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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 šŸŽ„ ā„ļø

A half hour ago I finished walking at the park in 35 invigorating degrees. To sort of borrow a phrase from DT, yes, I was the only sick, twisted cold wx freak out there walking. But I was bundled up and had extra energy giving me an extra spring in my step. Winds were calm with clear skies allowing for Gainesville, FL-like ideal radiation. I could even see some cool looking steam fog over water. Dewpoints were only a couple of degrees lower.
 
Rain Cold said:
I don't see any meteorological reason that the pattern is going to get stuck in suck mode for the rest of the winter. If we were in a raging NIna, then maybe. But we're not. We don't know what tropical forcing or mountain torque or angular momentum or the stratosphere or the Pacific jet is going to do the entire rest of the winter, particularly when there's no really dominant pattern driver.

I'm certainly not going to sit here and seriously pretend that it's going to be wall to wall cold. It won't be. And maybe, finally, after a month, the models are going to be right in the LR and break it all down. Fine. Might happen. They're eventually going to be right. It's a game of runs. And the cold will come back. I just think it would be better to let the cold pattern actually break down before spending too much energy worrying about when it will come back after a future warm-up might maybe set in 7-10 days out from now.

Snow is a different story. That takes a lot more luck for most of us. And we usually only get a 5 day or less lead for that.
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Thatā€™s a fair assessment, weā€™ve been cold ( statistically) longer than normal and we should have figured it to end with a warm phase. Iā€™m still optimistic but itā€™s not looking good for the rest of Dec into early Jan! Expectation is low considering the past 3 years!
 
0z GFS was the last operational model to show at least cool(ish) temps for Christmas. But the 6z has joined the others and now shows this for Christmas morning:

1765365352759.png
The cold air to the NW would eventually sweep through us (days later). Hopefully we go back to the 0z look of cool temps; otherwise get your AC units ready.
 
Tough pattern setting up. Ad I said and got trashed for, We really needed to cash in when we had the chance but most of us didnā€™t. I see weā€™re already punting January. February hasnā€™t been kind to us in 10 years. Just tough to see. Pattern looks brutal and long lasting. Maybe we can get lucky a couple times during peak climo in January. I personally have no faith in February.


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Bigedd09 said:
Tough pattern setting up. Ad I said and got trashed for, We really needed to cash in when we had the chance but most of us didnā€™t. I see weā€™re already punting January. February hasnā€™t been kind to us in 10 years. Just tough to see. Pattern looks brutal and long lasting. Maybe we can get lucky a couple times during peak climo in January. I personally have no faith in February.


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How long have you lived in Huntersville??

Feburary has delivered some of our area's best snow storms. My gut feeling having watched these models and the imput from others is that we'll have this slight warm up for a week or so, but we just seem to be in a cold pattern this year. For some reason I have a strong feeling (hopeium) we're going to score this season. Can't say I've ever seen a blockbuster storm in December. Always been January/February in my life
 
DTB247 said:
How long have you lived in Huntersville??

Feburary has delivered some of our area's best snow storms. My gut feeling having watched these models and the imput from others is that we'll have this slight warm up for a week or so, but we just seem to be in a cold pattern this year. For some reason I have a strong feeling (hopeium) we're going to score this season. Can't say I've ever seen a blockbuster storm in December. Always been January/February in my life
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Since 2002. It was great until about 2016 or so. Been a spring month since.
 
48b4aa6daa3ea723cebf50636947125a.jpg
I hope Iā€™m reading this chart right, but the the tropical forcing looks to get better around Christmas which may help cause a jet retraction, but the effects of it wouldnā€™t probably start till early January. Someone correct me if Iā€™m wrong.


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Iā€™ll get called a weenie for this and I might be completely wrong here, but punting all the way until February on December 9th and 10th is hilarious. I really donā€™t care how much model agreement there is in the long range, these things and I mean all of them, have not been good with flip flopping and reversing in the longer range repeatedly and that goes back to when we used to get cold showing up only for it to flip in the medium to short range. Am I saying we wonā€™t warm up and have above average days here and there? No. But I also donā€™t think you can say for certain on 12/10 that we are going to be torching even a week from now much less over 2 weeks away during Christmas or that we have no shot for snow. And certainly not in January either. Just my 2 cents and I could be completely wrong and Iā€™ll be the first to admit it if I am. But my reasoning is I just donā€™t trust modeling anymore beyond 5-6 days max. Idc if youā€™re ensembles, operationals, AIā€™s, etc. I havenā€™t for a couple of years now. Maybe they are right for once and itā€™s stank weather all winter long. But so far if any of them would have been even remotely right past day 10 I would be on an ongoing streak of 60 and 70 degree days with no end in sight. Iā€™ve been in the 30ā€™s for highs on multiple occasions. Iā€™ll never go out on limb for snow forecasting because thatā€™s like 5 levels above even forecasting pattern recognition and trying to see about cold or warm air which we havenā€™t a clue about anymore. You can get a monster snow or ice storm in the middle of absolutely awful patterns and a complete nothing burger if you had 6 straight weeks of 30 degree highs. Just my 2 cents
 
DTB247 said:
How long have you lived in Huntersville??

Feburary has delivered some of our area's best snow storms. My gut feeling having watched these models and the imput from others is that we'll have this slight warm up for a week or so, but we just seem to be in a cold pattern this year. For some reason I have a strong feeling (hopeium) we're going to score this season. Can't say I've ever seen a blockbuster storm in December. Always been January/February in my life
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December 2017 and March 1993 are the best snowstorms Iā€™ve ever seen in Georgia ! February has been a joke in the last 10 years.
 
Freezing fog/ice fog observations across the Florida Panhandle this morning. The NWS Mobile WFO issued a freezing fog advisory right along the FL/AL border. This is the first time EVER that an NWS WFO that services Florida has issued a freezing fog advisory.

Edit: NWS Tallahassee now issued a freezing fog advisory for Jackson County in FL, the first time any Florida county has been under such an advisory
 
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Highs from GSO- getting this from NWS NOWData website
Nov.26-30
70, 49,44,44,42

Dec. 1-10
45,45,47,49,41,40,47,38,36, & 50?

Been a cold 2 weeks here in the triad. Had some snow fall which is always a bonus in December!
 
Newman said:
Freezing fog/ice fog observations across the Florida Panhandle this morning. The NWS Mobile WFO issued a freezing fog advisory right along the FL/AL border. This is the first time EVER that an NWS WFO that services Florida has issued a freezing fog advisory.

Edit: NWS Tallahassee now issued a freezing fog advisory for Jackson County in FL, the first time any Florida county has been under such an advisory
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My area, too, had a freezing fog advisory late last night although I doubt that itā€™s the first time for it here as I find it hard to believe that it to be the case this far north:

309 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025

..PATCHY FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING

AREA OBSERVATIONS, SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND WEB CAMS INDICATE THAT
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE PATCHY
FOG IS SHALLOW, BUT IS PRODUCING VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS IN ISOLATED AREAS. MUCH OF THE FOG IS FORMING AS
STEAM FOG NEAR WATERWAYS INCLUDING RIVERS, STREAMS, TIDAL CREEKS,
AND MARSHES.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS. FREEZING FOG WILL OCCUR, EVEN
PRODUCING LIGHT RIME ICE ON ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES. WHILE
LOW VISIBILITIES COULD IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY WHERE
VISIBILITIES CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES, RIME ICE
FROM FREEZING FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY IMPACT ON TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND ANY LINGERING FOG WILL
DISSIPATE, BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF DRIVING, SLOW DOWN AND LEAVE EXTRA DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU IN
CASE A SUDDEN STOP IS NEEDED.
 
Well, the pacific is modeled with the colors in the exact opposite of where we want it. Good news still is that W Can is very cold, it doesn't look like the jet is feeding directly into the AK vortex of doom anymore?, and maybe the below is easily malleable if the jet extends pushing everything east? I feel the models are indeed switching things up and we really do warm up next week leading into the holiday. What happens after that I don't know. After this weekend if the models don't flip, it may be time to start looking to January. Which isn't bad in itself, there's plenty of time for a reset after this warmup.

When Seattle and AK is cold, the SE chances are sold...

1765375272073.png
 
FallsLake said:
The last frame (day 16) on the 6z GFS looks good to me. Not perfect, but a setup like this, would push the cold southeastward. I would hate to lose Christmas (to warmth) but a turn to cold by New Years would be good.


View attachment 178683
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You would have been better served to scout the CFS if your looking for hope back half of Holliday season. 0z Has some nice winter storms for the SE.
 
Scooter said:
Highs from GSO- getting this from NWS NOWData website
Nov.26-30
70, 49,44,44,42

Dec. 1-10
45,45,47,49,41,40,47,38,36, & 50?

Been a cold 2 weeks here in the triad. Had some snow fall which is always a bonus in December!
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13 days in a row not reaching 50 degrees. Have my doubts today as clouds are thick and we are stuck on 36 degrees. SW wind is suppose to gust 30-40 mph this afternoon. So it may touch 50 for an hour at best. we shall see.
 
NCSNOW said:
You would have been better served to scout the CFS if your looking for hope back half of Holliday season. 0z Has some nice winter storms for the SE.
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Yeah, I saw the CFS. All fantasy at that range (including GFS/euro), but I would rather see cold possibilities than wall to wall warmth. That at least lets me dream.....
 
GaWx said:
My area, too, had a freezing fog advisory late last night although I doubt that itā€™s the first time for it here as I find it hard to believe that it to be the case this far north:

309 AM EST WED DEC 10 2025

..PATCHY FREEZING FOG THIS MORNING

AREA OBSERVATIONS, SATELLITE IMAGERY, AND WEB CAMS INDICATE THAT
PATCHY DENSE FOG IS IMPACTING PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST GEORGIA AND
SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA EARLY THIS MORNING. MOST OF THE PATCHY
FOG IS SHALLOW, BUT IS PRODUCING VISIBILITIES OF A QUARTER OF A
MILE OR LESS IN ISOLATED AREAS. MUCH OF THE FOG IS FORMING AS
STEAM FOG NEAR WATERWAYS INCLUDING RIVERS, STREAMS, TIDAL CREEKS,
AND MARSHES.

TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA HAVE FALLEN BELOW FREEZING AND INTO THE
UPPER 20S IN MANY LOCATIONS. FREEZING FOG WILL OCCUR, EVEN
PRODUCING LIGHT RIME ICE ON ELEVATED AND EXPOSED SURFACES. WHILE
LOW VISIBILITIES COULD IMPACT TRAVEL, ESPECIALLY WHERE
VISIBILITIES CHANGE SIGNIFICANTLY OVER SHORT DISTANCES, RIME ICE
FROM FREEZING FOG IS NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY IMPACT ON TRAVEL
CONDITIONS.

TEMPERATURES WILL RISE ABOVE FREEZING, AND ANY LINGERING FOG WILL
DISSIPATE, BETWEEN 8 AND 9 AM THIS MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF DRIVING, SLOW DOWN AND LEAVE EXTRA DISTANCE AHEAD OF YOU IN
CASE A SUDDEN STOP IS NEEDED.
Click to expand...
This is the 2nd time the Charleston WFO has issued a freezing fog advisory, the first being February 9, 2022
 
Think your gonna get back and forth first 2/3rds of winter. Rythym will flip every 10-12 days max between EC Trough/WC Ridge & Vice Versa. latest CFS shows this. We have had our stretch of EC trough/WC Ridge for 20 days if you go back into late November , as it will subside by 12/16 and they will flip. By 12/27 looks like we will have flipped back, ride it until 1/8ish and then flip back again.
 
Newman said:
This is the 2nd time the Charleston WFO has issued a freezing fog advisory, the first being February 9, 2022
Click to expand...

Thanks for that info. Do you know how long ā€œfreezing fog advisoriesā€ have existed at CHS, at Mobile, or at any NWS office for that matter?
 
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