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Tropical 94L - PTC to be issued later today

things tracks over sav and into southern ga absolutely hammering rain\

worst case scenario irt rainfall
 
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Good Neptune! Highest is 25.5 inches per the Euro
 
I feel like EVERY time we have a tropical system threatening the east coast, things trend north and east as the event draws closer. Of course, the steering for this particular system has many variables.
 
mx3gsr92 said:
I feel like EVERY time we have a tropical system threatening the east coast, things trend north and east as the event draws closer. Of course, the steering for this particular system has many variables.
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Not this time. If anything it will be more west.
 
LOL, I mean. Instead of posting Florence totals and saying to shift them towards SC, I should have just waited for the Euro QPF output.🤷‍♂️
 
So what's everyone's thoughts on future LLC? Western part of the disturbance or more towards Hispaniola. Just looking at it now it would seem more towards Hispaniola based on loose spin over the DR
 
Shaggy said:
So what's everyone's thoughts on future LLC? Western part of the disturbance or more towards Hispaniola. Just looking at it now it would seem more towards Hispaniola based on loose spin over the DR
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I bet its north where it just shot out the ofb/arc clouds but really at this point it could be anywhere
 
weather nerd said:
florence from 2018 might be close, cant remember if it made landfall in sc or not though
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As far as the conditions most of us in Central North Carolina might see, Florence might be a good comparison. 94L may become a slow moving Category 1 hurricane like Florence wherever it comes ashore dumping buckets of rain along its path. Florence broke many rainfall records for NC coastal communities with around 35 inches being recorded in Elizabeth City and 25 in Wilmington. In the KRDU area, rainfall totals ranged anywhere from six to eight inches around Raleigh and up to twelve inches in some locations south of Raleigh.
 
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GeorgiaGirl said:
I see they're forecasting the potential stall here, which man oh man, it'd be potentially nightmare-ish rain wise.
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East of I-77and south of I-20 for sure. Little to none probably for the northwest half of GA and over upstate SC. MYR, CHS, ILM, and RDU would probably see 15+ out of it.
 
JHS said:
East of I-77and south of I-20 for sure. Little to none probably for the northwest half of GA and over upstate SC. MYR, CHS, ILM, and RDU would probably see 15+ out of it.
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Southwest Half of Georgia won't get much either unless something changes. Most of the rain in Georgia appears to be East of I-75. I'm expecting a nice, dry week next week with a good amount of sunshine.
 
I'm starting to think my initial position of it never making landfall may win the day. Once we start seeing widespread stalling on modeling, it's hard to go back. I've seen that over and over. Next little bit of time is going to be critical. It has to start getting its act together soon or it ain't getting in.

Edit: Yep

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Rain Cold said:
I'm starting to think my initial position of it never making landfall may win the day. Once we start seeing widespread stalling on modeling, it's hard to go back. I've seen that over and over. Next little bit of time is going to be critical. It has to start getting its act together soon or it ain't getting in.

Edit: Yep

View attachment 175192
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Ray is in the “take a deep breath” camp. Which is good to see IMG_5224.jpeg
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm starting to think my initial position of it never making landfall may win the day. Once we start seeing widespread stalling on modeling, it's hard to go back. I've seen that over and over. Next little bit of time is going to be critical. It has to start getting its act together soon or it ain't getting in.

Edit: Yep

View attachment 175192
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Yeah it getting buried near Cuba right now may end up being the difference. If the current center remains dominant it may be too slow and get yanked by Humberto. Very fine line
 
JHS said:
East of I-77and south of I-20 for sure. Little to none probably for the northwest half of GA and over upstate SC. MYR, CHS, ILM, and RDU would probably see 15+ out of it.
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There is literally nothing that supports this if we get a landfalling tropical system …
 
In spite of the changes, for now at hr 78, it looks like the ULL is going to win over Humberto interaction keeping it away from the coast.

Edit: or not. This would be the best option thankfully.
 
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