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Wintry January 3rd-6th, 2018 Winter Storm The ARCC/Xtreme Weather Special

Storm5 said:
Cmc like
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That's almost freaking identical to the CMC, very nice look and close to a big dog.... this has legs imo
 
Stormsfury said:
Yeah just a bit of the difference up North also. GEM has the lowest heights east of ME while the GFS has them back north of Lake Superior..
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Which results in less shearing out of the wave allowing more consolidation and boom on the CMC... they are worlds apart at H5 but some support from the 12z Euro so there is that
 
If the Euro shows it again I think it's a go. But I wouldn't make another thread for it. I might actually change this thread to "Non Storm Thread". I'm being a little serious.

And yeah, no way the CMC verifies temperature wise.
 
GeorgiaGirl said:
If the Euro shows it again I think it's a go. But I wouldn't make another thread for it. I might actually change this thread to "Non Storm Thread". I'm being a little serious.

And yeah, no way the CMC verifies temperature wise.
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That would make no sense to do when we don't know how it will turn out yet...maybe once we get to Saturday morning that would be valid, though if you remember the storm a few weeks ago, it was a surprise as it was happening.
 
Stormlover said:
That would make no sense to do when we don't know how it will turn out yet...maybe once we get to Saturday morning that would be valid
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If you read my post in Banter, you'd get what I was talking about. It's to try to reverse jinx.

Heck, with the next one, maybe let me fire it up possibly, even if it's going to be a while from now. I was good juju once a while ago, maybe I can be again.
 
The gefs members that do have the second system are late bloomers this run
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Storm5 said:
I’m getting close to flushing it . I’ll glady treat the two of you to pizza and beer if we score next week
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You are more moody than a wo...um, nevermind...you flip and flop ...you were posting on facebook tonight how excited you were, now a little while later? lol, come on man, stop getting so carried away by a run of models. I wish we could look back at the attitude people had a few weeks ago before some got several inches or half a foot to a foot. Keep the faith!
 
I got my major storm seems like now we are in the traditional keep pushing the storm back a few days mood that ends up caring us thru winter with no fruit to bare
 
Counting this year, Birmingham has recorded measurable snow 16 times before Christmas since 1900...and never had any more the rest of the season. I just can't believe that will continue, but wow, what a record if so.
 
Stormlover said:
You are more moody than a wo...um, nevermind...you flip and flop ...you were posting on facebook tonight how excited you were, now a little while later? lol, come on man, stop getting so carried away by a run of models. I wish we could look back at the attitude people had a few weeks ago before some got several inches or half a foot to a foot. Keep the faith!
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Jesus i am excited about the next 7 days like I said . I’m sure as hell not excited about New Years anymore . A run??? Look at the trends over the last 5 gfs runs . Drier , drier , drier. Cmc has nothing for New Years . It’s not “ a run” it’s called a clear trend
 
Storm5 said:
Jesus i am excited about the next 7 days like I said . I’m sure as hell not excited about New Years anymore . A run??? Look at the trends over the last 5 gfs runs . Drier , drier , drier. Cmc has nothing for New Years . It’s not “ a run” it’s called a clear trend
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it seemed to change after this GFS and CMC sucking...anyway, the last Euro was an improvement..so ....it remains to be seen. Also, tomorrow the NAM and SREF will start being important. And if...the New Years Eve/New Years thing blows...it changes things so that down the road later next week, things may pan out. This is so complicated that there is no way the models will figure it out, maybe even close to the event/non-event
 
The SREF is an absolute horrible model that is being replaced. Once again it failed for Thurs/Fri threat. As always.

The clear idea is for the Northern Stream to dominate any and everything that gets in it's way. Sheared energy galore. Nothing can dive. Nothing can cause SW flow. Not saying that will happen for all of the threats here, but the New Years Eve & Day storm is dead.
 
Shawn said:
The SREF is an absolute horrible model that is being replaced. Once again it failed for Thurs/Fri threat. As always.

The clear idea is for the Northern Stream to dominate any and everything that gets in it's way. Sheared energy galore. Nothing can dive. Nothing can cause SW flow. Not saying that will happen for all of the threats here, but the New Years Eve & Day storm is dead.
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it may have failed there, but it has done very well in several winter events over the last 10 years I've followed around here. It's interesting to follow the trends it has every time it updates.
 
Stormlover said:
it may have failed there, but it has done very well in several winter events over the last 10 years I've followed around here. It's interesting to follow the trends it has every time it updates.
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Check this out, as it will be replacing it. I'm not quite sure it goes out the distance the current SREF does, but this will be useful! http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/href/
 
Shawn said:
The SREF is an absolute horrible model that is being replaced. Once again it failed for Thurs/Fri threat. As always.

The clear idea is for the Northern Stream to dominate any and everything that gets in it's way. Sheared energy galore. Nothing can dive. Nothing can cause SW flow. Not saying that will happen for all of the threats here, but the New Years Eve & Day storm is dead.
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The problem is and has been where the main low of the upper stream was and the orientation of the western ridge. Days ago when the new years threat was first mentioned, we were also tracking a southern stream wave. When it went kaput you needed a miracle to get anything out of it.

The second threat on the other hand is much different.
 
euro looking less impressive than 12Z for start of something..through 78, but not the drastic change of the gfs..close
 
we do have a system at least with euro...it has snow moving into north ala at midday sunday, though very light and not very amped up behind that
 
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