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Tropical Oscar

Icon came in further north by a good bit at 18z but still appears set to male the handoff to the high pressure.

The seasonal trend is for dominate high-pressure over the US and western Atl. No reason for me to doubt the hand off at his time.
 
Icon came in further north by a good bit at 18z but still appears set to male the handoff to the high pressure.

The seasonal trend is for dominate high-pressure over the US and western Atl. No reason for me to doubt the hand off at his time.
GFS has 94L

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0Z UKMET: moving WSW underneath a deep high toward E Cuba:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 36.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.10.2024 0 17.3N 36.3W 1013 24
1200UTC 14.10.2024 12 17.2N 38.4W 1014 23
0000UTC 15.10.2024 24 16.7N 40.3W 1012 23
1200UTC 15.10.2024 36 16.4N 42.4W 1012 23
0000UTC 16.10.2024 48 16.6N 45.2W 1011 24
1200UTC 16.10.2024 60 16.8N 48.3W 1012 26
0000UTC 17.10.2024 72 17.7N 51.8W 1011 29
1200UTC 17.10.2024 84 18.6N 56.0W 1011 30
0000UTC 18.10.2024 96 19.9N 59.3W 1011 29
1200UTC 18.10.2024 108 21.4N 62.4W 1012 27
0000UTC 19.10.2024 120 22.3N 65.3W 1012 28
1200UTC 19.10.2024 132 22.5N 67.8W 1011 27
0000UTC 20.10.2024 144 22.2N 70.1W 1010 29
1200UTC 20.10.2024 156 21.4N 72.0W 1009 29
0000UTC 21.10.2024 168 20.8N 73.5W 1007 25
 
12Z UKMET: further S than prior runs moving WSW through E Cuba into the NW Caribbean. This is similar to the 12Z Icon hit on E Cuba while moving SW, a climatological rarity. Cuba is one of the more favored land areas for a landfall this time of year but not in that manner:

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.0N 38.5W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 14.10.2024 0 17.0N 38.5W 1014 23
0000UTC 15.10.2024 12 16.3N 40.5W 1013 23
1200UTC 15.10.2024 24 15.9N 42.1W 1012 24
0000UTC 16.10.2024 36 15.9N 44.6W 1011 24
1200UTC 16.10.2024 48 16.1N 47.8W 1012 26
0000UTC 17.10.2024 60 16.5N 51.1W 1011 27
1200UTC 17.10.2024 72 17.2N 55.1W 1012 28
0000UTC 18.10.2024 84 17.8N 58.6W 1011 26
1200UTC 18.10.2024 96 19.1N 61.6W 1011 27
0000UTC 19.10.2024 108 19.9N 64.7W 1010 28
1200UTC 19.10.2024 120 20.4N 67.9W 1009 30
0000UTC 20.10.2024 132 20.8N 71.1W 1007 31
1200UTC 20.10.2024 144 20.7N 74.0W 1006 31
0000UTC 21.10.2024 156 20.6N 75.9W 1005 31
1200UTC 21.10.2024 168 19.6N 78.1W 1005 28
 
Last edited:
12Z UKMET text still has TCG/STCG for the initially baroclinic low off the E coast. Not likely to bother any land regardless:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 35.0N 70.9W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 17.10.2024 48 36.1N 70.0W 1003 45
0000UTC 18.10.2024 60 38.1N 68.7W 994 48
1200UTC 18.10.2024 72 37.8N 66.4W 1000 46
0000UTC 19.10.2024 84 35.8N 63.3W 1008 38
1200UTC 19.10.2024 96 33.3N 61.9W 1013 31
0000UTC 20.10.2024 108 CEASED TRACKING
 
two_atl_7d0 (3).png

1. Central Tropical Atlantic (AL94):
An area of low pressure located over the central tropical Atlantic
is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. This system is
forecast to move generally westward, and environmental conditions
appear marginally conducive for gradual development by the middle
to latter part of this week. A tropical depression could form as
the system begins moving west-northwestward and approaches or moves
near the Leeward Islands late this week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent
 
two_atl_7d0 (4).png

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 AM EDT Thu Oct 17 2024

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. East of the Leeward Islands (AL94):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure
located several hundred miles east of the Leeward Islands remain
disorganized. Environmental conditions appear only marginally
conducive for slow development as the disturbance moves quickly
westward to west-northwestward around 20 mph, passing near the
Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico on Friday, then near the Greater
Antilles over the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.

2. Western Caribbean Sea:
Showers and thunderstorms over the southwestern Caribbean Sea are
associated with a broad area of low pressure. Some gradual
development is possible over the next couple of days if the system
stays over water while it moves slowly northwestward toward Central
America. Regardless of development, locally heavy rainfall is
possible across portions of Central America and southern Mexico
late this week and into the weekend.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
 
1. Near the Southeastern Bahamas (AL94):
Updated: Satellite data indicate that the low pressure system
located less than 100 miles east of the Turks and Caicos Islands has
developed a well-defined center and continues to produce a
concentrated area of showers and thunderstorms. If the current
trends continue, advisories on a tropical depression or tropical
storm will likely be issued later this morning. Interests in the
Turks and Caicos Islands, the southeastern Bahamas, and eastern
Cuba should closely monitor this system as tropical storm warnings
could be required later this morning.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

two_atl_7d0 (5).png
 
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