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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

ChattaVOL said:
MRX Discussion:

Cold air will remain entrenched across the area this week, generally
running 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Zonal flow will keep the
midweek period fairly quiet.

However, the next southern Rockies system will begin ejecting into the central and southern Plains states Thursday-Friday, drawing up a large slug of Gulf moisture into the southeastern U.S. and Tennessee
Valley on Friday, persisting Friday night and departing Saturday.

This event continues to show model potential for being another wintry weather system. The latest 12Z GFS run is bringing with it 6 to 8 inches of snow to our Valley, although the previous 06Z run kept those impacts away from us and in the Ohio Valley. The previous 00Z GFS run before that covered our Valley with 4 to 6 inches. The ECMWF has been less aggressive with the 00Z and 06Z runs, and am
still awaiting the 12Z run. So, besides the inconsistent (but not unexpected) flip-flops in the GFS runs, there remains disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF overall.

This situation will continue to bear monitoring, as surface temperature forecasts beneath a good southwesterly flow aloft (which this will have) tend to warm - and impacts wane - as such events
draw nigh in time.
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Always one of the most conservative weather offices.
 
1736115530805.png1736115564978.pngJust insane run to tun difference in the upper level presentation for next week. Evening run really phases the energy together in an effective way for STRONG cyclogenisis at the surface. This would change any snow event to a big ice storm in the foothills, and probably produce rain most other places. This scenario also increases a power outage risk not only because of ice, but much stronger surface winds.
 
GMengel said:
View attachment 160060View attachment 160061Just insane run to tun difference in the upper level presentation for next week. Evening run really phases the energy together in an effective way for STRONG cyclogenisis at the surface. This would change any snow event to a big ice storm in the foothills, and probably produce rain most other places. This scenario also increases a power outage risk not only because of ice, but much stronger surface winds.
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I guess that answers my question about the ridging from LA northward would do. Not so great..
 
Can't remember a storm where we can't even get to evaluating a war between the models because of the wars WITHIN the models! I mean, you can't even set up "camps" when the run-to-run changes are so profound. Crazy. That 18z GFS is ridiculously different from the 12z and that's not the first time it has happened. Which leads me to repeat -- talk with confidence about the outcome (good or bad) of this storm at your own peril.

(And, anybody who does so and happens to get it right was surely more lucky than good).
 
beanskip said:
Can't remember a storm where we can't even get to evaluating a war between the models because of the wars WITHIN the models! I mean, you can't even set up "camps" when the run-to-run changes are so profound. Crazy. That 18z GFS is ridiculously different from the 12z and that's not the first time it has happened. Which leads me to repeat -- talk with confidence about the outcome (good or bad) of this storm at your own peril.

(And, anybody who does so and happens to get it right was surely more lucky than good).
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lots of divergent paths because of how finicky the trough interactions are. this is just what we have to deal with for a few days

visualize it like a golf putt over a mound- tiny errors get magnified- compared to putting in a bowl, where everything funnels towards the hole
 
The GFS is likely overstating the cold air based on its 850mb temperature anomalies and the associated storm track. While the model shows a substantial cold pool over the Southern Plains, it appears to exaggerate the eastward progression and strength of that cold air as the storm develops. This is evident in how the GFS depicts a broader area of snow and mixed precipitation further south and east than what might realistically occur, given the relatively weaker ridge dynamics and less supportive CAD setup.

The GFS seems to assume that the cold air will maintain its influence across the Southeast despite warm Gulf air overrunning the region. However, with the lack of a stronger ridge to hold the cold air in place and the storm track being more northerly, the warm air is likely to intrude faster than the GFS accounts for. This overstatement of cold air’s reach results in a colder, snowier solution that may not align with the overall pattern or the dynamics shown in other models. I really don't agree with this model run at all. Seems like a new pattern.
 
Although this run shows a snowier pattern, it’s not a good outcome if you’re hoping for widespread snow. The setup relies heavily on overstated cold air intrusion and doesn't fully account for the likely weakening of CAD and the warm air overrunning from the Gulf. This leads to a scenario where the snow zone might not materialize as modeled, and the pattern could trend warmer with more rain or mixed precipitation dominating.
 
jimmy said:
The GFS is likely overstating the cold air based on its 850mb temperature anomalies and the associated storm track. While the model shows a substantial cold pool over the Southern Plains, it appears to exaggerate the eastward progression and strength of that cold air as the storm develops. This is evident in how the GFS depicts a broader area of snow and mixed precipitation further south and east than what might realistically occur, given the relatively weaker ridge dynamics and less supportive CAD setup.

The GFS seems to assume that the cold air will maintain its influence across the Southeast despite warm Gulf air overrunning the region. However, with the lack of a stronger ridge to hold the cold air in place and the storm track being more northerly, the warm air is likely to intrude faster than the GFS accounts for. This overstatement of cold air’s reach results in a colder, snowier solution that may not align with the overall pattern or the dynamics shown in other models. I really don't agree with this model run at all. Seems like a new pattern.
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Agree we’ve seen this movie before
 
jimmy said:
The GFS is likely overstating the cold air based on its 850mb temperature anomalies and the associated storm track. While the model shows a substantial cold pool over the Southern Plains, it appears to exaggerate the eastward progression and strength of that cold air as the storm develops. This is evident in how the GFS depicts a broader area of snow and mixed precipitation further south and east than what might realistically occur, given the relatively weaker ridge dynamics and less supportive CAD setup.

The GFS seems to assume that the cold air will maintain its influence across the Southeast despite warm Gulf air overrunning the region. However, with the lack of a stronger ridge to hold the cold air in place and the storm track being more northerly, the warm air is likely to intrude faster than the GFS accounts for. This overstatement of cold air’s reach results in a colder, snowier solution that may not align with the overall pattern or the dynamics shown in other models. I really don't agree with this model run at all. Seems like a new pattern.
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So which models if any are taken into consideration the snow and ice that we will have established from Tennessee north to affect the temperatures or precipitation that we may get south of Tennessee… like Georgia, Alabama, Alabama, South Carolina, North Carolina areas
 
1318ca5e1b4d9dea38e5eab0bbf579c1.jpg


Hard to hate this look 5 days out.


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