Tropical Rafael

[Henry2326]

Hurricane models say it will break stronger early on in the gulf.

 

[accu35]

Hurricane models say it will break stronger early on in the gulf.

View attachment 153852

Break stronger or get stronger in the gulf ?

 

[Snow_chaser]

View attachment 153849

That path would seem to be a big rain maker for NW Georgia. Local Mets are saying best chance of heavy rain is east and south of 85

 

[Henry2326]

That path would seem to be a big rain maker for NW Georgia. Local Mets are saying best chance of heavy rain is east and south of 85

This early, it probably depends on which model they are looking at. For a Sunday landfall, way to early to tell. Better handle on it about Thursday.

 

[Henry2326]

Break stronger or get stronger in the gulf ?

Stronger initially. How long it stays that way is questionable.

 

[Henry2326]

They just put a bubble around the whole thing.

 

[Avalanche]

They just put a bubble around the whole thing.

View attachment 153858

View attachment 153859

Of course it goes to New Orleans who’s still reeling from Katrina.

 

[Henry2326]

Of course it goes to New Orleans who’s still reeling from Katrina.

Huh????? That was 19 years ago.

 

[Henry2326]

That's tighter

 

[Avalanche]

Huh????? That was 19 years ago.

I frequent there .

They are still in recovery in some spots

 

[Jimmy Hypocracy]

Need this thing to push up into the states, get caught up in the stream and yanked east. My vacation depends on it!

 

[accu35]

That's tighter

View attachment 153863

Almost like Zeta track

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[accu35]

Hurricane

 

[Belle Lechat]

720 PM EST Tue Nov 05 2024

...RAFAEL INTENSIFIES INTO A HURRICANE...

Recent data from a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicates that
Rafael has become a hurricane with maximum sustained winds of 75
mph (120 km/h) with higher gusts. Data from the aircraft also
indicates that the minimum central pressure has fallen to 986 mb
(29.11 inches).

SUMMARY OF 720 PM EST...0020 UTC...INFORMATION
---------------------------------------------------
LOCATION...19.4N 79.9W
ABOUT 20 MI...35 KM SE OF LITTLE CAYMAN
ABOUT 305 MI...495 KM SSE OF HAVANA CUBA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...986 MB...29.11 INCHES

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

Min pressure: 985 mb

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

051200 2014N 08053W 6968 03019 9882 +106 +099 063067 069 088 006 03
051230 2013N 08052W 6950 03022 //// +092 //// 068066 070 072 042 01
051300 2012N 08051W 6993 02947 9780 +116 //// 070047 068 083 017 01
051330 2011N 08050W 6975 02961 9778 +144 +106 075032 038 080 009 00

Final number Quality control flags.
1 T or TD questionable
2 Flight-level winds questionable
3 SFMR parameter(s) questionable


Surface level winds 80 or 83 kts or higher





I don't know what the Quality control flag 1 refers to.

3 includes
Peak 10-second average surface wind speed occurring within the encoding interval from the Stepped Frequency Microwave Radiometer (SFMR), in kt. ///indicates missing value.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

Latest pass

074900 2025N 08111W 6976 02902 9711 +155 +116 040023 030 019 000 00

 

[Belle Lechat]

Min pressure: 970 mb

 

[Downeastnc]

Looking like he might make a run for Cat 3.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[Belle Lechat]

103600 2049N 08129W 6963 02860 9653 +147 +119 324007 014 021 002 00

 

[accu35]

Look like it keep shifting west

 

[Belle Lechat]

...RAFAEL CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN... ...EXPECTED TO BE NEAR MAJOR HURRICANE INTENSITY AT LANDFALL IN WESTERN CUBA...

7:00 AM EST Wed Nov 6 Location: 21.0°N 81.6°W Moving: NW at 14 mph Min pressure: 964 mb Max sustained: 100 mph

 

[Belle Lechat]

40 mph in 24 h.

 

[Belle Lechat]

Only one tracking to the US.

 

[Belle Lechat]

 

[accu35]

Wow!! We go from a northern gulf coast landfall to Mexico in a few hours