Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️

[Ollie Williams]

Anyone have the 2010 Boxing Day storm maps? This one reminds me of it somewhat with upper level energy diving down and hitting the baroclinic zone off the coast, igniting lift and more cold air injected. Obviously, not expecting that much this time since this one does not look as dynamic or as cold.

Here's the hourly reanalysis:

PolarWx

There are some similarities, but this shortwave is not as well-phased with the northern stream, which limits the depth of ascent and overall synoptic-scale lift.

 

[Stormdoc]

Here's the hourly reanalysis:

PolarWx

There are some similarities, but this shortwave is not as well-phased with the northern stream, which limits the depth of ascent and overall synoptic-scale lift.

Thanks, I remember that one had more phasing, but even small subtle changes in the shortwave can have a major impact on sensible weather, as demonstrated by the models today between getting a couple inches of wet snow and nothing.

 

[SD]

Beautiful day

 

[NBAcentel]

18z EPS blew my high

 

[Tarheel1]

FWIW!!! Is this a good look?

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

Euro OP 18Z run is stuck at 51 hours for me on wxbell

 

[C-Money]

I think I can speak for the most of us. If you hadn’t seen the Euro most would still be ecstatic with the GFS.

That's the problem. Hard to put faith in the GFS when the Euro says differently.

 

[Rain Cold]

Higher QPF gives you your cold in this type of setup, View attachment 178127View attachment 178130View attachment 178131View attachment 178128

That's better.

View attachment 178143View attachment 178144Choose your fighter.

Either one will do. To have images like that at any point in the winter is just amazing...much less, heading into Christmas time.

 

[packfan98]

Euro OP 18Z run is stuck at 51 hours for me on wxbell

I saw the 500mb maps and the system didn’t dig as much. Less precip that the ensembles followed too from what Fro posted.

 

[bouncycorn]

 

[C-Money]

Well, well, the Euro is trying to join the party.

 

[Ollie Williams]

Keep in mind that the 18z/06z ECMWF/EPS does not do a complete 4D-Var data assimilation... only the 18z/06z GFS suite does. So if you're looking for a trend, take the 18z Euro with a grain of salt.

It's never been great with trends. I can remember the 18z suite failing while the Euro stuck on, only for it to fall in line with the others at 00z.

 

[Southern Track]

That's the problem. Hard to put faith in the GFS when the Euro says differently.

What I’m saying is the Euro forecast is better. Guess it didn’t come out that way ha

 

[NBAcentel]

geez. It’s just a endless cold firehose

 

[mx3gsr92]

Keep in mind that the 18z/06z ECMWF/EPS does not do a complete 4D-Var data assimilation... only the 18z/06z GFS suite does. So if you're looking for a trend, take the 18z Euro with a grain of salt.

It's never been great with trends. I can remember the 18z suite failing while the Euro stuck on, only for it to fall in line with the others at 00z.

So basically you're telling me to load up on milk and bread in Moyock. Thank you sir!

 

[Ollie Williams]

So basically you're telling me to load up on milk and bread in Moyock. Thank you sir!

Oh yeah, after Monday, when people talk about the Moyock Mauler of 2025, they will be talking about the one in December, not February.

 

[NBAcentel]

The AIFS ens has mean highs for the northern SE already in the mid-upper 30s to low 40s between the 15-18th and lows in the 20s, solid cold already showing up. Also has some noise, and especially around the 18th

 

[DopplerWx]

The AIFS ens has mean highs for the northern SE already in the mid-upper 30s to low 40s between the 15-18th and lows in the 20s, solid cold already showing up. Also has some noise, and especially around the 18th

With that much consistent cold we have got to be tracking threats the week before / into Christmas. Can’t ask for much more here in the se especially this time of year. I’d trade a 12” Feb snow for a 3” Christmas snow.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

GFS going for a double stretch of the SPV, the first one around 12/14 and the second 12/21


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[MRKEVIN7575]

GFS going for a double stretch of the SPV, the first one around 12/14 and the second 12/21


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Trough is still too far east currently but hopefully that will change enough west to get a formidable system for us to track

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

The AIFS ens has mean highs for the northern SE already in the mid-upper 30s to low 40s between the 15-18th and lows in the 20s, solid cold already showing up. Also has some noise, and especially around the 18th

Already preparing for another 38 degree rain here.. Never fails

 

[CaryWx]

View attachment 178152
View attachment 178151
View attachment 178150

View attachment 178153

THERE'S THE MAN!

 

[CaryWx]

GFS going for a double stretch of the SPV, the first one around 12/14 and the second 12/21

GFS going for a double stretch of the SPV, the first one around 12/14 and the second 12/21


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I love it! It's just so tumbly looking.

 

[BullCityWx]

Quite a bit of freezing fog out there tonight

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

View attachment 178152
View attachment 178151
View attachment 178150

View attachment 178153

You think we have a chance in GA here? Or at least NE GA. Right now I'm personally thinking all rain.

 

[CaryWx]

Quite a bit of freezing fog out there tonight

yeah, don't bang your head on it.

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

Trough is still too far east currently but hopefully that will change enough west to get a formidable system for us to track

This is just to illustrate how weak and disturbed the stratospheric polar vortex, the tropospheric vortex is more associated with the 500mb pattern. The SPV just allows for more cold air outbreaks and potential strong arctic ones with a lag time included.


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[NCwx1992]

Bingo!

Heading south though.

The snow is starting to die out around 30 miles from NC. From my observations:

DC 1”
Fredericksburg 3”
Richmond 2”
Petersburg 2”

i am in ashland for the night (~20 miles north of richmond), with a solid 3" around here.

and be rest assured, central NC will now get snow in 3-4 days' time because i just saw my first measurable snow of the season up here in VA just like I did this past January when i traveled up to Richmond for the Jan 5-6th fun lil system -- and then boom, four days later we finally broke our multi year snow drought in the Triangle. brought the energy back down with me.

i have powers. i shall do it again. 12/8 is happening for RDU.

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

All you can ask for at this lead. patience. she comin’

 

[trackersacker]

All you can ask for at this lead. patience. she comin’View attachment 178160

There’s that 05 analog showing up again.

05-06 was in my analog set for this winter

 

[Rain Cold]

Quite a bit of freezing fog out there tonight

Went to West Jefferson today for the Christmas art crawl. On the way back through Blowing Rock, we went through some. It was thick!

WJ was beautiful today and Frosty's was lit.

 

[C-Money]

NAM wants to join the fun.

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

I think we're all joining a game at this point of trying to predict the impossible... baja lows

Brings me back a little bit to when we tried predicting the system last year.. We all know how that went lol

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

On GFS you've got the baja low 200 hours later after rebuilding a million times like "Ight I'm outa here" as it tries going through the Gulf. This could be a timeframe to watch if we can get better NS support.

 

[Ollie Williams]

On GFS you've got the baja low 200 hours later after rebuilding a million times like "Ight I'm outa here" as it tries going through the Gulf. This could be a timeframe to watch if we can get better NS support.

Sadly the Pacific flow doesn't favor any ARs coming into the Southwest. Northwest flow for days it seems. Not my favorite flavor of winter weather, but I won't turn it down.

 

[NCHighCountryWX]

 

[NBAcentel]

It’s climo bro

 

[iwantsouthernsnow123]

It’s climo bro View attachment 178171

RGEM following the exact same thing as ICON.. The Rich really do get richer

 

[CNCsnwfan1210]

RGEM following the exact same thing as ICON.. The Rich really do get richer

RGEM does eventually drop that boundary into NC allowing for some rain/snow later on Monday


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[iwantsouthernsnow123]

RGEM does eventually drop that boundary into NC allowing for some rain/snow later on Monday


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Yeah I've accepted at this point that I'm going to be getting a nice cold rain.. I'm in Northeast GA unfortunately.