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Severe 2024 Severe Discussion

We have cutter after cutter showing up on the Euro and GFS. It's going to be rocking in TX/LA/MS and most of AL. CAD may limit potential in GA/SC/NC but could play havoc with storms riding the boundary. First up is next Tuesday. Then looking at the 12th/13th and then again on the 18th/19th. Each round should decrease the amount of cold air damming and bring more warm, unstable air in to the southern states. For example, GFS is showning 850mb temps in the 15 to 20 Celsius range over TX/LA/MS ahead of the 18th cutter.
 
weatherfide said:
We have cutter after cutter showing up on the Euro and GFS. It's going to be rocking in TX/LA/MS and most of AL. CAD may limit potential in GA/SC/NC but could play havoc with storms riding the boundary. First up is next Tuesday. Then looking at the 12th/13th and then again on the 18th/19th. Each round should decrease the amount of cold air damming and bring more warm, unstable air in to the southern states. For example, GFS is showning 850mb temps in the 15 to 20 Celsius range over TX/LA/MS ahead of the 18th cutter.
Click to expand...
The Tuesday storm will bear watching close for severe weather. The GFS is slowly bringing the warm air farther into the CAD area as we get closer. Instability may be limited for sure, but you cannot really ask for better dynamics. The SPC is already mentioning strong tors for Tuesday.
 
NWS Atlanta raising alerts to second system projected to pass through Friday:

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

The long term forecast begins with chilly temperatures (morning lows
in the upper 20s to 30s) as the cold front exits the region. The
cold airmass will result in high temperatures in the 40s and low 50s
on Wednesday. The airmass will also be a good bit drier
characterized by cooler dewpoints in the upper 20s and 30s. This
period of calm weather will last through Thursday, but high
temperatures will warm Thursday back into the 50s. Temperatures will
continue to warm through Friday into the mid to upper 60s for areas
south of I-20. This is ahead of the next storm system that will
bring another potential for a round of severe weather to the
forecast area. A potent negatively tilted shortwave will dig in from
the central Plains Friday with a surface low developing near the
ArkLaTex.
.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday morning through next Sunday)
Issued at 321 PM EST Mon Jan 8 2024

The long term forecast begins with chilly temperatures (morning lows
in the upper 20s to 30s) as the cold front exits the region. The
cold airmass will result in high temperatures in the 40s and low 50s
on Wednesday. The airmass will also be a good bit drier
characterized by cooler dewpoints in the upper 20s and 30s. This
period of calm weather will last through Thursday, but high
temperatures will warm Thursday back into the 50s. Temperatures will
continue to warm through Friday into the mid to upper 60s for areas
south of I-20. This is ahead of the next storm system that will
bring another potential for a round of severe weather to the
forecast area. A potent negatively tilted shortwave will dig in from
the central Plains Friday with a surface low developing near the
ArkLaTex. This system appears to have a more favorable thermodynamic
profile with warm surface and dewpoint temperatures and MUCAPE
between 600-800 J/kg. The kinematics of the system also look
favorable for strong to severe storms with bulk shear up to 70+kt
and 0-3km SRH over 700+m2/s2. It`s a little too soon to be diving
into the exact details, but it does appear there is a strong signal
that this system will bring another round of severe weather to the
forecast area Friday afternoon. Furthermore, this system will bring
additional rainfall will be brought to the area with amounts between
0.5-1.0" inches. High pressure returns to the area at the end of the
period with dry weather forecast through Sunday evening.

KAL

&&


The kinematics of the system also look
favorable for strong to severe storms with bulk shear up to 70+kt
and 0-3km SRH over 700+m2/s2. It`s a little too soon to be diving
into the exact details, but it does appear there is a strong signal
that this system will bring another round of severe weather to the
forecast area Friday afternoon. Furthermore, this system will bring
additional rainfall will be brought to the area with amounts between
0.5-1.0" inches. High pressure returns to the area at the end of the
period with dry weather forecast through Sunday evening.

KAL

&&
 
Climate Prediction Center calling for an ENSO Neutral phase moving into April - June time frame. Anyone have thoughts on how this may play into this upcoming Severe Weather Season?
 
NWMSGuy said:
Anyone have additional thoughts on the potential Severe Weather for next week?
Click to expand...
My early thoughts here are the best corridor of severe will be east TX/ok, ark, Missouri boot heel, northern TN, KY where we typically see the higher end severe weather as the trough rides the western flank of the SER. Then that all combines into a qlcs across most of the region.
 
Wonder how the coming ENSO neutral phase will add to the possibility of Severe Weather as we head into April-May?
 
That look if it persists toward the end of the Euro run has caused significant problems in the past. Getting it closer than day seven is the problem.
 
Early next week has my attention for severe storms. Already an enhanced risk including OKC for Monday.21E30449-5D06-45CA-BE82-22C792973F53.png
 
Tommorows setup looks mid at best, behind the strat rain kinematics are high end, but dry punch aloft and a cap at 700mb looks to big limiting factor
 
Slight risk right on my backdoor and now a Watch issued for southern Va right along the Va/NC border. Let's see if they can hold together this evening as they back in
 
Intense tornadoes are bad, yes? 🥴🥴D720F0C3-8AC6-42A3-983D-D08B69455E0D.png
 
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