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Pattern January Joke

tennessee storm said:
Yeah , but by then what phase will
Mjo be in. That’s a major player
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Seeing pretty consistently stay in COD mostly on the left side in guidance. I’m beginning to wonder if it ends up like 2013-14 where in went in COD on the left side in December and pretty much stayed there until spring
 
Mitch West said:
Yeh we about to cook here. Another one following. About to see what the surface shows. View attachment 180110
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I said it days ago when people were can kicking with DT. We are cooking with the right ingredients in that jan 6th-10th time frame. Thats all the heck we can ask for at this range for prime climo. Id sacrifice the first marginal for the 2nd big dog!
 
Oconeexman said:
I said it days ago when people were can kicking with DT. We are cooking with the right ingredients in that jan 6th-10th time frame. Thats all the heck we can ask for at this range for prime climo. Id sacrifice the first marginal for the 2nd big dog!
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Facts! H5 says it all. Models will eventually show something. It's a matter of time and we're in prime climo for everyone.
 
af300267660fe1990cfc7c026f813ee5.gif

Euro did spur off some mixed precip with that trough dropping south before the surface low started to intensify off the Delmarva.


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LukeBarrette said:
Looks good but need to shift this west some. Don’t want a late bloomer and only New England gets in on the action
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Yeh the trough axis is not great at all. I think the period after this will need to be watched also with an active Southern jet.
 
the 10 day storm on the euro didn't pop because of diffuse surface features

1766869874540.png
lower heights over the entire eastern third won't cut the mustard from a dynamics standpoint. need those northeasterlies to drive warm air advection aloft. that's why the only place snowing in this map, despite the coastal, is michigan (northeasterlies, tight isobars, veering wind profile). by the time the shortwave rolls in we're a day late and a dollar short.

certainly room to clean and tighten this look up between now and then. it's an explosive setup if we play it right, but to be clear, a lot needs to be played right. personally, i would have withheld honking about this if i had a social media following and let it breathe for another suite. let's get a big jump in eps snow average, ingest a weenie run or two, simply see some proof of concept. i think our modeling universe is large enough now for bona fide threats to throw a bone around this range. i agree with allan that a cold air source would be helpful to raise pressures to our north, it would tighten this look up some.
 
We've had discussion on this, but I think the key in early Jan is to get the NAO to bully the pattern. You can see the increasing trend here on the EPS on Jan 8th with the ridging nosing up into Davis Strait. Get that trend to continue and we'll have a better chance of the pattern across the lower 48 to back up, and for the storm track to drop farther south. And I think the Euro / EPS is the model suite that will be the leader with the pattern prediction over the N Atlantic - the one to follow.

Dec 27 EPS Trend.gif
 
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