Oil prices are down 7% today.
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Misc Stock Market
- Thread starter ForsythSnow
- Start date
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I think you realistically are a few more days of this, if you don't steady out, of Lutnick getting thrown out.
I've felt that Bessent has said some out of touch things, but he apparently had the less crazy idea and lost out internally.
I've felt that Bessent has said some out of touch things, but he apparently had the less crazy idea and lost out internally.
Shaggy
Member
Yet somehow gas is now back over $3
GeorgiaGirl
Member
I mean, oil was over $70 just two days ago, I suspect some coordination with Saudi led to the oil spigots being swung open in coordination to ease inflation if the world doesn't negotiate involving tariffs.
If this level in particular lasts, I'll probably end up back at $2.69-2.79, if not lower, but you'll need much lower WTI for much lower gas due to us switching to a summer blend.
Does anyone have a link to a list of the largest two day % declines for the Dow, S&P, and Nasdaq? I know this wasn’t even close to the highest, but I’m curious how many times the two day % decline has been higher than that of the last two days.
I know you were asking for percentages and this doesn’t answer that but still pretty crazy
Stunned that 2024 gains in tech (QQQ) been wiped out in a few weeks.
I lightend up my IRA yesterday and now 80% cash in both IRA and 401k and I normally would be shoving money back in tech with Qs down 22% from highs in a few weeks but really feels like we are going much much lower. I am terrified to do anything right now.
Past 15+ years, the SPY weekly has been below 30 2 other times...covid crash and financial crisis...and now this time.
I lightend up my IRA yesterday and now 80% cash in both IRA and 401k and I normally would be shoving money back in tech with Qs down 22% from highs in a few weeks but really feels like we are going much much lower. I am terrified to do anything right now.
Past 15+ years, the SPY weekly has been below 30 2 other times...covid crash and financial crisis...and now this time.
It’s a given. So many variables point to it.
Nerman
Member
It is going much lower unless the tariffs are walked back by Wednesday. I think the markets could have absorbed the 10% tariffs going into effect tomorrow but not the ridiculousness scheduled to take effect next week. Markets actually started pumping when the WSJ released the 10% number but then obviously crashed when the chart came out.
I was loaded to the gills in puts for liberation day (and cash) but the mistake I made was selling most of them Thursday. I scalped a few today but it could have been a crazy week.
I'm 100% cash going into the weekend across all accounts except my 401k which I've increased contributions.
I doubt Lutnick is going to be thrown out. He’s one of Trumps main tariff supporters. IMO I think Bessent is more likely to go out.
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Yeah, if I am under 40 I am loving this market....those will get to invest in their 401k for years to come into a severe bear market. I would be setting up 529's...IRA's...roth IRA's and just putting in whatever you can.
Trump isn't backing off. Trump already went through this in 2018 and he didn't care about the market. Tariffs now are much worse than what he did in 2018. I just can't imagine him caving after a week...well I guess China could cave and then he would lift tariffs but I don't see that happening either.
I think what we will see is Trump start beating on the Fed to cut rates and he will blame them for the market.
Maybe these tariffs will mark the beginning of the end for hyper consumerism. That’d be cool
GeorgiaGirl
Member
Nah, I don't see this perspective, not for a guy that has based every presidency on the stock market.
He may talk tough now, but there will be a point where he switches to trying to pump, and I think we're pulling forward a bunch of things here.
Worst week for stocks since COVID = best week for VIX futures since COVID. Always money to be made.
He won’t cave…only way this ends if other countries cave. Like Vietnam did. And China/Europe aren’t caving. But…we will see.
I don't know why foreign countries are so worried about tariffs, and all we keep hearing is that the US citizens will be paying the extra cost. Something doesn't add up.. all these countries screaming Free Trade free trade have been tariffing the US for decades.
The cost of living in China is half of what is here. Avg salary in China is like $17k where US is about $60k. So why would we want the US to manufacture certain products instead of China when it would cost 2 to 3x here in the US. We don’t want low paying manufacturing jobs, we want the higher paying professional jobs.
I imagine there is certain exports that make sense with targeted exports. But even if you are manufacturing “stuff” in the US a lot of the times the part(s) that go in there are made in China. Now that’s going to cost 30-40% more. It would kill small businesses.
Maybe Trump expects China to eat the costs…but they won’t. If China exports 1000 iPhones to the US then Apple will pay that tariff. You think Apple eats that cost or raises prices? And when the tariff ends do you think Apple will drop prices?
China increasing tariffs last week will kill our farmers, our biggest export to China is grains. Now, does a China say screw the US will go elsewhere, buy less, or do they start farming.
Keep in mind…Trump wants to create an External Revenue Service agency to handle the tariffs. His plan is to use tariffs to lower taxes. He thinks countries like China will pay the tariffs but that’s not how it works, the companies here consuming China products (Apple, Walmart, Target, etc…) pay the tariffs. He has said 100 different ways that tariffs are his plan. But they do probably eventually get lowered.
The US is the largest consumer economy on the planet and the 2nd largest manufacturing economy on the planet. There’s no way us jumping off the bridge doesn’t affect everyone else economically. Contagion may prove to be a popular word if the tariffs aren’t dropped soon.
Another factor here is the post 2024 election run up in inventory across the country. Business knew something was coming but never could have imagined this. Finishers looking for raw materials and assemblers looking for components are in a pickle right now holding 30-60 days of inventory before re-ordering. Some slowness was expected entering Q2 while this was burned through and now looking ahead pay attention to things like orders for durable goods. If tariffs aren’t dropped by 4/25 you’re looking at companies buying less and laying off workers. The tariffs in effect are a supply shock similar but less intense than Covid. 60 days from now shortages of consumer products and commercial products will hit if this doesn’t change.
In 2024 there was a record number of families going on vacation in Europe from America also in 2024 there was a record number of food banks. If things stay the same the middle class is going away.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
A tariff won't fix that as much as investing in diversified infrastructure will. All that gets built are luxury this and that too that forces the middle class into the lower class and those trying to reach the upper to strain into it at risk of falling. Just ad we need affordable goods and housing we need moderate for it all too. History also says tarrifs never pass anything positive onto the consumer.
Cramer thinks when the market reopens, it will be like Black Monday 1987
Shaggy
Member
If you think these tariffs increase negotiations just look at the sale of tik tok. It was claimed the tariffs gave the US "great negotiating" power over the sale and yet China says no thanks amd the US is forced to extend the deadline 75 days
The only thing that can fix the middle class is the death of delusion.
Thu/Fri combined had a Dow drop of 9.24%, the highest 2 day drop since the pandemic and the 14th highest on record. This was the 2nd largest 2 day % decline on record for a Thu/Fri, 2nd only to the -14.4% of 7/20-21/1933! Since after WW2, a 9.24%+ two day drop had occurred only during the 1987 crash (1), the 2008 financial meltdown (2), and the 2020 pandemic (1)!
Going back further, this occurred only in the Dec 1899 panic over liquidity (1), during the big crash/depression (7), and just after Germany invaded France/Benelux in 1940 (1).
There have been a total of 29 8%+ two day Dow drops ever. Of these 29, 20 (69%) rose the next day (range in % 0.3 to 14.9). The range for the 9 drops in % was 0.3 to 7.8. The avg for the 29 was a 2.5% bounce.
So, these stats suggest a bounce is likely though far from certain on Monday. To get a 1,000+ point Dow gain, a 2.6%+ gain would be needed. A whopping 15 of the 29 had just that suggesting ~50% chance for a 1,000++ point bounce on Mon.
OTOH, we need to still be wary of a possible 3rd really bad day in a row. That’s because the same stats suggest ~10% chance for a 2,000+ drop on Mon.
Interestingly, when the 3rd day was on a Monday (4 cases), there were no really bad days and there were two strong days: -1.1%, -0.8%, +2.6%, and +6.6% giving an avg of +1.8%. But the sample size is small.
Friday closing near the lows is admittedly a bad sign as that means large buyers at the end of the session were largely absent likely due to worry about further significant downside on Monday. So, at the least, it will likely open down Mon absent positive news before then. But even if it opens sharply down, any positive news on Monday or at least the lack of more bad tariff news may be all that’s needed for a relief bounce Monday after the worst two day period in 5 years.
@KyloG
Going back further, this occurred only in the Dec 1899 panic over liquidity (1), during the big crash/depression (7), and just after Germany invaded France/Benelux in 1940 (1).
There have been a total of 29 8%+ two day Dow drops ever. Of these 29, 20 (69%) rose the next day (range in % 0.3 to 14.9). The range for the 9 drops in % was 0.3 to 7.8. The avg for the 29 was a 2.5% bounce.
So, these stats suggest a bounce is likely though far from certain on Monday. To get a 1,000+ point Dow gain, a 2.6%+ gain would be needed. A whopping 15 of the 29 had just that suggesting ~50% chance for a 1,000++ point bounce on Mon.
OTOH, we need to still be wary of a possible 3rd really bad day in a row. That’s because the same stats suggest ~10% chance for a 2,000+ drop on Mon.
Interestingly, when the 3rd day was on a Monday (4 cases), there were no really bad days and there were two strong days: -1.1%, -0.8%, +2.6%, and +6.6% giving an avg of +1.8%. But the sample size is small.
Friday closing near the lows is admittedly a bad sign as that means large buyers at the end of the session were largely absent likely due to worry about further significant downside on Monday. So, at the least, it will likely open down Mon absent positive news before then. But even if it opens sharply down, any positive news on Monday or at least the lack of more bad tariff news may be all that’s needed for a relief bounce Monday after the worst two day period in 5 years.
@KyloG
broken025
Member
Nice. Green Monday
That is what I was thinking. I know very little about the stock market, but doesn't to past seem to say if Cramer says crash, expect a boom?
weatherboyy
Member
We're headed to a massive recession
The US National Economic Council head says about 50 countries have approached the White House with proposal for trade talks.
We need to build more housing. Housing affordability would do more to help the middle and lower classes than anything else.
So green on Monday?
At some point we probably see China/US come to some sort of agreement and the market will rip 8-12% is a week but I don't think that happens this week. And tariffs are only a part of our problem...we are going to see 500-600k federal employees laid off (probably more) over a short period of time. Trump has cancelled so many contracts with private companies that they will do layoffs too...the spillover to the private sector will be worse than the 500-600k from just federal. Grants are being cancelled to Universities, so they will have layoffs and that impacts even more. I think we see unemployment rate well over 5% by Q4.
Past 4 times unemployment rate was below 5% and then ripped above it the SPX dropped on avg 45%, give or take. 2020, 2007, 2000, 1969. Currently it's down 17%.
But as far as this week and next I think we see a hard 8-12% bounce. it's so far extended but so much leverage to unwind still. I would be looking for a big gap down and reclaim the prior days low and then maybe I would swing something. I wouldn't chase any sort of gap up, those always get sold in these situations. Well that's assuming we don't get a trade deal with China....if that happens, it's all bets off and market would be manic. I've traded so little the past couple of months and mostly cash in IRA/401k that I am terrified to do anything right now.
One very interesting development is Musk was rather quiet on tariffs and then yesterday was speaking out against Trump and trashing Navarro, Trumps economic advisor. Musk donated $250-$300m to Trumps campaign and has been crushed along with Tesla for doge work. Trump doesn’t take kindly to anyone not loyal to him. That relationship may not end well if tariffs persist, Elon is about what’s best for Elon and tariffs aren’t.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Elon has also not done much to help his public image, and his ties into government currently directly correlate to everything under him being affected. It's a conflict of interest that is tanking each of his industries. Just look at tesla's stock since Trump took office and he took a role. Of course Tesla also is suffering due to quality issues, promises as a company that aren't being met, and overall competition outdoing them slowly globally. It's a very pessimistic outlook for any of his companies currently.
Just saw this…market ain’t going zero so eventually tariffs will be priced in but I don’t think we are close. Even without tariffs and layoffs and much lower govt spending market was due for a 10-12% correction. SPY only down 16% I think.
