Pattern Jan 2025 Powered by Rheem AC

[Bill Smith]

Hang on its 300+ hours away

As always. I'll check back in February when the trees are budding again and the sky is full of chemtrails

 

[Brick Tamland]

Epo, nao, mjo still no snow

None of that has materialized yet. I know, that what you're saying, and I'm skeptical too. But the kind of pattern being advertised is a KU pattern.

It's just fun to actually have a reason to watch the models again. We like weak cool Modoki ENSO events, right?

 

[jeremyt]

None of that has materialized yet. I know, that what you're saying, and I'm skeptical too. But the kind of pattern being advertised is a KU pattern.

It's just fun to actually have a reason to watch the models again. We like weak cool Modoki ENSO events, right?

PHD Brick has emerged! I’m liking it!

 

[accu35]

None of that has materialized yet. I know, that what you're saying, and I'm skeptical too. But the kind of pattern being advertised is a KU pattern.

It's just fun to actually have a reason to watch the models again. We like weak cool Modoki ENSO events, right?

Welcome to the board

 

[Bill Smith]

None of that has materialized yet. I know, that what you're saying, and I'm skeptical too. But the kind of pattern being advertised is a KU pattern.

It's just fun to actually have a reason to watch the models again. We like weak cool Modoki ENSO events, right?

Too much mumbo jumbo not enough results

 

[Carolina Jones]

It's kind of silly to be analyzing a post-300 GFS operational image, but it just illustrates the potential of this pattern.

You can see on the first image, the southern wave just out ahead of the northern stream wave. A slight difference in timing here could result in a phase, turning the trough negative giving us a true big dog. As is, a few frames later, you still get some light snow for some parts of the area.

Fun times ahead, as others have said.

View attachment 156981
View attachment 156982

Finally have someone here that knows what they're talking about.

 

[Bill Smith]

Welcome to the board

Thank you

 

[SD]

Icon says congrats to riegelwood and delco

 

[NCSNOW]

Some of these footprints. If we got member 16 I'd just delete my account and if the board closed that's fine we'd never match that as a region again

View attachment 156942View attachment 156943

Dear Lord look at 14 and 24. Talk about a kick to the groin.

 

[AJ1013]

Yep. Member 25 has 2 events over a foot 3 days apart. That would be legendary!
View attachment 156971

P15 has snow in the Bahamas lmfao

 

[AJ1013]

Just for fun. EPS snowfall outlook for Tampa

 

[Stormdoc]

Hmm, incoming on GFS?

 

[Stevo24]

View attachment 156990
Hmm, incoming on GFS?

Not a chance. It wouldn’t fit the schedule of one good run followed by 10 bad.

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

View attachment 156990
Hmm, incoming on GFS?

It's trying to get there.

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Not a chance. It wouldn’t fit the schedule of one good run followed by 10 bad.

https://southernwx.com/community/threads/cold-season-complaining.1329/page-120

 

[SD]

View attachment 156990
Hmm, incoming on GFS?

That was close actually popped a couple blips of snow across our area

 

[Stormdoc]

That was close actually popped a couple blips of snow across our area

I think a little more dig or negative tilt would have done it. CMC was also close

 

[griteater]

I kind of like how this GFS run is dumping the trough farther west. Marry that with the CMC and Euro ideas and we're in good shape

 

[TheBatman]

Beautiful

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Yep one came through upstate one year (can't remember when), It started snowing around 5pm and by 10pm there was 3" on the ground. They can work pretty good around here at times

Only clipper I ever remember delivering anything for the upstate was Jan 96, right after the Blizzard. Gave nearly 4 new inches of puff to my back yard.

 

[griteater]

Improvement with the NAO on last 4 runs of CMC for Jan 5

 

[griteater]

Another tick of improvement with the AO and NAO on the GEFS for Jan 4

 

[griteater]

Clear AO/NAO improvement shown with CMC Ensemble as well for Jan 4

 

[Arcc]

I kind of like how this GFS run is dumping the trough farther west. Marry that with the CMC and Euro ideas and we're in good shape

View attachment 156996

And that is how we get another 12/08/17.

 

[griteater]

And that is how we get another 12/08/17.

Yep, looks a lot like that one

 

[Billypg70]

Only clipper I ever remember delivering anything for the upstate was Jan 96, right after the Blizzard. Gave nearly 4 new inches of puff to my back yard.

I agree they have been few & far between imby also!
Maybe a few,
My memory is failing me in my older age!
I think it has more to do with how close you are to the mountains!
If you're further away,
Then you may have a better chance but in my case I can literally see the Blue ridge mountains imby!

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Wtf !!!

 

[griteater]

Yeah mega cold blast on the Euro run

 

[Myfrotho704_]

lol

 

[John1122]

The CPC analogs were double weighted 1985 and 1961. Both those featured multiple days below 0 here with some -10s in 1961 and of course -27 imby in 1985.

So I can see why the Euro is playing that extreme tune.

 

[griteater]

GEFS for Jan 7. More -NAO, deeper eastern trough

 

[jrips27]

Think that’s the coldest Euro run I’ve ever seen.

1pm afternoon January 10th temps

Atlanta - 6 degrees
Birmingham - 7 degrees

 

[griteater]

The CPC analogs were double weighted 1985 and 1961. Both those featured multiple days below 0 here with some -10s in 1961 and of course -27 imby in 1985.

So I can see why the Euro is playing that extreme tune.

Temperature probabilities from the CPC Day 8-14 analogs

 

[griteater]

Snow dropping south on the GEFS 48hr snow product on SV

 

[jrips27]

Man what a run. Didn’t even realize this much snow fell 1/8-1/9. No wonder it takes us into the freezer

 

[iGRXY]

Multiple days with highs in the teens on that run lol.

 

[griteater]

Man what a run. Didn’t even realize this much snow fell 1/8-1/9. No wonder it takes us into the freezer
View attachment 157006

Yeah I missed that too. All these model runs are jumbled up together now timing wise.

Update on GEFS snow showing up

 

[iGRXY]

EPS still likes that 1/6-1/8 timeframe

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

Wow an incredible run from the euro. Euro fantasy land is more fun than GFS fantasy land lol..

These were the type of Arctic outbreaks people in here along with me have been talking about. This is possible in a pattern like this. My temperature in southern Illinois got down to -15 and wind chills at -40 … assume record shattering but I’d have to look..

This type of cold is hard to move so I’d assume several winter events can work with this

 

[iGRXY]

Congrats to the I10 Corridor lol