Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Here we go…
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Pattern December Doldrums 2025 🎄 ❄️
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Beat me to it!
NBAcentel
Member
3 run run trend of the ICOn modeL 
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
A terrible CAD model is going for the CAD
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
I don’t understand how this thing could cut So far northward…
Almost the same footprint as the Tuesday system
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
If the players keep playing the way they are, it won’t.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Back to back GFS runs…
CAD just don’t CAD like it used to for my area. Looks solid for NC though.
The perfectly horizontal cutoff line is amazing.
NCSNOW
Member
Canadian a massive ice storm wnc up into VA , where GFS, says we all snow
NBAcentel
Member
looks like the GEFS is coming in colder, would like to see some ens support, it’s getting towards the ens wheelhouse now
NCSNOW
Member
0z icon map for reference. Kinda in between gfs and canadian for p types. Early,just looking for consensus. Figure details out latter
trackersacker
Member
NCSNOW
Member
0z UKmet like 0z canadian. Keeps ice in western va, nw nc. Cold rain for rest of us. .
Consensus is a storm is coming. Unanimous. Will it be cold rain, ice, or snow is only question.
Definitely Gonna be frozen qpf mtns and immediate escarpment. Rest of us , its a wait an see.
Ops arent good with temps on cads 5 days out. Seeing Icon do what it did, tells me gfs aint 100% out to lunch . Icon is highest reso model around. Always warmer than others. So we Cant laugh the gfs out of the bldng, just yet.
I have as low faith in anything gfs says as you can have. So im not on board with it till i see other models get on board. Never trust that model.
Consensus is a storm is coming. Unanimous. Will it be cold rain, ice, or snow is only question.
Definitely Gonna be frozen qpf mtns and immediate escarpment. Rest of us , its a wait an see.
Ops arent good with temps on cads 5 days out. Seeing Icon do what it did, tells me gfs aint 100% out to lunch . Icon is highest reso model around. Always warmer than others. So we Cant laugh the gfs out of the bldng, just yet.
I have as low faith in anything gfs says as you can have. So im not on board with it till i see other models get on board. Never trust that model.
NCSNOW
Member
0z Euro says GFS was off its rocker. Cold rain mostly. Euro still says next Tues, wed best shot at seeing a flake fly east of apps
NCSNOW
Member
6z GFS and 6Z Icon still have ICe, mix east of apps in NC and VA. .boils down to LP track, cold being in place upon arrival. Usual caveats
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
6Z Euro colder
11/30 EPS: steady as can be (4th day in a row very similar) phase 8 12/3-14+, which would be the longest phase 8 in 50 years for any winter month!
To show how consistent it has been, the EPS had this on 11/27 run, phase 8 12/3-11+:
To show how consistent it has been, the EPS had this on 11/27 run, phase 8 12/3-11+:
Met1985
Member
Long time no see old friends. The pattern is definitely shaping up for possible glory this December. The MJO, the PV, the EPO. A lot of positives to take place next month. Will be fun watching it all unfold.
06z Euro, looks pretty fun down the road... Of course, we know it will change 100 times before then. lol
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
CFS AO forecast
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CNCsnwfan1210
Member
CFS AO forecast
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GEFS NAO forecast
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The GEFS with zero response to MJO progression. Instead just nukes the entire Southern section of the lower 48 with a broad ridge into mid month.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
CAD signal showing up on a few members of the CMC ensemble. Question remains how much cold air will be able to funnel southward. Hopefully with a snowpack to the north and a good positioned HP (preferably over the PA/NY border), the trends will be on our side.
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Meh. GEFS ensembles are just more goofuses. And, I'm being fair by not going beyond an ensembles useful range of 10 days.
How it's going, top image: How it started, bottom image:
Met1985
Member
Yeah the gfs and it's ensembles haven't performed well at all. As most have noted we were supposed to be in an endless torch with no light at the end of the tunnel.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
Looks like the 12z icon trended a tad colder from the 06z
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Brent
Member
Haha I'm still seeing people hype warmth here and there's nothing above maybe 60 showing up
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah, it looks average to slightly below average for December for the opening 10 days on high temps at least. Lots of cold rain to catch up on the dry spell many have been in too.
This has been the theme now for several months.
In fairness the EPS has really struggled as well until we get into the medium range. If you remember 2 weeks ago, the EPS was showing full on torch for the coming week
12z GFS continues to show a wintery event for this Friday.
12z GFS at hour 126:
ICON looked icy, too. Time to start the first storm thread of the year for the N. Carolina and Virginia crew, don't y'all think?