• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Tropical TS Erin

My only thing is its already at the Lesser Antilles northern latitude(the islands east of Puerto Rico) so clearly there has to be a prolonged southern motion here to change the overall narrative of OTS
 
Shaggy said:
Odd that the stronger the system the more likely to take the western trackView attachment 174134
Click to expand...

Models probably picking up the outflow pumping the ridge to the north with a stronger storm. While it would get further west initially, it would also probably feel the weakness quicker when it does break down.

IMO, the only thing to watch is if the ringing builds over the top or not. The bouncing back and forth of the storm doesn't mean much until this escape route closes..


123da950-0665-416b-b165-16264f80d2ea.gif
 
The good news in the short term for the US is that Erin climbed slightly from 17.4N to 17.6N since the previous advisory (275 degree heading) vs a prog to stay at 17.4N or at 270 degrees. Maybe this is a sign that the latitude will be mainly maintained instead of losing much. We’ll see.
 
GaWx said:
The good news in the short term for the US is that Erin climbed slightly from 17.4N to 17.6N since the previous advisory (275 degree heading) vs a prog to stay at 17.4N or at 270 degrees. Maybe this is a sign that the latitude will be mainly maintained instead of losing much. We’ll see.
Click to expand...
@lexxnchloe you really want to land falling hurricane don't you?
 
OTOH:
0Z 8/12 UKMET: similar to 12Z with it recurving at 66.5W and threatening Bermuda:

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.8N 31.2W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.08.2025 0 17.8N 31.2W 1010 29
1200UTC 12.08.2025 12 17.4N 35.3W 1008 31
0000UTC 13.08.2025 24 17.2N 39.3W 1008 30
1200UTC 13.08.2025 36 17.0N 42.6W 1007 29
0000UTC 14.08.2025 48 17.3N 45.3W 1008 29
1200UTC 14.08.2025 60 18.3N 49.0W 1008 29
0000UTC 15.08.2025 72 19.2N 52.1W 1008 28
1200UTC 15.08.2025 84 20.3N 55.5W 1008 33
0000UTC 16.08.2025 96 21.0N 58.8W 1007 34
1200UTC 16.08.2025 108 21.8N 61.0W 1004 43
0000UTC 17.08.2025 120 22.4N 63.8W 1002 43
1200UTC 17.08.2025 132 24.2N 65.6W 1000 45
0000UTC 18.08.2025 144 26.6N 66.5W 998 42
1200UTC 18.08.2025 156 28.6N 66.5W 995 43
0000UTC 19.08.2025 168 30.8N 65.6W 992 47
 
Still mostly OTS Bermuda if anything the turn is sharper

Of note it appears the most extreme solution of a high end 4+ on the EPS winds up hitting Florida. How interesting image0-9.jpg
 
Last edited:
GaWx said:
The good news in the short term for the US is that Erin climbed slightly from 17.4N to 17.6N since the previous advisory (275 degree heading) vs a prog to stay at 17.4N or at 270 degrees. Maybe this is a sign that the latitude will be mainly maintained instead of losing much. We’ll see.
Click to expand...

- Followup to above: Per the 5AM advisory, Erin dropped back down slightly to 17.4N with a 265 degree heading. The new track has a low point of 17.0N tomorrow instead of 17.1N. The 17.0N will be a key latitudinal benchmark to compare to tomorrow.

- The 6Z Icon at 120 is slightly W of that ominous looking for Conus 0Z run at 126.

-The 6Z GFS is similar to the 0Z GFS and again goes just NW of Bermuda with a hard hit there.

-The 6Z Euro 144 is barely SE of the 0Z Euro 150. The 0Z had it recurve ~250
miles SE of NC.
 
erin looks pretty terrible this morning

it's going over an area with relatively cool SSTs and the trades are moving quickly so this isn't shocking. but the NHC may need to curb their enthusiasm on the intensity forecasts

in the meantime, as long as this is a naked swirl, southward adjustments to the near term forecast are possible. shallower steering currents are more southerly as per usual. a weaker storm means it isn't as influenced by deeper steering currents

1755004151677.png

i'm not opining on the long term forecast as i don't have anything unique to say. i will continue to be informed by the euro ensembles and euro ensembles only
 
The satellite images show that Erin is not looking well organized at all this morning. The convection has been separated from the center by the strong trade winds and conditions don't appear conducive for intensification in the near term. The intensity forecasts may have to be adjusted in future updates if this trend continues.
 
weather bubba said:
The satellite images show that Erin is not looking well organized at all this morning. The convection has been separated from the center by the strong trade winds and conditions don't appear conducive for intensification in the near term. The intensity forecasts may have to be adjusted in future updates if this trend continues.
Click to expand...

True and I agree but that probably favors a higher chance of impacts in the longer term though

At least in the Caribbean islands. There's still a clear recurve as long as it doesn't slow down
 
weather bubba said:
The satellite images show that Erin is not looking well organized at all this morning. The convection has been separated from the center by the strong trade winds and conditions don't appear conducive for intensification in the near term. The intensity forecasts may have to be adjusted in future updates if this trend continues.
Click to expand...
Not to mention the “cooler” SST’s and the dry air it’s dealing with!
 
jeremyt said:
Not to mention the “cooler” SST’s and the dry air it’s dealing with!
Click to expand...
I think those are the two main issues, moreso than shear, though there is some shear. But things will improve later in the week into the weekend. The circulation is well-defined.
 
jrips27 said:
New 11AM. First time that PR is in the cone
View attachment 174167
Click to expand...

It dropped from 17.4N to 17.2N. Also, the new track dips down to 16.5N tomorrow vs the prior advisory’s 17.0N.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 12/1500Z 17.2N 36.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 13/0000Z 16.8N 39.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 13/1200Z 16.5N 42.3W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 14/0000Z 16.6N 45.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
48H 14/1200Z 17.1N 48.3W 55 KT 65 MPH
60H 15/0000Z 17.8N 51.3W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 15/1200Z 18.5N 54.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
96H 16/1200Z 19.8N 60.3W 90 KT 105 MPH
120H 17/1200Z 21.4N 65.0W 100 KT 115 MPH
 
12Z UKMET: dips down to 16.4N vs 17.0N on 0Z; recurves at 68.7W vs 66.5W on 0Z; so still a safe recurve for Conus:

TROPICAL STORM ERIN ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 35.4W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL052025

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 12.08.2025 0 17.3N 35.4W 1008 31
0000UTC 13.08.2025 12 16.7N 39.3W 1008 29
1200UTC 13.08.2025 24 16.4N 42.2W 1008 27
0000UTC 14.08.2025 36 16.7N 45.0W 1007 29
1200UTC 14.08.2025 48 17.6N 48.5W 1008 31
0000UTC 15.08.2025 60 18.6N 51.8W 1008 31
1200UTC 15.08.2025 72 19.8N 55.4W 1006 31
0000UTC 16.08.2025 84 20.7N 58.6W 1005 32
1200UTC 16.08.2025 96 21.6N 61.6W 1001 37
0000UTC 17.08.2025 108 22.3N 64.2W 998 44
1200UTC 17.08.2025 120 23.3N 66.3W 998 48
0000UTC 18.08.2025 132 24.8N 67.7W 996 42
1200UTC 18.08.2025 144 26.9N 68.6W 992 52
0000UTC 19.08.2025 156 28.8N 68.7W 988 48
1200UTC 19.08.2025 168 30.7N 68.0W 980 58
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top