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Pattern NC Only Thread

I mean just a whiff of downslope flow sends KMRN to the sun on days like this. They might go for 77+
 
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70-degree Christmas a sign winter is losing its cool

Since 1970, average winter temperatures in the Triangle have increased about 5.6 degrees. The region now experiences roughly 17 more winter days above normal each year compared with the 1970s.
www.wral.com www.wral.com

Since 1970, average winter temperatures in the Triangle have increased about 5.6 degrees. The region now experiences roughly 17 more winter days above normal each year compared with the 1970s.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Good luck getting anything close to the NDFD grids to verify Friday afternoon in NC.

Even the HRRR, which over mixes and underestimates CAD can’t get us out of the mid-upper 40s

View attachment 179834

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Lol this aged badly

nam-nest-nc-t2m_f-1766728800-1766772000-1766772000-40.gif


Likely related to the last second north shift with this system over the NE US which ofc is mostly being forced by warm advection.

nam-nest-ne-snow_24hr_kuchera-1766664000-1766844000-1766844000-40.gif
 
packfan98 said:
Let NYC sweat this one out. It’s definitely no fun to have your backyard lose a big storm to the north or the mix line ruin everything at the last minute.
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Yeah been there done that it seems like a hundred times over the years. I'd much rather be on this side of the boundary watching my temps go up several or more degrees w/ inconsequential sensible impacts overall, other than just having a slightly nicer day to be outside
 
Webberweather53 said:
Lol this aged badly

View attachment 179925


Likely related to the last second north shift with this system over the NE US which ofc is mostly being forced by warm advection.

View attachment 179926
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This reminds me of that storm that hit NYC/Long Island when my fam and I went up in like March of 2019, I think they were supposed to get eight something inches of snow and it ended up being mainly sleet.
 
SimeonNC said:
This reminds me of that storm that hit NYC/Long Island when my fam and I went up in like March of 2019, I think they were supposed to get eight something inches of snow and it ended up being mainly sleet.
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I was there in February 2018 and it was a strange storm... Central Park had about 4 inches. I mean the most beautiful scene you could imagine. A couple miles away in Midtown very little evidence it even snowed haha

The city proper doesn't do well when it's borderline usually
 
What are these other two map blobs surrounding our beautiful state outline?
 
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Reactions: SD
I wouldn’t get to freaked out by the end of the EPS yet, it’s slowly retrograding and headed for a +PNA. What would cause big issues is a overextension that last longer then modeled. That’s probably the fail point. But this looks fine. The PT is slowly backing away, raising heights out west, and you can see a slow migration of the TPV towards Hudson Bay IMG_1209.gif
 
NBAcentel said:
I wouldn’t get to freaked out by the end of the EPS yet, it’s slowly retrograding and headed for a +PNA. What would cause big issues is a overextension that last longer then modeled. That’s probably the fail point. But this looks fine. The PT is slowly backing away, raising heights out west, and you can see a slow migration of the TPV towards Hudson Bay View attachment 179994
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Thought the exact same thing. I think it’ll be fine
 
NBAcentel said:
I wouldn’t get to freaked out by the end of the EPS yet, it’s slowly retrograding and headed for a +PNA. What would cause big issues is a overextension that last longer then modeled. That’s probably the fail point. But this looks fine. The PT is slowly backing away, raising heights out west, and you can see a slow migration of the TPV towards Hudson Bay View attachment 179994
Click to expand...
I worry this is a look that will look acceptable in a mean but is likely ugly once the spread reduces. Since it's likely a transient pattern it's not that big of a deal
 
Think the 1/4 to 1/6 period might have some legs for some wintry mischief. It's been showing up off and on with the models for a while now.
 
jackendrickwx said:
Headed up the hill to WNC this morning. Cloud ceiling on the escarpment at maybe 2000’ ASL, but I bet it’s higher when you crest the hill in Hendersonville


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Spent the day in/around Waynesville where it got up to 65 under increasingly sunny skies. Temp went down 11 degrees between there and KAVL. Got into fog near Saluda at 2000’ ASL and then drove down out of it. Some fun local temp stuff today
 
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