Mother Nature, How about switch it up with this next Winter weather event?
Mother Nature..
"Ight bet, this is what I got in store..."
Mother Nature..
"Ight bet, this is what I got in store..."
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
NBAcentel
Member
Icon is the furthest NE out of all modeling with the S/W trough looking at everything
I'd say take the CPC 3-4 week forecast with a truckload of kosher salt:
Not precislely date matching, but close enough.
Absolutely. lol
On the optimistic side, maybe that’s a blue norther loading at @Tarheel1 house and the lights are about to flicker down here week 5
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Next system monday is really starting to look like a NW Flow event.
C-Money
Member
NC is the new SC.
Wonder if CPC can confirm?
rburrel2
Member
Models have been hinting at a Lee side streamer of some sort Monday afternoon. Will be rain here if it even happens, but maybe northern nc foothills could get a surprise from it? Though they’re torching with a surface warm bubble too (prob a source of the lift). But the freezing level is really low there so it would reach the ground as snow I think.
And SC is the new Florida. And Florida is the new NY.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
I'll be honest, trends have been towards a NW Flow favored system. Likely just going to be some big NW flow, likely breaching containment, ASSUMING things don't downtrend.
rburrel2
Member
ukmet is especially strong with the streamer stuff and it did a good job predicting similar activity with our “storm” from last February. Unfortunately, it’s going to be very warm at the surface on the Lee-side Monday afternoon though. But maybe rates will overcome!
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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GFS incoming
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Maybe the GFS will hold us over till the 00z cycle gets here
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GFS Run
Coastal boys rejoice
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Looks like some heavier rates in there, what do you think Grit?
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LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2017-2023 Supporter
From what I'm seeing with trends I think the TN/NC Apps look great at this point. Slow moving rotating bands of snow possible. If no system I think there will be NW Flow at least
At least I flash freeze into the mid 20’s after I get rained on. Gotta crawl before you can walk 
NBAcentel
Member
Higher QPF gives you your cold in this type of setup, 
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Thanks for clarifying Fro, man that’s a good look, I hope it holds.
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Looks good to me. Suspect 2m temps will not make it but looks like snow
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
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2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Here is the WeatherBell map while I'm still on my work login
Ha, I was kind of hoping we would shoot a weak gulf low into the Atlantic and get it out of the way, then bring in the upper wave, but a stronger version of it, and have it do its thing. That type of setup would be colder, but with lighter precip. GFS wants to go heavier rain to snow with the trailing wave not diving far enough south. Blue colors on the model now, but don't know if that ends well come game time (but good for those to the N and NW). We'll see. At least we're not staring at ++AO and mega SE ridges.
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Nothing locking that high in place. Sort of a “moving in tandem” setup. Thread the needle
Money shot for a seasonal avg type of event…. Also a favorable vort track for Lee side enhancement which models almost always fail to pickup on until it’s basically unfolding.
End of the UKMet run had a clipper coming in next Thursday with another in the pipeline there over E Nebraska
C-Money
Member
GFS looks good, but I'm skeptical about the GFS showing something and the Euro following more than the other way around.
NBAcentel
Member
Huge increase on QPF with the 18z GEFS 
NBAcentel
Member
Starting to get some miller A characteristics here, especially with the SW Piedmont/upstate screw zone 
broken025
Member
The Jimmy special?
NBAcentel
Member
GEFS up close 
i've been down on this system from the start, but jackpot new bern with a 9 inch lollipop has my attention
The QPF shift is everything, I was crossing my fingers that the Low would move northward!
Choose your fighter.
Southern Track
Member
I think I can speak for the most of us. If you hadn’t seen the Euro most would still be ecstatic with the GFS.
EFisherWX
Member
Correct - I applied and was granted access to the dataset on both BigQuery and Earth Engine (EE is by far superior for processing, IMO). I also agree that the odds of us being able to make the data public as a company are low.
That said, Google will have a hard time finding and tracing a random, unlisted GitHub site w/ an assortment of maps back to my API key. That’s likely the move regardless of their terms of use. They have bigger fish to fry.
NCHighCountryWX
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That GFS run looked good for some of us who missed out on today's fun and games. I'd love to see a classic Miller A develop off of the coast with a cold air mass in place. Let's hope this run isn't a one off and the beginning of a trend that the other models will catch up to. I'd be happy to see a couple of inches of snow next week to get me more in the Christmas spirit.
Anyone have the 2010 Boxing Day storm maps? This one reminds me of it somewhat with upper level energy diving down and hitting the baroclinic zone off the coast, igniting lift and more cold air injected. Obviously, not expecting that much this time since this one does not look as dynamic or as cold.