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Misc General Banter Thread

I thought it was mid December at least for yall at least anyway. To me nothing has changed. The cold was always gonna start here before it goes east (which we're still waiting despite all the model noise) lol and again it's not even winter yet

We got the whole winter ahead of us. Just relax lol
 
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Rain Cold said:
If the MJO heads into phase 8, with all the cold projected to be lurking to the north, I'd be surprised if we don't get cold. The models will come around to it at some point. If the MJO falls flat, then ok, we torch.
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I think that is the concern. All we can do is trust the MJO IF it stays the course to the glory 8.
 
Rain Cold said:
If the MJO heads into phase 8, with all the cold projected to be lurking to the north, I'd be surprised if we don't get cold. The models will come around to it at some point. If the MJO falls flat, then ok, we torch.
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If it U turns in 7 and heads backwards, or dies before it hits 8, we crash out.
 
Stevo24 said:
Lot of folks already lined up on the ledge. Just a light push please.
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Too early to ledge. We have reason and evidence that we're heading in generally the right direction.....it's just likely to be a longer wait than expected last week. Lots of time, but first half of December does look warm.

Weeklies mean nothing to me warm or cold. They'll change once atmospheric conditions are better understood. Hope in pacific teleconnections as that's the basis I think for our overall weather IMO.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
I think it’s time to toss December for most folks. Let’s hope January is better.
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james franco wtf GIF
 
CJ said he was going to post his Winter forecast Wednesday. Then pushed it back to today. Still nothing. I think this year has everyone tangled up.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Even a few weeks ago, I definitely underestimated just how quickly this winter would dip into the ‘ol well of -EPO/+TNH patterns we’ve seen so frequently the last 10-15 years.

This pattern is honestly only going to get stronger and more frequent later in winter when the polar vortex intensifies (makes wave reflection more effective) & the warm pool starts zonally advecting east in response to our current MJO-driven westerly wind burst

View attachment 177058

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Just go ahead and say it. We are looking at the exact same crap we are looking at every year lol.
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
I do think we'll get some temporary cold shots but it seems like the theme for this winter will be Extended Warmth followed by brief cold and then another warmup. That doesn't mean it won't snow though. Timing is everything !
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That’s winter in the SE every year. Welcome
 
Even out here even if all this hype about December pans out we're gonna have warm days this winter. Its part of where we live lol this is what social media complains about thinking it stays cold. It never has and never will

I mean heck we were 76 degrees two days before our biggest snowstorm ever in 2011... It's not even really a bad thing if you want snow here 😜
 
Drizzle Snizzle said:
I do think we'll get some temporary cold shots but it seems like the theme for this winter will be Extended Warmth followed by brief cold and then another warmup. That doesn't mean it won't snow though. Timing is everything !
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You got 8 in of snow last year if anybody's not due for snow, it is you especially because it's Southwest Georgia.
 
jackendrickwx said:
pattern chasing sucks
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I don't even know what we are chasing at this point. It's everywhere outside 7 days. And before someone says "what do you expect" or "It's always everywhere past 7-10 days"

Nah, whatever we are trying to figure out right now for early December is built different. I don't know what in the world is going on past the cold front next week.
 
Mitch West said:
I don't even know what we are chasing at this point. It's everywhere outside 7 days. And before someone says "what do you expect" or "It's always everywhere past 7-10 days"

Nah, whatever we are trying to figure out right now for early December is built different. I don't know what in the world is going on past the cold front next week.
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yeah i am mostly team (shrug) beyond like monday-ish, but personally expecting warm for most next week. i think our main question is can cold find a way to bleed east before the first weekend in dec. analogs and most ens runs are pretty locked onto quality time with SER. latest cpc d8-14 analogs fed into Dec temp anomalies:

1763922130804.png

lots of mid-late 70s, early 90s, late 00s showing on these over the past few days. i think it is a bit overkill on warmth but those years were generally not kind for december snow. in theory captain mjo should be able to direct a more interesting mid-late dec.
 
jackendrickwx said:
yeah i am mostly team (shrug) beyond like monday-ish, but personally expecting warm for most next week. i think our main question is can cold find a way to bleed east before the first weekend in dec. analogs and most ens runs are pretty locked onto quality time with SER. latest cpc d8-14 analogs fed into Dec temp anomalies:

View attachment 177102

lots of mid-late 70s, early 90s, late 00s showing on these over the past few days. i think it is a bit overkill on warmth but those years were generally not kind for december snow. in theory captain mjo should be able to direct a more interesting mid-late dec.
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Can’t wait for my trip to the mountains the 11-14th of next month to be in 60s. Swell stuff…
 
Ok, here’s the deal. Here in Mills River right now and it’s 63/64, which is 5-7 above average would would render that taboo red on the map, but like, it’s definitely jacket weather in shade, with cool breeze and doesn’t feel like summer at all. I want it to be as cold as possible always, but this still feels like late Fall/early Winter, even if it is 5 degrees above what we in theory *could* have. It’s enough to play cool temps and in the southeast, that’s not as bad as it could be!
 
Rant: So...this SSW seems like it's going to be "reflective", thus only disturb the strat vortex temporarily. Therefore it will quickly restrengthen and blocking will likely not be enhanced for long. I can add that to the "strat does not couple with the troposphere", and "wave pattern on the other side of the world" to the reasons why SSW's rarely have any cold benefit for the E/SE. It remains the biggest myth for SE snow lovers that I can think of.
 
SnowNiner said:
Rant: So...this SSW seems like it's going to be "reflective", thus only disturb the strat vortex temporarily. Therefore it will quickly restrengthen and blocking will likely not be enhanced for long. I can add that to the "strat does not couple with the troposphere", and "wave pattern on the other side of the world" to the reasons why SSW's rarely have any cold benefit for the E/SE. It remains the biggest myth for SE snow lovers that I can think of.
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Yeah the +TNH trend has really screwed us here because it also favors a +NAM/AO. That makes it tougher to couple in the long-run (even if it’s coupled initially for a brief period) unless we can reverse that and bring the -NAO back.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Yeah the +TNH trend has really screwed us here because it also favors a +NAM/AO. That makes it tougher to couple in the long-run (even if it’s coupled initially for a brief period) unless we can reverse that and bring the -NAO back.
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It seems like it's always some element that makes them meaningless to us. Other parts of the world, perhaps Europe, huge deal. For us, nada. Ironically last year we had a tight and would up strat, and the trop was great and we had a great January!
 
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