Gefs looking a lot like the icon so far vs it’s own op 
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Wintry 1/9-12 Winter Potential Great Dane or Yorkie
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Just makes me slightly nervous to see that given we’re getting closer to this thing reaching the west coast and getting better obs on it. But still plenty of time
We are in 12 hour swings. Probably will get worse. Then it’ll get better this afternoon into this evening. Then it’ll lock in & we will rage late next week
It never has chance to. Per this model run it gets cut off and just sits there lingering so it doesn't even have a chance to amp. In that scenario it wouldn't matter.
On that run absolutely
Southern Track
Member
Yeah we need to stop that trend soon.
Truly wish we could get the ens on board. The only ens right now ringing bells is the Canadian
Meanwhile the 06z euro looks way improved 
packfan98
Moderator
Still too many options on the table I think.
Seems to be an increase on the 06z GEFS. .5 inch mean for south central Alabama and we had been a lot lower then that the previous 4 cycles! Have not seen that second shade of gray in a hot minute! 
The GEFS is the slowest/furthest west with the SW ULL. The GEPS and EPS are in close agreement on day eight.
FWIW, at only 84 hours, the 6z RGEM/00z CMC differ wildly from the GFS regarding placement and strength of the vort max, which is progged by most modeling to cut off in the SW at least for a time. It's clear very early on that the Canadian suite isn't going to bury our system of interest and the 6Z RGEM continues that solution.
I'd expect the higher-performing GFS to win out, but I'm rooting for the canucks on this one. (ICON camp too).
I'd expect the higher-performing GFS to win out, but I'm rooting for the canucks on this one. (ICON camp too).
You know, I’m actually rooting for Grit’s idea from days ago. Shoot that stupid ULL to the west and dig the northern stream SW and let us ride with whatever that spins up.
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
We’re going to have some bad runs show up off and on probably for a while yet trying to get this Baja low/northern stream interaction because it’s a complicated setup. But to see the CMC/Euro ens in agreement, that’s a positive in that regard.
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Bigedd09
Member
Anyone have 6z EPS?
NEGaweather
Member
NEGaweather
Member
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06z AIFS is a QPF bomb
CNCsnwfan1210
Member
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Point blank, signal is there
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Bigedd09
Member
AI has been consistent with that but temps have been concerning. A mix of that and something like the 0z EURO would probably be good
Bigedd09
Member
How did the 6z EPS look?
Forevertothee
Member
From GSP
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday: Below normal temps expected for the middle of
next week as deep troughing continues across the eastern CONUS. NW
flow snow showers are expected to taper off Monday night, as dry
high pressure builds in behind the departing low. Temps in the teens
combined with lingering breezy conditions may bring apparent temps
below zero in the high elevations early Tuesday morning. From there,
the air mass will be slow to modify, with temps continuing to be
5-10 deg below normal thru Thursday. The medium range guidance
disagrees on whether moisture returns by next Friday. The GFS
has a deeper longwave trough and taps into Gulf moisture that
spreads in by Friday evening. But there is not much support from
the Ensembles. For now, some slgt chc PoPs creep in on new Day 7,
but confidence remains low. If moisture does return, the thicknesses
in place would support potential wintry precip types.
LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 300 AM Friday: Below normal temps expected for the middle of
next week as deep troughing continues across the eastern CONUS. NW
flow snow showers are expected to taper off Monday night, as dry
high pressure builds in behind the departing low. Temps in the teens
combined with lingering breezy conditions may bring apparent temps
below zero in the high elevations early Tuesday morning. From there,
the air mass will be slow to modify, with temps continuing to be
5-10 deg below normal thru Thursday. The medium range guidance
disagrees on whether moisture returns by next Friday. The GFS
has a deeper longwave trough and taps into Gulf moisture that
spreads in by Friday evening. But there is not much support from
the Ensembles. For now, some slgt chc PoPs creep in on new Day 7,
but confidence remains low. If moisture does return, the thicknesses
in place would support potential wintry precip types.
Slower with the Baja wave… but the northern peice in Canada is perhaps a bit better ? It’s hard whether I hate it more or less because the western ridge is tilted more neutrally up into AK which we need
Last 4 GFS Graphcast runs
What does the latest AIFS show ? Hasn’t loaded yet on wxbell
I'd assume this is temperature issues?
Temps have been fine on it consistently. Probably just a less juicy run this past one
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rburrel2
Member
The AIFS has easily been the most consistent model for this storm.
Just to recap where we stand:
Option 1: Cut off doesn't fully occlude and comes out quick(resulting in gulf coast storm): 00zCMC/ 06z Icon
Option 2: Cut off occludes around baja and then drifts east and gets pulled in to the trough(big storm): 06z Euro Ai, 00z graphcast
Option 3: Cut off occludes/drifts in to the pacific(no storm/weak storm from northern trough): 00z Euro, 06z GFS, 00z Ukmet, 00z Spire
06z Euro looks to keep the cut off out of the pacific(maybe option 2)
Place your bets
Just to recap where we stand:
Option 1: Cut off doesn't fully occlude and comes out quick(resulting in gulf coast storm): 00zCMC/ 06z Icon
Option 2: Cut off occludes around baja and then drifts east and gets pulled in to the trough(big storm): 06z Euro Ai, 00z graphcast
Option 3: Cut off occludes/drifts in to the pacific(no storm/weak storm from northern trough): 00z Euro, 06z GFS, 00z Ukmet, 00z Spire
06z Euro looks to keep the cut off out of the pacific(maybe option 2)
Place your bets
Maybe we should make a public Google sheet to update on what each model is showing for quick reference.
It'd probably be good to track the AI model performance anyways
belowfreezing
Member
Burrel I will take Option 2. Concerned we do not see a trend of Option 3 today. What is your gut telling you about this storm?
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Where can I cash out at?
NCSNOW
Member
My concern as well. Todays runs through Sunday morn will confirm whether we have a storm to track or a ghost. I get the fears folks have of amping,northern trends etc. But first goal is to actually have a storm.
Bigedd09
Member
Not sure if I trust the AI models yet. But I definitely don't trust the GFS either. I think a blend of option 1 and 2 would be best case scenario. I mean the storm this weakened is undergoing fairly significant changes and it's only 2 days out. LONG ways to go on this one
Bigedd09
Member
Pretty crazy how models know where that I-85 corridor is lol
rburrel2
Member
I'm worried way more about the no storm/weak storm scenario. Mainly because that's what almost all of the ensemble members are showing.
beanskip
Member
Old Man Skip checking in again -- please, please, please don't ignore surface temps. I can't tell you how many times snow-lovers tracking a storm have seen model runs with easily cold enough air and then just assumed that would hold. Or, super low dewpoints and assumed the wet bulb temps would be below freezing. Haven't seen the temp profiles on the 6z AIFS, but the writing was on the wall with the 0z run. GSP to CLT was either at or above freezing the entire time of precip.
That pesky, obnoxious, unwanted Great Lakes low is likely at least partially to blame -- it popped up on the 0z AIFS.
That pesky, obnoxious, unwanted Great Lakes low is likely at least partially to blame -- it popped up on the 0z AIFS.
rburrel2
Member
100%.
I think the Icon and CMC are lost with their depiction(because who would bet on those two scoring a win). We're probably down to two scenarios... either the cut off gets absorbed and we have a doozy, or it doesn't and we have no storm or possibly a weak overrunning event.