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Wintry Feb. 19-20

One of the dramatic Wake County gradient analogs that Eric Webb mentioned earlier was the December 9, 2018 event where the gradient set up smack dab on top of central Wake County. Interestingly though, that event had a significantly better flow of CAD air from a high positioned to the north (1033MB high over PA) instead of far to the northwest) and WAA still made it as far north as it did.

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I'd question whether our current event would be able to stave off the WAA surge quite as well as that event given the high placement. My guess is that sleet will win out more in central Wake without the 1033MB push from due north.
 
NCwx1992 said:
so the areas shown in the red block of 90+% for the last three images here are the most likely to receive said crush, right? triangle / a bit NE of it?
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Yep. That map doesn't show thermals but 0.5 to 0.8 is typically the sweet spot for winter storms and many of the storms up north have that pivoting while tightening feature when they're deepening. I'm jelly lol.
 
I'll be really interested to see what happens in Northern GA/Upstate SC not if but when the hi-res models come in line with reality on the qpf.

I feel very confident in widespread .15-.25 for this area... and I think when they finally show that happening you're gonna see a rapid crashing of rain/snow line for area's like Gainesville to Toccoa,GA to Anderson, SC.

Won't be shocked if we wind up with a widespread 1-2 inch snowfall for this area when it's all said and done.

I also think Spartanburg to Charlotte is a virtual lock for 1.5 to 3 inches. (assuming the qpf goes as I think it will)
 
blueheronNC said:
One of the dramatic Wake County gradient analogs that Eric Webb mentioned earlier was the December 9, 2018 event where the gradient set up smack dab on top of central Wake County. Interestingly though, that event had a significantly better flow of CAD air from a high positioned to the north (1033MB high over PA) instead of far to the northwest) and WAA still made it as far north as it did.

View attachment 170428
View attachment 170429

View attachment 170431

I'd question whether our current event would be able to stave off the WAA surge quite as well as that event given the high placement. My guess is that sleet will win out more in central Wake without the 1033MB push from due north.
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Isn't the background airmass in general colder here, though? It's snowing in TN with this one, not raining, for example. Not as dependent on solely CAD. I wasn't around here for that one, so I may be wrong, though.
 
if we manage to squeeze out one of these upper end 0.75-1.0qpf type solutions somebody could jackpot big time. i'd be nervously excited about boom potential if i was up in louisburg/roanoke rapids/emporia va vicinity
 
jackendrickwx said:
if we manage to squeeze out one of these upper end 0.75-1.0qpf type solutions somebody could jackpot big time. i'd be nervously excited about boom potential if i was up in louisburg/roanoke rapids/emporia va vicinity
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I’m really excited about the potential being in Youngsville


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QPF from these 2 models. It’s very interesting because the GFS has stronger warm air advection hence the higher QPF, and the band of higher QPF right and along it, meanwhile the euro is weaker with the WAA and results in less QPF. To be fair we always do higher then modeled WAA…
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Myfrotho704_ said:
EPS has been consistent, of course there’s the warm nose to worry about which makes the southern end of those higher totals east suspect but other then that, steady View attachment 170432
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There could be wild swings in totals on the southern edge depending on just how strong and deep that warm nose is if its 50 miles further south or thinner then it will have big impacts on totals...the transverse is also true I guess but we will ignore that lol. QPF outputs for my neck of the woods is probably averaging nearly a inch. Snowfall maps all keep me under 2-3" but 30 miles north and it's 6-10 lol...we won't really know till game time.
 
I know it has no real bearing on us in the southeast, but the NAM/RAP/HRRR all have lower precip shields than being depected on radar right now.
 
The HREF that was posted awhile back. I believe that’s a high resolution ensemble, it showed decent chance of higher QPF, I wouldn’t worry about QPF imo


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Here's the thing about the end of the RAP run... it lines up rather well with the Euro/EPS/RGEM/ICON/GFS on qpf arrival and intensity for the upstate.

My concerns here have been wasting qpf to rain/white rain while the boundary layer cools, and the RAP just said I don't have to worry about that too much.

Great run for that aspect alone. That's what we needed to see.
 
superjames1992 said:
Just use then RAP / HRRR at your own risk. Never really gotten much value out of them, but maybe I use them wrong. They've sure sent me on wild goose chases looking for snow that didn't usually pan out, though.
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For sure! They can have wins on occasion, but I wouldn’t consider them useful after hours 6-8 or so. You can drive yourself crazy looking at them every hour.
 
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