seems like the trend is a weaker -NAO, and it getting chopped up by the low moving east of Hudson Bay/labrador sea. Should have known, the AIFS ens has been showing this as a issue for a while 
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Pattern January Joke
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Yeah I honestly like week 3 (Jan 16-22) the most when it comes to potential for wintry weather at the moment.
Getting our -EPO lift just a bit north of Alaska, while having the late stages of a -NAO hanging on is usually the recipe that yields southern slider events and brutally cold Arctic air being thrown into N America from Siberia
Getting our -EPO lift just a bit north of Alaska, while having the late stages of a -NAO hanging on is usually the recipe that yields southern slider events and brutally cold Arctic air being thrown into N America from Siberia
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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NCWeatherNow
Member
Is this nbm blend run based off yesterday's runs still?
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Let’s hug
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So far, the GFS AI just gives us a flowing through bird fart trough 300 hours out.
Crazy cross lava flow at the end of the run. 
Wheels can't fall off of the nao if they do there isn't much else that's favorable until after day 10. This has been the whole thing for a good 5 days now not sure why its surprising that the nao losing a foot hold means less pretty runs
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
This will change a million times, but I like the trad GFS having the -EPO show up and the -NAO about to get reinforced around 1/10.
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BillyMurrayWx
Member
Models appear to still be struggling with the pattern change that is coming. I wouldn’t be surprised to see the strong -NAO to show back up as we get into January.
Psalm 148:8
Member
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There sure seems to be a lot of can kicking lately.. definitely has me worried.. 1/4, 1/9, now 3rd week of January.. it’s like a train wreck.. you can’t look away.. but ya don’t want to see it.. 
NCWeatherNow
Member
I noticed this can kicking alsoThere sure seems to be a lot of can kicking lately.. definitely has me worried.. 1/4, 1/9, now 3rd week of January.. it’s like a train wreck.. you can’t look away.. but ya don’t want to see it..
I hate to say it but they were probably struggling during the days they were showing cold. They probably have locked in now knowing our luck.
tennessee storm
Member
Still got work to do no doubt ….
This will change a million times, but I like the trad GFS having the -EPO show up and the -NAO about to get reinforced around 1/10.
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Might be time to take a few days off and check back in after New Years. Any small hope of something pre 1/10 seems to be dwindling. Hopefully that 1/10-1/20 period can deliver something fun
1) Not really can kicking when several on here have stated mid Jan and after, would be best pattern. Anything prior to that would be a bonus and 100% -NAO driven. Shane, Mitch, Eric and maybe others have stated this
2) Please keep all can kicking comments, images, gifs, etc in the banter thread
Thanks
2) Please keep all can kicking comments, images, gifs, etc in the banter thread
Thanks
Cold drops. Just drops West. But at the same time, the end of guidance is at the start of the second half of January.
That’s how you do winter weather in the Great Plains and Midwest. Great white buffalo brewing? 
You always do this. TT snowfall maps are the worst out there. Most of that on that GFS run was ice, ip and zr. Although really doesn't matter, we know it will not come to fruition
nobody asked you to do that dude. why did you do that
trackersacker
Member
I’ve got a feeling the culprit for warmer trends for next week is convection in the Indian Ocean, again. Anyone wanna weigh in on that?
Need this trough to trend back stronger. Need a big wave break to feed the 50/50 low and keep block fed above it. If this happens we’ll get some fantasy runs for this earlier timeframe. Without it, well, you’re looking at it.
-EPO pops but a big trough is dropped into the west with a smaller one moving east towards Newfoundland. Need the bigger of the two ejected southeastward or at least eastward to feed the block/mute the ridge. It was nice to see some higher heights toward AK that run though.
There's no better illustration of why viewing operational models beyond 6-7 days is for entertainment purposes only. And a reminder that ensembles are comprised of many wild guesses rather than one. 24 hours apart!
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
That's how you get winter weather in New Mexico too.
NBAcentel
Member
Obvious trend that’s killing us is the more eastward troughing out west, pumping in mild pacific air 
trackersacker
Member
The price we pay for killing the Aleutian ridge
Is this good?
At least initiallyThe price we pay for killing the Aleutian ridge
24 hours ago, it was trending the other way. In mid December, it was trending this way. I bet in a few days, we'll all be high-fiving again.
NBAcentel
Member
Yeah this still hasn’t backed up or anything on the better modeling, still on track it seems for a tall PNA spike
The first 10 days of the month now look well above average for most of us. Lots of 60s and 70s on all the globals. Its going to take a frigid later part of January to end up below average. Unless it flips again of course..
Unfortunately it just takes a little longer than we hoped to re-shuffle the pacific. A week or so ago I was worried we were going to be fighting that stout npac ridge all winter but looks like we could shake that.
NBAcentel
Member
It’s Looking rather stable on modeling, other then regular GEFS. That’s for sure 