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Tropical TS Chantal 2025

Chantal will continue the trend this year so far of weak, disorganized storms without much punch developing in the Eastern basin. While storms like this don't have the glamor, excitement and attention that well developed hurricanes get they are beneficial rain producers for areas that need rain and they don't bring the devastation and suffering to areas that are affected by these systems.
 
...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA...
11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 05
Location: 31.1°N 78.7°W
Moving: N at 1 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Max sustained: 40 mph
 
Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

Satellite images suggest that Chantal has been organizing and
gaining strength. The storm is still asymmetric though, with most
of the associated showers and thunderstorms located near and to the
east of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently
investigating the system and have found that the pressure has
dropped to 1007 mb. The plane has yet to sample the area of strong
thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The
initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now. The outer rainbands are
beginning to reach portions of South and North Carolina, and
conditions along the coast within the watch and warning areas are
expected to continue to deteriorate throughout the day.

Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the
north-northwest is expected to begin soon. The main steering
features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a
narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region. The flow
between these features should cause Chantal to move inland over
South Carolina Sunday morning. It should be noted that center
reformations are possible, which could cause some erratic motion.
After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected when the storm
moves on the western side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies
close to the previous one, and the latest HCCA and Google Deep Mind
solutions.

Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal
is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind
shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to
shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for
strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than
the previous one, and in line with the latest HMON, HAFS-A, and
HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, steady weakening is expected until
the system dissipates in 48 to 60 hours.

Chantal is expected to remain a lopsided system during the next day
or so. Therefore, the strongest winds are anticipated to occur to
the right of the landfall location.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 31.1N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND
36H 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
48H 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik
 
Peak winds at flight level 46 knots ~100 miles E of center:

151600 3126N 07712W 8423 01602 //// +144 //// 161046
 
snowc said:
Thanks everyone for saving my mind from eternal fear.
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There are some circumstances I’d understand. If this were in the gulf rapidly gaining strength heading north then I’d have some major concerns, however this system is disorganized, it’s not tightening much, and it’s moving or going to move rapidly which in turn limits flooding potential.
 
Avalanche said:
There are some circumstances I’d understand. If this were in the gulf rapidly gaining strength heading north then I’d have some major concerns, however this system is disorganized, it’s not tightening much, and it’s moving or going to move rapidly which in turn limits flooding potential.
Click to expand...
This is actually going to be a very beneficial system without the risk of major intensification

Seen a couple of gators that are already out and happy with all the rain
 
Shaggy said:
This is actually going to be a very beneficial system without the risk of major intensification

Seen a couple of gators that are already out and happy with all the rain
Click to expand...
Man I freaking love this weather. Watching storms develop, drop a quick .75, then leave is awesome
 
Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025
200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025

...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS...
...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA
THIS EVENING...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...31.6N 78.7W
ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES
 
SD said:
Really just enough shear and limited time over water to prevent the not so common home grown SE coast RI system
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Looks good given the mentioned challenges...no shear or even less shear for 24 hrs would have seen this make a run at a high end TS weak cane...the mlc is stout...
 
RAH discussion saying more precip further west that originally thought...

TS Chantal is expected to make landfall over the central or northern
coast of SC early Sun morning before tracking northward then NE,
reaching the E Sandhills Sun evening as a depression, then moving
roughly along the I-95 corridor through E NC through Sun night. By
this time, both the strong/deep Atlantic moisture flux and the
surface wind field are likely to have weakened from their current
state. However, in this tropical environment, PW is still expected
to be well above normal, 2.2-2.5" across the CWA, with a deep LCL-0C
layer aoa 4 km, favoring warm rain processes and supporting the risk
of heavy rainfall. Many of the recent CAM runs show the heavier rain
areas spreading west of the center over the Piedmont Sun, and in
particular our far S and SW sections (including some flashy streams
like the Rocky River) could see multiple inches of rain through Sun
night. There is still too much uncertainty in coverage and amounts
for a flood watch at this time, however one may be needed tonight or
Sun morning if these CAM trends hold. Regarding the surface winds
and severe threat, while the surface wind field will have spread out
and decreased, a few stronger gusts remain possible, esp in and near
convective cells with substantial vertical growth as higher winds
aloft mix groundward. Models do show decent (25-35 kt) low level
southeasterly jetting to the E and NE of the storm`s center, nosing
into our Coastal Plain and E Sandhills counties Sun into Sun
evening, and this resultant brief curvature to the hodographs could
support a weak spinup or two in our SE, esp if we can achieve any
CAPE between tropical rainbands. Expect likely to categorical pops
CWA-wide, which is a notable westward push from earlier forecasts.
Given the more expansive cloud cover and precip, have nudged highs
down a bit to 80-85. Lows around 70 to the mid 70s, with pops
trending down and shifting into mainly NE sections as the remnant
low center tracks through the E CWA overnight. -GIH
 
ragtop50 said:
RAH discussion saying more precip further west that originally thought...

TS Chantal is expected to make landfall over the central or northern
coast of SC early Sun morning before tracking northward then NE,
reaching the E Sandhills Sun evening as a depression, then moving
roughly along the I-95 corridor through E NC through Sun night. By
this time, both the strong/deep Atlantic moisture flux and the
surface wind field are likely to have weakened from their current
state. However, in this tropical environment, PW is still expected
to be well above normal, 2.2-2.5" across the CWA, with a deep LCL-0C
layer aoa 4 km, favoring warm rain processes and supporting the risk
of heavy rainfall. Many of the recent CAM runs show the heavier rain
areas spreading west of the center over the Piedmont Sun, and in
particular our far S and SW sections (including some flashy streams
like the Rocky River) could see multiple inches of rain through Sun
night. There is still too much uncertainty in coverage and amounts
for a flood watch at this time, however one may be needed tonight or
Sun morning if these CAM trends hold. Regarding the surface winds
and severe threat, while the surface wind field will have spread out
and decreased, a few stronger gusts remain possible, esp in and near
convective cells with substantial vertical growth as higher winds
aloft mix groundward. Models do show decent (25-35 kt) low level
southeasterly jetting to the E and NE of the storm`s center, nosing
into our Coastal Plain and E Sandhills counties Sun into Sun
evening, and this resultant brief curvature to the hodographs could
support a weak spinup or two in our SE, esp if we can achieve any
CAPE between tropical rainbands. Expect likely to categorical pops
CWA-wide, which is a notable westward push from earlier forecasts.
Given the more expansive cloud cover and precip, have nudged highs
down a bit to 80-85. Lows around 70 to the mid 70s, with pops
trending down and shifting into mainly NE sections as the remnant
low center tracks through the E CWA overnight. -GIH
Click to expand...
Seems the field of precip grows bigger the closer we get most of the time the last few years, as well as the strength 24 hours before landfall.
 
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