Shaggy
Member
Glad everyone else gets to track a light winter event we are just happy to see some dang rain!!
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
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NCSNOW
Member
This might get interesting here in a few more frames
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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NCSNOW
Member
swing and a miss. To much separation, pos tilt
Token sprinkle/ flake
Token sprinkle/ flake
Bigedd09
Member
That is wild how it still finds a way to cold rain with a low in the gulf. Where's the cold air!
NCSNOW
Member
"Delayed but not denied"
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Have to phase the jet streams to get wonderful things to happen...Bigedd09
Member
Yeah for sure. Like you said. We can work with it for now. Still a week out
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NCSNOW
Member
The Ukmet and ICOn are plenty cold enough for Mon/Tues. Way much moreso than euro/even gfs. The Ukmet really comes close to doing a lot of coastal plain folks some favors.
Where's my 50/50 and NAO block? Going to be chasing ghosts till we start to see that.
May get a quick-hitter or minor to moderate event though. We just have to shoehorn it in.
May get a quick-hitter or minor to moderate event though. We just have to shoehorn it in.
Was just thinking this exact thing. Monday would look much more promising if we could get that blocking in place. Until then we really don't have too much to work with.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
12z Euro mid month SPV. Larger vortice on our side.
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Too much positive tilt not allowing cold air to get pulled in
You’ve got your strong -NAO. Today’s GEFS NAO forecast has a sub-1 NAO 12/5-8:
Today’s GEFS AO forecast dips to -2.3 12/7 with sub -1 12/5-9:
The MJO is currently projected to be in phase 8 12/3-15.
These three are all great! But what’s missing?The even more important +PNA:
It’s, of course, not that you can’t have a big snow without it. But it’s been the single most prevalent index for major snowstorms in the SE (yes, significantly more prevalent than -NAO). Consider these stats that I compiled:
-Average PNA for the 21 6”+ RDU snowstorms: +0.4
-Average NAO for the 21 6”+ RDU snowstorms: +0.0
+PNA (+0.25+): 11 storms (52%)
Neutral PNA (-0.25 to +0.25): 7 storms (33%)
-PNA (-0.25-): 3 storms (14%)
ghost1
Member
About 10 days ago, there was a lot of chatter about a big dump of frigid arctic air into the southern US by mid December. So is that off the table now?
There may have been chatter, but I haven’t seen it on model guidance.
Twister
Member
Upstate can get ready for another day just like today COLD RAIN
The above is for all ENSO. What about for just -ENSO regarding 6”+ RDU snowstorms?
-5 (56%) +PNA, 3 (33%) neutral PNA, 1 (5%) -PNA
-4 (44%) +NAO, 1 (11%) neutral NAO, 4 (44%) -NAO
So: whereas 56% had a +PNA vs only 5% with a -PNA, 44% had a -NAO vs 44% with a +NAO
So, for just -ENSO, whereas there were 5 times as many 6”+ snowstorms with a +PNA vs a -PNA, -NAO vs +NAO has been totally balanced.
Is this good?
Scrolling through MSLP, the flow is #Fast
Need some entrenched high pressure if anyone south of VA and and WNC want winter weather. Looks like a typical low pressure dominant fall rainy pattern at the moment.
No, what an idiot. Just nuke my Christmas vacation in Gatlinburg with a ridge the size of half the planet. Unreal.
Seattle trip?
Are we thinking this is just a fake out? Or is this actually possible during a phase 8 MJO?
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
Right there with you lol
Don’t worry. It’s a short drive up hwy441 to Newfound Gap where it always snows
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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2024 Supporter
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Look at how that block over greenland moves further this way squashing our trough southward!!!
No MJO phase, just like any other index, is anywhere near that cut and dry. The atmosphere is way too complex. But, they are as good as just about any index for tendencies. Thus, I love using the MJO.
The good news is, I find if I take day 12 of the GFS and switch to the inverse, it can be pretty accurate!
Met1985
Member
The models are having a hard time 3 plus days out let alone that far out. This is a complex pattern we have now with a lot of moving parts.
Met1985
Member
As several know December has a lot going on. We may have a long duration in phase 8 of the MJO. We have the EPO firing up. We also may have another significant warming event of the PV mid month. Blocking coming and going. As we've seen in November sometimes the models don't catch onto anything unless they are under 7 days out. Crazy times ahead.
To add to my other post, the temps are quite cold in much of the E US 12/3-12, which is very consistent with phase 8 tendencies:
If Mother Nature allowed weanies to draw up an MJO prog, it would look exactly like that.
Can’t believe we are actually doing the thing with the MJO..
Now we sit back & wait.
Now we sit back & wait.
iwantsouthernsnow123
Member
I can already tell how this system on the 6th will go.. Probably going to manage to somehow get snow all the way in the upstate, then sit right at the GA SC Border skipping out NE GA.
(Sorta a joke but kinda true with how things go around here.)
(Sorta a joke but kinda true with how things go around here.)
SnowNiner
Member
Hopefully the EPS is wrong with its depiction of the jet so far retracted in phase 8. It looks terrible phase 8 or no. Hoping the power of mjo 8 bends the models to its will soon.
