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Tropical Rafael

I would assume we want the majority of the potential rain away from the mountains while giving everyone else much needed rain at least?
 
Looks like the EPS largely kills it in the Gulf

It's gonna be very unfavorable near landfall for sure
 
Rafael is coming

Southwestern Caribbean Sea (AL97):
Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with
a broad area of low pressure over the southwestern Caribbean Sea.
Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical
depression is likely to form within the next couple of days while
moving generally northward to northwestward over the central and
western Caribbean Sea. Regardless of development, locally heavy
rains are possible over portions of the adjacent land areas of the
western Caribbean, including Jamaica, Hispaniola, and Cuba.
Interests in the western Caribbean Sea should monitor the progress
of this system as tropical storm watches or warnings could be
required later today or tonight for portions of the area. An Air
Force Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate this
system later today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.
 
Shaggy said:
Satellite looking better and better
Click to expand...

two_atl_2d0.png
 
202700 1357N 07643W 6253 04024 0002 +055 +023 059017 017 014 000 00

1000.2 mb
 
I could see it getting stronger than Expected..but even if it pulls a major Hurricane like Milton this will be a weakening storm right before landfall so impacts will less than warned. I would put the odds of a major around 51% but USA impacts likely tropical storm or hybrid impacts along the gulf.
 
141330 1441N 07624W 9240 00768 //// +175 //// 197012 016 056 072 01

Peak 10-second average surface wind speed in kt.

1730731336363.png

When it comes to quality control flags, what does the following refer to (also last number in line at top)?

1 T or TD questionable
 
weather bubba said:
This would be a drought buster for you. If it weakens enough that would be the best case scenario for some areas that badly need the rain. Please send some of it our way after you get enough.
Click to expand...

Not me... It's gonna be east of here most likely but we just had like 7 inches rain since Saturday lol

And supposed to be more Thursday Friday

But back to the storm there's a big question about how favorable the Gulf will be

FB_IMG_1730769521990.jpg
 
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