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Severe 12/26-1/1 Severe 🌩

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Peachtree City GA
656 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024



...New 12Z Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 651 AM EST Thu Dec 26 2024

- Cool temps north GA through Friday due to cold-air damming
event persisting into Saturday.

- Scattered showers expected Friday NW spreading east and
increasing in coverage and intensity Saturday and Sunday.

- Heavy rain and strong or even some severe storms possible on
Sunday with up to 3 inches of rain possible.

- Temperatures will be much above normal through the weekend and
into early next week, with colder temperatures returning by
mid-week.
 
Could there be severe weather in southwest AL?
 
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FROM NWS BMX. MAINLY FOR WEST , SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL BAMA

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 350 AM CST FRI DEC 27 2024

Key Messages:

- Severe weather is likely to continue into Saturday night and early
Sunday morning with the risk waning with time and eastward extent.
Threats include tornadoes, damaging winds up to 60 mph, and large
hail.


Models indicate a broad swath of warm sector convection will be
ongoing across Central Alabama at the start of Saturday evening with
stronger storms initially carrying a primary risk for large hail
or severe wind gusts as indicated by modestly steep lapse rates
and eff. bulk shear as high as 50-60kts. Around this time, the
surface low will be deepening over the Mississippi River as the
mid-level portion of the trough attempts to take on a slight
negative tilt. The low-level jet really begins to kick in after
6-7 PM with 50kts of 850mb flow nudging into our west then
expanding across the area, resulting in a more favorable shear
orientation for tornadoes with curved hodographs and progged eff.
SRH values of 300-400 m2/s2. As we continue to move within range
of the hi-resolution models, we may get a better idea of how much
the afternoon and pre-frontal convection will impact the quality
of the warm sector, as that still appears to be the main question
with some of our early hi-res solutions indicating that there
could be some hampering of the thermodynamics due to the
afternoon/evening rainfall. Nonetheless, the risk for tornadoes
certainly looks to become maximized across western, especially
southwestern, portions of the area Saturday night as the surface
low lifts towards Tennessee leading to enhanced dynamics as a
broken line of multi-cells, with some embedded supercells, enters
the western portions of the area along and ahead of the cold
front. This activity will progress eastward during the overnight
hours then most likely be focused across eastern portions of the
area by Sunday morning. The risk for all modes of severe weather
should decrease with time and eastward extent as both instability
wanes and as the low-level jet lifts north of the area as the mid-
level trough pulls further away. We will at least hold on to a
lower end risk of severe weather Sunday morning in the east until
the front and associated thunderstorms clear the area shortly
after sunrise.

Following this active period, another cold front is forecast to
arrive on Tuesday, but moisture return will be quite limited ahead
of this front, and for now we don`t expect anything more than
scattered, light showers Tuesday morning. The weather turns colder
and drier for the second half of the week as the pattern over the
CONUS becomes characterized by broad troughing over the eastern half
and broad ridging over the western half with deep west to
northwesterly flow over Central Alabama.

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Lots of severe weather to go around the next few days, Saturday looks like a big day over Dixie Alley.


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At least it seems I know what I'm doing sometimes. Good to see this general idea from a couple weeks ago is panning out.

Webberweather53 said:
The general stage is being set for some sort of severe weather outbreak over the southern-eastern us after Christmas.

Big pacific jet extension then a collapse and a transition into a colder pattern in early January will require shortening wavelengths and strong cyclones/troughs to use up the background westerly momentum.

Probably will get at least one big storm system that occludes up into the lakes or so and sets the table for the Hudson Bay vortex again.

We’re pretty mild beforehand, won’t have much of an issue getting good instability pretty far to the north for this time of year too
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SD said:
I think we have a problem around here Sunday unless we can fire off a bunch of showers /convection earlier in the day
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The NAM 3k has 2 rounds for some of us in the Carolinas on Sunday. That 2nd line breaks up some as it moves my way and the sounding when it comes in supports tornadoes and shows 450 SBCAPE here.
 
accu35 said:
I’m in the enhanced risk here in SW Bama. Any chance we could go to a moderate?
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Kind late for me watching this system but I’m catching up. Say there is a pretty good shot u go under moderate risk for tomorrow . Lapse rates look great low level shear modest instability . Winter threats don’t take a lot of instability be honest
 
accu35 said:
I’m in the enhanced risk here in SW Bama. Any chance we could go to a moderate?
Click to expand...
I wouldn't be terribly surprised if your area over into South Central MS is upgraded overnight. I think the big question mark is how quickly do things go linear. The early stages to your west probably has a higher chance of being super cellular and tornadic but any delay in forcing and the super cell/tornado threat creeps east
 
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