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Misc General Banter Thread

xshare said:
Question for those of you who have been doing this for a while — what’s the shortest timeframe/lead time that a winter storm has appeared on the models and ended up verifying?

I mean going from basically nothing, nada for that date on any models (except maybe a f+20 inchesantasy ensemble member here and there or fantasy storm in the LR if you were to look far enough back), to suddenly a winter storm on the horizon and it actually happens?
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January 2000. Not much forecasted for RDU on the prior day or even into the evening 6pm local tv weather broadcast. By the 11pm news cast though everything had changed. Even Fishel our local met expert missed it. My location ended up with +20 inches
 
xshare said:
Question for those of you who have been doing this for a while — what’s the shortest timeframe/lead time that a winter storm has appeared on the models and ended up verifying?

I mean going from basically nothing, nada for that date on any models (except maybe a fantasy ensemble member here and there or fantasy storm in the LR if you were to look far enough back), to suddenly a winter storm on the horizon and it actually happens?
Click to expand...

For us in Bama we have had several in the last 15 years.

Christmas 2010 was one. While we all tracked the storm for days, we were "done" in Alabama and out of the game until literally Christmas morning when the HRRR suddenly decided to keep dropping the snow line south. Got 3-4" and a historic white Christmas .

Then you have The Snowjam 2014. We watched that for days as well and on the morning of, it looked like maybe a flurry at most. Some of us had our suspicions and suddenly boom, nuff said.

The gold standard though for my location at least is without a doubt December 2017. Three days away, wiff. Two days, maybe something. The day before the ensembles began to play with a slushy 2-3. Then late on the evening before the CMC decided to nuke the area with a huge swaft of 8-14" and the rest is history.
 
xshare said:
Question for those of you who have been doing this for a while — what’s the shortest timeframe/lead time that a winter storm has appeared on the models and ended up verifying?

I mean going from basically nothing, nada for that date on any models (except maybe a fantasy ensemble member here and there or fantasy storm in the LR if you were to look far enough back), to suddenly a winter storm on the horizon and it actually happens?
Click to expand...
I only started following the weather about a decade ago, so I can’t speak for January 2000 or 2010, but the most insane one was mid-January 2018. We were expected to see a dusting to an inch leading up to the event. Then once we got into the NAM range, every run consistently increased totals and I say close to a foot.

IMG_9252.png
 
xshare said:
Question for those of you who have been doing this for a while — what’s the shortest timeframe/lead time that a winter storm has appeared on the models and ended up verifying?

I mean going from basically nothing, nada for that date on any models (except maybe a fantasy ensemble member here and there or fantasy storm in the LR if you were to look far enough back), to suddenly a winter storm on the horizon and it actually happens?
Click to expand...
I’ve been doing this for twenty five years at this point. In my experience, the big ones bare their teeth early and remain fairly consistent. There are outliers but the biggest storms we’ve had around here for years have been slam dunks for days(March 2009, February 2004, February 2014, January 2010).
 
Stevo24 said:
Dang are we already can kicking to the middle-end of January? I thought we were gonna have a chance here in a week or 2.
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Thats just DT's thoughts. Mitch and Fro and others have shown theres a chance in the Jan 6-9th time frame. There's alot of shortwave energy flying around and cold air. This far out that's all you can ask for are the ingredients to be on the table. There's alot to work out like how strong is the blocking is gonna be, where the high pressure sets up for cad regions and how far the energy digs to the south, the tilt of the energy(track)and the overall timing.
We all know models suck past 3-5 days. But when they all have a chance with a few tweaks then it becomes noteworthy at this range. At least there's no record breaking torch dominated being projected for the first week of 2026.
 
BullCityWx said:
I see folks all the time talk about wasting cold. The fact is, I’d rather waste the cold than have a fifty degree ground temp and struggle to stick with then immediately melt.

Some of yall don’t think things through
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And the other obvious thing is, you're not wasting anything anyway. It's not going to snow every time it's cold. But it's most certainly not going to snow if it's not cold.
 
Rain Cold said:
And the other obvious thing is, you're not wasting anything anyway. It's not going to snow every time it's cold. But it's most certainly not going to snow if it's not cold.
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And then there are people like myself that prefer cold (I mean the SE version) whenever I can get it. To me crisp, dry Canadian air feels so good. I love being out in it. It energizes me. Besides, wintry precip hardly ever occurs way down here. A majority of winters here have had none and many of the ones that do just have a trace. I had zero wintry precip for the 7 years between the big 2018 and 2025 winter storms. The cold is usually too dry for precip here. It’s obviously much easier for cold to get down here.
 
CaryWx said:
January 2000. Not much forecasted for RDU on the prior day or even into the evening 6pm local tv weather broadcast. By the 11pm news cast though everything had changed. Even Fishel our local met expert missed it. My location ended up with +20 inches
Click to expand...


I enjoyed watching this from the man himself. Pretty good deep dive into what caused the big miss.
 
Oconeexman said:
Thats just DT's thoughts. Mitch and Fro and others have shown theres a chance in the Jan 6-9th time frame. There's alot of shortwave energy flying around and cold air. This far out that's all you can ask for are the ingredients to be on the table. There's alot to work out like how strong is the blocking is gonna be, where the high pressure sets up for cad regions and how far the energy digs to the south, the tilt of the energy(track)and the overall timing.
We all know models suck past 3-5 days. But when they all have a chance with a few tweaks then it becomes noteworthy at this range. At least there's no record breaking torch dominated being projected for the first week of 2026.
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Temps I seeing on weeklies euro look quiet bit above average till least mid January . Yeah can kickingnhas begun
 
Twister said:
Let me guess nothing gonna happen now till 2nd half of Jan? Then when we get to the 2nd half of Jan it will be Fantastic Feb incoming? Y'all never learn it's just grasping for straws around here
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I honestly don't care whether someone is overly positive or overly negative when it comes to winter. Neither are ideal, but whatever; it's fine.

But, just out of curiosity, what do you enjoy about posting here? The only thing you and a few others EVER do is comment on how something isn't going to happen or how dumb it is for others to talk about weather.

This is a weather board. It isn't a psychological discussion board. If it is, then I have some analysis I'd be happy to add about a few members here.

I'm serious. What joy or value is there in waiting in the weeds just to snipe at everyone who wants to discuss weather?

Making a comment one time, MAYBE even twice, is normal. Constantly saying the same thing over and over leads us back into the psychological realm, which we probably shouldn't get into in the open forum.

It's tangent to the point that I made the other day about being passive-aggressive. Neither of these are all that appropriate or productive within a weather forum.
 
Rain Cold said:
I honestly don't care whether someone is overly positive or overly negative when it comes to winter. Neither are ideal, but whatever; it's fine.

But, just out of curiosity, what do you enjoy about posting here? The only thing you and a few others EVER do is comment on how something isn't going to happen or how dumb it is for others to talk about weather.

This is a weather board. It isn't a psychological discussion board. If it is, then I have some analysis I'd be happy to add about a few members here.

I'm serious. What joy or value is there in waiting in the weeds just to snipe at everyone who wants to discuss weather?

Making a comment one time, MAYBE even twice, is normal. Constantly saying the same thing over and over leads us back into the psychological realm, which we probably shouldn't get into in the open forum.

It's tangent to the point that I made the other day about being passive-aggressive. Neither of these are all that appropriate or productive within a weather forum.
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They are robots.
 
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT 📣

For those who want to troll instead of participate in a genuine weather discussion on a weather forum, you will be getting a one week timeout.

Too many good members are having their experience lessened because of trolling comments. We often overlook them and refrain from taking the bait and engaging with your posts. However, we’ve reached a point where we need to tighten the reins a bit.

Go use your own social media accounts to spew your nonsense. Don’t use this this platform.
 
packfan98 said:
PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENT 📣

For those who want to troll instead of participate in a genuine weather discussion on a weather forum, you will be getting a one week timeout.

Too many good members are having their experience lessened because of trolling comments. We often overlook them and refrain from taking the bait and engaging with your posts. However, we’ve reached a point where we need to tighten the reins a bit.

Go use your own social media accounts to spew your nonsense. Don’t use this this platform.
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So you're not for free speech that's only for all you Snow weenies???
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
I enjoy tracking snow in other parts of the country as well. I will be watching cams in the NYC area later today as they could get 6 inches of snow !
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Same here! I don’t think she’s on tv anymore but I used to like watching the weather reports from Brittney Merlot in Wisconsin and the far northern tier of those areas. Weather gets wild there and I’d say even more so seeing what’s happening in the Sierra Nevada area getting feet of snow and hurricane force winds in the high elevations.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
xshare said:
Question for those of you who have been doing this for a while — what’s the shortest timeframe/lead time that a winter storm has appeared on the models and ended up verifying?

I mean going from basically nothing, nada for that date on any models (except maybe a fantasy ensemble member here and there or fantasy storm in the LR if you were to look far enough back), to suddenly a winter storm on the horizon and it actually happens?
Click to expand...
this is a great question.

at this point a new, distinct snowfall swath appearing out of the ether is difficult. the modeling is simply too good. you may disagree with that analysis, but years of both new model offerings and incremental improvements on legacy models means you're rarely going to see a storm pull a fast one. the holy grail example is jan 2000. that storm had such epic underlying meteorology that i don't think it's a useful "what if" to base anything off of. the other example in this mold that someone else pointed out was january 2018, which was a very high leverage event because of the upper level dynamics. small tweaks in tilt of the shortwave made all the difference. you could make an argument that the recent storm on dec 8th was a diet version of this. that storm ramped up in a hurry for folks in southern virginia.

the contra to this- we almost always know when the big dogs are coming. for every storm in rarified air around here- you can probably locate a forum thread started at least 7 days before onset. While we've had some mid tier events that past couple of years, our last true big dog was dec. 2018 and that's a shame.

what's much more common is overperformance on the norther flank of the forecast area- always the result of a short term amplification trend and correlating trend northwest. this isn't novel information. i think a source of frustration over the last few years has been a new medium term trend that suppresses and shears long term threats. whether or not this is a terrible coincidence or systematic- i don't know know. but we haven't had the luxury of a storm trending our way in a long time. some short term ticks up - sure - but nothing satiating.

the gulf coast blizzard last year was likely our last best shot of a board wide big dog and the most frustrating storm of this decade. and that's not to diminish its impact at the coast. it set a lot of records that will likely never be broken. but- and long range modeling supported this- that was our shot. that was our shot at the storm that we talk about in the same post as march 1980, january 2000, february 2014, name your storm here, and that opportunity got pissed away. real shame. i guess this is the contra to what you are asking about.
 
BullCityWx said:
I’ve been doing this for twenty five years at this point. In my experience, the big ones bare their teeth early and remain fairly consistent. There are outliers but the biggest storms we’ve had around here for years have been slam dunks for days(March 2009, February 2004, February 2014, January 2010).
Click to expand...

I would also add December 8-10, 2018 for central NC? If I remember correctly, the models seemed fairly accurate about 6 days out. Now, locally the close range forecast was for a lot less then what we actually received in the Raleigh/Durham area.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
jeremyt said:


I enjoyed watching this from the man himself. Pretty good deep dive into what caused the big miss.
Click to expand...


Yes, I talk about this storm all the time and probably too much. I mean, to date it’s the most snow I’ve seen and had in my yard in person, but you’re correct. While Fishel missed it he definitely does a great job describing how it was missed and as far as that night at 11:00 pm he became very serious about the situation. For me WRAL hasn’t been the same after he left.


Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk
 
Ross said:
this is a great question.

at this point a new, distinct snowfall swath appearing out of the ether is difficult. the modeling is simply too good. you may disagree with that analysis, but years of both new model offerings and incremental improvements on legacy models means you're rarely going to see a storm pull a fast one. the holy grail example is jan 2000. that storm had such epic underlying meteorology that i don't think it's a useful "what if" to base anything off of. the other example in this mold that someone else pointed out was january 2018, which was a very high leverage event because of the upper level dynamics. small tweaks in tilt of the shortwave made all the difference. you could make an argument that the recent storm on dec 8th was a diet version of this. that storm ramped up in a hurry for folks in southern virginia.

the contra to this- we almost always know when the big dogs are coming. for every storm in rarified air around here- you can probably locate a forum thread started at least 7 days before onset. While we've had some mid tier events that past couple of years, our last true big dog was dec. 2018 and that's a shame.

what's much more common is overperformance on the norther flank of the forecast area- always the result of a short term amplification trend and correlating trend northwest. this isn't novel information. i think a source of frustration over the last few years has been a new medium term trend that suppresses and shears long term threats. whether or not this is a terrible coincidence or systematic- i don't know know. but we haven't had the luxury of a storm trending our way in a long time. some short term ticks up - sure - but nothing satiating.

the gulf coast blizzard last year was likely our last best shot of a board wide big dog and the most frustrating storm of this decade. and that's not to diminish its impact at the coast. it set a lot of records that will likely never be broken. but- and long range modeling supported this- that was our shot. that was our shot at the storm that we talk about in the same post as march 1980, january 2000, february 2014, name your storm here, and that opportunity got pissed away. real shame. i guess this is the contra to what you are asking about.
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Probably an unpopular take but the gulf blizzard didn’t bother me a ton. I’m sure I was more upset in the moment but looking back, I’m happy that they got theirs. IMO, being mad about that one is a little bit like being mad 15 seed St Peter’s went to the elite eight a few years ago. The counter argument to that is well, “St Peter’s” beat us in the round of 32

Either way (and yeah this isn’t super related to the prior conversation) i was happy for gulf coast folks with that one. Very very very very rare event that they’ll tell their grandkids about. We’ll have more chances than they will
 
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