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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie

This is the kind of long-range discussion I've waited a long time to read again.

RAH:

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY...
As of 340 PM Sunday...

...DRY WITH COLD/WELL-BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...

...POTENTIAL FOR WINTRY P-TYPE CONCERNS FRIDAY EVENING/SATURDAY

Underneath upper troughing and with an expansive area of Arctic high
pressure in place over over the central and eastern CONUS, cold,
well-below normal temperatures will be a main stay through the
remainder of the work week. Highs each day will generally range from
mid/upper 30s north to lower/mid 40s south, with Thursday
potentially being the coldest 24 hour period via renewed sfc
pressure rises and resultant CAA. Lows each night in the mid/upper
teens to lower 20s.

The next chance for precipitation will arrive late Friday and
Saturday with the northeastward ejection of a surface low through
the GOM, Deep South, and SE US. With the antecedent arctic air in
place, there is the potential for wintry precip across the region as
moisture overspreads the area from the SW Friday night and into
Saturday. The parent shortwave trough forecast to drive this
developing storm system is currently in a data sparse region off the
Pacific NW Coast. So unsurprisingly, model spread is currently high,
but should hopefully start to decrease once the trough moves
onto the NW coast onshore tonight and Monday.

NWP model guidance is starting to trend towards a complex,
Miller-B pattern across the region with insitu-CAD in place over the
NC Piedmont. This pattern typically results in well-defined
corridors of mixed precip types, which are closely aligned to the
eventual track and location of the southern stream low pressure
center. Even a slight northward or southward shift in track will
result in significant changes in precip types and amounts. At this
time, all wintry p-types remain a possibility across central NC.
For forecast simplicity, will stay with a snow-rain forecast, with
the snow largely confined to climatological favored areas across the
Piedmont, western Sandhills, and northern/central coastal plain.
Residents should closely monitor the latest forecasts for potential
winter impacts.
 
Just an observation, I would be careful taking the StormVista snow maps verbatim- especially on the southern side. I’ve noticed it’s a lot more generous than weatherbell the couple of times it’s been posted and we’ve had something to compare it to. It may count more sleet/ZR as snow
 
jrips27 said:
Just an observation, I would be careful taking the StormVista snow maps verbatim- especially on the southern side. I’ve noticed it’s a lot more generous than weatherbell the couple of times it’s been posted and we’ve had something to compare it to. It may count more sleet/ZR as snow
Click to expand...
Agree - probably just best to view it for north / south trends
 
Shawn said:
NWS disagrees:
Click to expand...
Good for them. They really nailed it here in northern NC today....................

From nws Falls Lake post above

region off the
Pacific NW Coast. So unsurprisingly, model spread is currently high,
but should hopefully start to decrease once the trough moves
onto the NW coast onshore tonight and Monday.
 
MRX Discussion:

Cold air will remain entrenched across the area this week, generally
running 5 to 10 degrees below normal. Zonal flow will keep the
midweek period fairly quiet.

However, the next southern Rockies system will begin ejecting into the central and southern Plains states Thursday-Friday, drawing up a large slug of Gulf moisture into the southeastern U.S. and Tennessee
Valley on Friday, persisting Friday night and departing Saturday.

This event continues to show model potential for being another wintry weather system. The latest 12Z GFS run is bringing with it 6 to 8 inches of snow to our Valley, although the previous 06Z run kept those impacts away from us and in the Ohio Valley. The previous 00Z GFS run before that covered our Valley with 4 to 6 inches. The ECMWF has been less aggressive with the 00Z and 06Z runs, and am
still awaiting the 12Z run. So, besides the inconsistent (but not unexpected) flip-flops in the GFS runs, there remains disagreement between the GFS and ECMWF overall.

This situation will continue to bear monitoring, as surface temperature forecasts beneath a good southwesterly flow aloft (which this will have) tend to warm - and impacts wane - as such events
draw nigh in time.
&&


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It looks bad at face value on a different source. The heights are pumping out in front at 500mb, and over time, if the run went longer, the WAA would take over in a lot of areas. Enough so, the PTYPE is rain on the initial precipitation, outside the mountains.
 
iGRXY said:
At worst that's snow to ice in the western carolinas and piedmont
Click to expand...
It was gonna carbon copy 12z, exceot move frozen qpf line north about 40 miles. Had the 1028 HP in the MA futher north up into NY. It would have pulled more cold down backside on its way to coast, had it not stopped at frame 120.
 
Yall the icon looked great for the upstate. The northern trough is dropping in and the precip field is about to blowup again(something the 12zicon didn't do). Would have been a great front end thump for the upstate and possibly staying all snow north of I-85 as the thermal field pivots. Lots of sleet and ice below that line.

It's a bad run for the Columbia area though. They need the weak slider solution to have a shot.

A huge step for stopping the bleeding of dampening everything out that happened on the 12z runs.
 
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