GFS not as cold out in front of it as 0z run. 1040 mb high coming down at 180. Let's see where it goes.
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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again
- Thread starter GaWx
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- inspired by mack
GFS not as cold out in front of it as 0z run. 1040 mb high coming down at 180. Let's see where it goes.
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DadOfJax
Member
No blocking...there goes the arctic.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
It's all due to there being a weaker ridge out west and it not staying that long.
Storm5
Member
Accor
theres blocking the ridge out west is way west of previous runs
Storm5
Member
Fwiw CMC no go for anything wintry Christmas day
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
That storm that we saw on 0z is there I believe but it looks like a warm cutter this time.
Storm5
Member
Another run another solution thank god we get another one in a few hours
WeatherWatch
Member
Wedge city, 1048mb over southeastern Canada/ easterly winds. Icy!
Storm5
Member
According to this run Webber will miss the NC Christmas Day snow
I fully expect 18z happy hour unloads a Christmas miracle
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ATLwxfan
Member
I get the sense the mighty SER plans a triumphant return.
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Lol we may go from 0z classic SE winter storm look to severe weather to end the year.
Storm5
Member
I’m more interested in the overall pattern next week . There is no consistency at all. Can’t wait to see the gefs
Yeah in 24 hrs GFS gone from Mexico to northern plains
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Trying to remember if this is what happened in 2010? More digging as we got closer I think.I know models been all over the place but if that digs just a little more Christmas could get interesting.... last 4 GFS runs
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I can attest to that... in fact late bloomer here, I had 11"
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
What happened in 2010 was there was a phase or no phase situation involved. If a phase happened there was going to be a good winter storm but if not it was going to just be a minor nuisance.
The phase happened.
The phase happened.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Well, it's funny that the GFS keeps skipping over me each run with the snow either to my NW or SE, but never directly over me. At least I'm not in the bullseye.
True but it had to dig more for the phase right?
Storm5
Member
Ridge is just a little too far west this run . Let’s see how the ensembles look . Good news is the next week system is 8-10 days out so we know this run won’t verify
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pcbjr
Member
I'm pulling for Phil over my selfish desires...Hope you get dumped on, Phil
If it were to happen, great. However, should it, my sincerest hope would be that Larry gets more than his share; he more than anyone in the deep SE deserves a Christmas bonus ...
Wonder if reason why it's not as cold ahead of the 27-29 storm is due to the -epo not bending back towards Greenland like 0z run. That looked to help force the PV lobe into Northern Minnesota and a much colder press with stronger artic high than the glacing cold the 12 GFS did as it stays north of great lakes and retrogrades E/NE. Another run and another solution though.
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B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Yes, I think the storm showed up about a week out, then disappeared, then came back about 3 days ahead of time and trended NW.
whatalife
Moderator
Yeah in 24 hrs GFS gone from Mexico to northern plains
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It looks pretty consistent to me. Consistent in going the wrong direction
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GeorgiaGirl
Member
Yeah I hope this run is trash. The pacific wakes up in the end and so we never really get cold outside of briefly.
whatalife
Moderator
No need to toss. Time to live with the fact we live in the SE
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Brent
Member
If this cold doesnt even verify after all this hype can we just move on to spring? Seriously
Why does the gfs even exist
Why does the gfs even exist
NWMSGuy
Member
Could be completely wrong about this but GFS was constantly showing a Storm for Texas northeastward for what seemed for forever over Christmas. Closer we got it started to lose it. So maybe with the GFS not showing much in the way of winter weather now is a good thing. lol
Is there a reason why the GFS runs 4 times a day and the Euro only runs 2 times ? Maybe 4 times is too many ?
I think the Christmas Day shot is our chance this round. We need to get a more it to dig and get more SW flow aloft to get some sort of overrunning setup.
Brent
Member
Whats bad though is the euro was warmer anyway
Storm5
Member
HM is always the voice of reason “ attempt to resolve it “ that’s an understatement
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Can't let you toss this one Larry it had snow imby Christmas day
Besides I think GEFS and Euro save usSent from my SM-G920V using Tapatalk
WeatherWatch
Member
To refresh your memory, and for comparison, this is an overview of the 2010 Christmas storm. http://www.weather.gov/media/gsp/localdat/cases/2010/Event_Review_Christmas_2010_Snow.pdf
tennessee storm
Member
yep big red flag there....
500mb looks a lot better for the potential "after Christmas event"