LittleMountain
Member
Thought that building the snowpack up North was supposed to help us out? More of the same as last year. Too little precip. Cold air always retreating. Rinse and repeat.
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
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PvilleWeather
Member
Longtime member here, but I rarely post. I’m as impatient as the next person, but we must realize it’s only December 4th. Patience is key! I see great signs moving forward. I’ve lived many years in the south when the dreaded SE ridge was still dominating our weather this time of year. That hasn’t been the case recently. Let’s get settled in and ready for what this winter can bring us! Best of luck to everyone!!
FoothillsWX
Member
We just suck at anything other than historic flooding in the foothills of NC lol
I don't put much faith in that either. A week of zonal flow that snowpack along I70 and I80 is usually gone. That only helps when we get a storm immediately after a fresh snowpack up there. And it's still not helping in this particular case likely because its not enough +PNA. But too much PNA would squash it. This is exactly why I'm not a fan of La Nina like a lot on here. Sure, they're not always a torch and we can get cold. But an active southern stream is missing and diving northern stream energy fails way more often.
Bigedd09
Member
Mid west really having an epic winter this winter. NAM gives them another solid snow storm Sunday into Monday. Too warm here
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SnowNiner
Member
Still waiting to get rid of the blue blob in western canada. It mutes the cold and shortwave dig IMO. Phase 8 keeping us cool but ain't delivering the good so far on the models. ::taps on foot looking at watch::
6z GFS still lovin a stretched SPV mid month
It looks like the stretching / reflective event is in the Dec 10-15 timeframe. JC says the typical progression that follows over a 2-week period is cold in E Asia first, then in Canada, then in the U.S. East of the Rockies. So, that would mean cold somewhere E of the Rockies in the lead up / just past Christmas.
Seems fair though the biggest issue IMO that we continue to have going forward is with respect to getting more momentum injected into the Pac Jet. Need the jet to extend more to the east to get the developing ridge in the Bering Sea to move east. There is a decent looking high pressure showing on the modeling that drops across the Tibetan Plateau and into E China here on Dec 13. Those types are nice as it leads to the Pac Jet extending some and dropping equatorward / south some. Hopefully, we see a bit more of these as we continue thru Dec as these are lacking here in early Dec.
MJO - there are seemingly differing opinions on the MJO progression. I think the best way to describe it is that we have a slow moving MJO wave with embedded fast moving kelvin waves that exert their own influence at times.
As of today, we have a Phase 8 type look on the VP maps:
For Dec 10-15, we have a Phase 5 type look:
But then, the "slow moving MJO wave kind of recovers", and the Maritime Continent dries out and back into a Phase 7 moving to Phase 8 type look here Dec 19-24:
The best MJO comparison to this year IMO is 95-96. That winter had a slow moving MJO thru 7-8-1-2-3 from Dec thru Jan with VP interruptions along the way. You can plug 95-96 in these charts at 5-day intervals and see the VP interruptions at this link - https://ds.data.jma.go.jp/tcc/tcc/products/clisys/anim/anim_tp.html
95-96 had some light events in early Dec, then a couple events in the first half of Jan (one big one of course). Not calling for a big one, but I think if we can stay patient, there are reasons to believe we can see a colder profile and wintry chances later in Dec and into Jan. Could I be wrong?......Yes.
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Always an interesting topic as I'll always have a soft spot for El Ninos. Problem is, outside of 02-03 and 09-10, Ninos haven't been any good post the 1980's. But I look back to last January, and though not a Nino type southern stream, the storm that hit New Orleans and east is a way to do it. Get the big cold air in here, then see if a weak wave with deep gulf overrunning can traverse the south (just a more north version for us)
I am not going to pretend I understood everything I just read with this but when I read it & look at long range guidance with it being void of anything exciting, it makes perfect sense.
AJ1013
Member
December averaging 82/71 here so far 
Yeah I don't think it takes 2 weeks.
You’re welcome. No, it doesn’t take 2 weeks. The cold that tends to be associated with phase 8 is concurrent with the actual days of phase 8 as per this image (that’s what these images are based on). And as the 10 day ensemble mean maps show, it’s going to be quite cold in the E US as a whole though the strongest cold anomalies in the current case are N of the SE:
They definitely haven't done as well lately. I know 98/99 was a super Nino. So was 2015/2016. And they aren't good at all. So have we really had any warm neutral to moderate El Ninos since the late 90s that were duds? Seems like we had a dud around 19/20 or so? But other than that maybe its a lack of warm natural to moderate Ninos in the timeframe?
when the la nada?
Um, we entered phase eight yesterday, lol. The extended ensembles have been warm-biased this fall more than usual over and over again.
How many recent winters have we been waiting on the expansion of North American snow cover in January, with Canadian temps much above normal? Patience, folks.
Yeah 97-98 was the other Super.
18-19, 14-15, 06-07, 04-05: all weak ninos that were meh for the most part. Dec '18 did have the big storm in NW sections
But yeah, the mod ninos tend to be the best of them
iGRXY
Member
It's December 4th people, give it time. Stop living and dying by every model and ensemble run.
Most realize this, some not! I get the impatience with the lack of snow since 2013-14. I think since 2020 the cold has disappeared after late December which makes people forget!
Bigedd09
Member
I think a lot of people also realize in a La Nina you have to score in December. 2nd half of winter is normally a torch. Now we are punting december
Brent
Member
Seriously I don't even remember accumulation here this early... We've had 2 events in 3 days
Oh and I could have told people months ago we'd have warm days in the winter. It's the south. You want wall to wall winter? Move north. Never has happened here and never will
Thought it was going La Nada at the beginning of the year? We are below average with a pattern that seems decent. ( nothing is promised). Patience is a virtue that not all have!
Just like yesterday, the GEFS and EPS disagree on how long the MJO will stay in phase 8:
GEFS: only 6 days though it returns for rd 2 on 12/18:
But the EPS, which recently has been much steadier and has been verifying better than GEFS since phase 7, once again is going with a very long phase 8 (16+ days, longest in 50 years): you can’t place an MJO better than this in Dec for E US cold lovers (and it looks to be cold the next 10 days per models though one must remember that there are always other factors to consider due to the complexity of the atmosphere):
GEFS: only 6 days though it returns for rd 2 on 12/18:
But the EPS, which recently has been much steadier and has been verifying better than GEFS since phase 7, once again is going with a very long phase 8 (16+ days, longest in 50 years): you can’t place an MJO better than this in Dec for E US cold lovers (and it looks to be cold the next 10 days per models though one must remember that there are always other factors to consider due to the complexity of the atmosphere):
We’re decades into the future and while models are all we have, they suck. Short, mid and long term. I’m not sure what’s changed but weather forecasting is up there with palm reading, fortune cookies and horoscopes!
They’re far from perfect but they’re much better than the things you listed, which imho have zero predictive value.
NBAcentel
Member
Highly skilled computies 
I get that, I guess I was just sarcastically saying that people live and die by them when everything is fluid and changing!
rburrel2
Member
The “warm up” only looks to last a few days in mid-December. In what’s been otherwise a much below normal month. I don’t see why people are consternating so much. The week on each side of Christmas looks about as good as you can hope for right now with long range indicators.
We’ve also already had two threats in December and one of them is going to pan out for northern nc/va.
We’ve also already had two threats in December and one of them is going to pan out for northern nc/va.
Whatever the ICON was about to do at the end of the run looked good.
BAM says yes
That looks amazingly consistent with phase 8 . Not that anything will materialize but we can hope.
overall trend on weathernext 2 for monday isn't bad, but its not what the gfs/cmc had a few days ago. good trends for mountain snow, at least. if it keeps backing up/beefing up precip you could work toward some central/eastern nc flizzard fun
Yeah they were calling from modoki Nino and that did not help us out really at all, despite all the positive prognostication
broken025
Member
There’s always next winter boys.
Everything else aside, I understand we’re currently in a weak Nino with all expectations based off of modeling that we would go into a neutral period. We, the SE seem to have better winters during neutral periods. When do we see that if at all?
I'd take either one to be honest. Even if it does enter phase 7 again before back into 8. I don't want it anywhere near the maritime continent during peak climo. Although I think I remember seeing the Jan 2011 storm was phase 4 or 5. And while Dec isn't good for phase 7 Jan is. At least based on Webbers chart more winterstorms have occurred in Jan during phase 7 than any other phase. I think. I'll have to try to dig the image out if I still have it
We are in Weak La Niña now. Probably in an El Niño of some form next winter
I meant Nina, my apologies for the misunderstanding!
Cad Wedge NC
Member
You've got to be kidding me..... I have waited all my 61 years for something like that to happen. Surely we can score with that.
Who in the heck has punted December?? It 12/4 for heavens sake
It's nice knowing that there is someone the same age as I am here. I turned 61 back in November.