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Tropical Oscar

GaWx said:
0Z UKMET: moving WSW underneath a deep high toward E Cuba:
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 94L ANALYSED POSITION : 17.3N 36.3W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL942024

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 14.10.2024 0 17.3N 36.3W 1013 24
1200UTC 14.10.2024 12 17.2N 38.4W 1014 23
0000UTC 15.10.2024 24 16.7N 40.3W 1012 23
1200UTC 15.10.2024 36 16.4N 42.4W 1012 23
0000UTC 16.10.2024 48 16.6N 45.2W 1011 24
1200UTC 16.10.2024 60 16.8N 48.3W 1012 26
0000UTC 17.10.2024 72 17.7N 51.8W 1011 29
1200UTC 17.10.2024 84 18.6N 56.0W 1011 30
0000UTC 18.10.2024 96 19.9N 59.3W 1011 29
1200UTC 18.10.2024 108 21.4N 62.4W 1012 27
0000UTC 19.10.2024 120 22.3N 65.3W 1012 28
1200UTC 19.10.2024 132 22.5N 67.8W 1011 27
0000UTC 20.10.2024 144 22.2N 70.1W 1010 29
1200UTC 20.10.2024 156 21.4N 72.0W 1009 29
0000UTC 21.10.2024 168 20.8N 73.5W 1007 25
Click to expand...

As far back as the 0Z Oct 14th (Sunday evening) UKMET run per what I’m quoting above, that model did pretty well on the track (not strength). It had Oscar at 22.2N, 70.1W and moving WSW as of 8PM EDT this evening vs actual near 21.3N, 71.6W, moving W. So, it missed it by only a little over 100 miles to the ENE on that run.

Also, the Icon as far back as the 0Z 10/13 run didn’t do all that bad even though it wasn’t far enough west as this is as of 8AM EDT tomorrow:
IMG_0505.png
 
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