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Misc Cold Season Complaining

weatherfide said:
I have abandoned any thought of a cold season this year. Every time I check the long range the southeast ridge is strong and goes on for days and days. There is no appreciable rainfall and the flow is mostly mild to warm off the gulf and dry. This is looking like a very bad situation setting up for all of the SE U.S. Drought will be awfully bad in the spring. Unless this pattern breaks in January (highly doubt it), it is certainly going to be record drought and fire danger.
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Agreed, and I guess people aren’t concerned with wild fire it seems. Never in my life have we gone two full calendar months without rain. Not even close.
 
$alt said:
Going to be interesting when we get mid month in December and have a hellacious cold snap out of nowhere then going back to above normal for basically the whole winter
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Everyone is already expecting this. I don't think there are very many here expecting anything other than a full on torch this winter, with the exception of a few days here and there.
 
Rain Cold said:
Everyone is already expecting this. I don't think there are very many here expecting anything other than a full on torch this winter, with the exception of a few days here and there.
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That's about the truth. I don't think I've ever seen morale this low going into winter. And after the last few years and how things have unfolded so far I can see why.
 
GolfishardIknowit70 said:
That's why we only average 5in snow a winter. Even in great patterns, it still relies on timing. No timing, no snow or ice or sleet
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Yeah I mean even out here it was basically one event for like 2 hours the last two winters. Pretty sad

This is just another reason why I'm at least going to Colorado this winter
 
Rain Cold said:
Everyone is already expecting this. I don't think there are very many here expecting anything other than a full on torch this winter, with the exception of a few days here and there.
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Well my gamecocks team who I predicted to win 2 games this season now has over a 60 percent chance at the playoffs via ESPN if we win out.

Won't happen, and even if so, we won't actually make it..

Point is, maybe we will all get a Historic storm as an anomaly.

Id rather be pleasantly surprised than disappointed so I'm going with no snow
 
“Friday Night Lights”
Now that’s an awesome once a year movie must watch IMO ! Love it
 
Saw this today, couldn’t find Helene thread, but interesting IMG_7629.png
 
LukeBarrette said:
Big trough not looking as good…
shocker
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Had some crappy runs overnight yeh, but the mornings runs are coming in better.

I'll say that I am excited to see how the Euro AI model does this Winter. It has done very well with some tropical system this season. It nailed future Sara with no getting it going (still could). That being said, the 06z run shows a big shift this time next week about.
ecmwf-aifs-all-conus-z500_anom-2276800.pngecmwf-aifs-all-conus-t2m_f_anom-2276800.png
 
Mitch West said:
Had some crappy runs overnight yeh, but the mornings runs are coming in better.

I'll say that I am excited to see how the Euro AI model does this Winter. It has done very well with some tropical system this season. It nailed future Sara with no getting it going (still could). That being said, the 06z run shows a big shift this time next week about.
View attachment 154213View attachment 154214
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This looks good at least for some mountain snow, but an idea of a system to latch on to this is a pipe dream. The orientation of the trough on most of the models is very suppressive. Either way I think everyone should take this cold as a sign that we can get bouts of cold later in the winter that do have the orientation for a system to latch on and produce a widespread snow event.
 
LukeBarrette said:
This looks good at least for some mountain snow, but an idea of a system to latch on to this is a pipe dream. The orientation of the trough on most of the models is very suppressive. Either way I think everyone should take this cold as a sign that we can get bouts of cold later in the winter that do have the orientation for a system to latch on and produce a widespread snow event.
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Got ya on that. Yeh for anyone thinking we'd sneak in an early season Winter weather event out of this was setting themselves up for disappointment. Now I think areas in the Eastern US should watch deeper into the pattern if it can stick around into Thanksgiving week.
 
The OPs have all trended shallow with the trough when it does eventually move east. The ensembles are a bit more deep with it, generally. I bet we will see the ensembles move toward the ops. The SE ridge will re-emerge and we will go back to persistence since August. Deep trough in the west, ridge in the east. This will prevail through end of December at least. I've lived this story so many times. We will see what happens once we are down hill of the current solar max.
 
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