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Pattern December, Make analogs relevant again

accu35 said:
Pattern looks great towards Christmas. Plenty of cold and plenty of potential. More exciting times ahead. For those who didn't get there snow its coming, hang in there.
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Absolutely agree on the potential. The GEFS/EPS have been for a few days insisting that the NC US gets quite cold starting around 12/22 and the cold expands from there with a restrengthening Alaskan ridge and -AO per models. This is quite evident in the latest GEFS/EPS, which continue to have the coldest anomalies on the planet in much of Canada and then shifting into the N US late month. Note that this timeframe has not at all been slipping since I first mentioned it a few days ago.
 
SD said:
The eps established optimism for the pattern leading into Christmas

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And the GEFS!? Things looking good as we roll forward!
 
Storm5 said:
Waiting for a SE winter storm pattern will leave you with a broken heart. We just have to take our chances when we get them . I'm still on the fense about the whole snow cover to the North argument. Obviously snow cover to the north helps keep cold shots from moderating too much but at the same time there are plenty of examples of us scoring without it like yesterday . As for the NAO, I never hold out hope that we will ever have a sustained blocking period. Give me a good Pacific pattern with a nice western ridge and I'll roll the dice

I'm with you I dont see anything disastrous in the LR.
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I sort of think of snowstorms in the SE like threading a needle. Snow cover to the north makes the eye of the needle a little bigger. Not having it doesn't make the eye vanish, but it's certainly an asset. That's kind of the way I think of it.
 
GaWx said:
Absolutely agree on the potential. The GEFS/EPS have been for a few days insisting that the NC US gets quite cold starting around 12/22 and the cold expands from there with a restrengthening Alaskan ridge and -AO per models. This is quite evident in the latest GEFS/EPS, which continue to have the coldest anomalies on the planet in much of Canada and then shifting into the N US late month. Note that this timeframe has not at all been slipping since I first mentioned it a few days ago.
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Also Larry, if we get a setup like this later in the month or next, then the cold would be alot better for many more of our posters. Wouldn't it be nice to get another winterstorm of some sort this month?
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
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Welcome! Regarding your point #5, I agree to a certain extent because it is now a weak Niña that appears to have peaked or nearly so and not stronger (hello Feb 1895 and Feb 1899). But also, if someone says something is "likely to happen" and predicts something based on that as opposed to saying something "is going to happen", that's quite reasonable. I currently think Feb is likely to be warmer than normal per analogs and I thus predicted that here but I've yet to say "Feb is going to be warmer than normal". Forecasting is one thing. Assuming anything close to certainty is totally different and is never advised in long range forecasting.
 
GaWx said:
Welcome! Regarding your point #5, I agree to a certain extent because it is now a weak Niña that appears to have peaked or nearly so and not stronger (hello Feb 1895 and Feb 1899). But also, if someone says something is "likely to happen" and predicts something based on that as opposed to saying something "is going to happen", that's quite reasonable. I currently think Feb is likely to be warmer than normal per analogs and I thus predicted that here but I've yet to say "Feb is going to be warmer than normal". Forecasting is one thing. Assuming anything close to certainty is totally different and is never advised in long range forecasting.
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Larry, 100%, but it also goes to mid-range and perhaps if not oftentimes even tomorrow's forecast; it's all a best guess based on data but it's never going to be 100% ('least not in Gainesville ... :confused:)
 
Batman said:
Hello everyone! Was on the American Forum and other forums before that. Do little posting. More following and listening to those that are more knowledgeable than me. I found this forum a few weeks ago. Glad I did! Wanted to weigh in on the posts I saw yesterday about torching around Christmas and winter ending in January because it is a Nina winter.
1.) It amazes me how some folks emotions and opinions swing on each model run
2.) The GEFS map from yesterday showing a SE ridge was a very weird look. It also had a trough east of Hawaii. Those 2 things usually don't happen together and are reason to question the look.
3.) Today looks much better and overall I believe there is more evidence to support a general eastern trough/western ridge pattern overall into early January.
4.) Anything beyond a few days should not be considered a slam dunk in either extreme
5.) To say something is going to or is likely to happen because this is a Nina winter is dangerous and likely to be very wrong. This is a weak Nina and weak Nina winters can do many things and are very different from a strong or even a mod. Nina winters
6.) This past storm is just another reason why it is fun to follow winter storms, but near impossible to have any idea what is going to happen more than a few hours before it happens with winter storms in the deep south Kirk Mellish and James Spann are probably the 2 most respected mets in Birmingham and Atlanta. They both missed it by a mile from close range.
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Welcome !
 
GaWx said:
Welcome! Regarding your point #5, I agree to a certain extent because it is now a weak Niña that appears to have peaked or nearly so and not stronger (hello Feb 1895 and Feb 1899). But also, if someone says something is "likely to happen" and predicts something based on that as opposed to saying something "is going to happen", that's quite reasonable. I currently think Feb is likely to be warmer than normal per analogs and I thus predicted that here but I've yet to say "Feb is going to be warmer than normal". Forecasting is one thing. Assuming anything close to certainty is totally different and is never advised in long range forecasting.
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Hi Larry. Got a question. Do you think we will achieve an official SSW this winter? We have a -qbo descending so I wasn't sure. Also, I know this person is outlandish for saying this, but a guy said at another weather forum that he sees a potential major arctic outbreak around Christmas. He said a S shaped pattern which signifies a McFarland signature. Do you agree with him?:confused:
 
Hamburgerman7070 said:
Hi Larry. Got a question. Do you think we will achieve an official SSW this winter? We have a -qbo descending so I wasn't sure. Also, I know this person is outlandish for saying this, but a guy said at another weather forum that he sees a potential major arctic outbreak around Christmas. He said a S shaped pattern which signifies a McFarland signature. Do you agree with him?:confused:
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I won't even try to predict whether or not we'll have a SSW and am not sure how crucial it even is as regards how cold DJF is in the SE. However, yes, my understanding is that this is more possible with the current descending -QBO. I may research this some more.

Regarding your 2nd Q, I don't know what a McFarland sig is but I do know that the major ensembles have for several days of runs shown the potential of a strong Arctic outbreak near Christmas. These models show a -EPO to bring in some very cold air at least into the N US but not a solid +PNA just yet to make it likely for a plunge all the way to, say, Phil, weatherdawg, and myself, who all need a solid +PNA more than any other regular posters though an accompanying +PNA would help all of the SE. You being in AR means a +PNA wouldn't be as important as it is for most in the SE. Regardless, analogs combined with the models tell me cold will likely return to the SE last week of Dec and possibly in a big way.
 
Hamburgerman7070 said:
Hi Larry. Got a question. Do you think we will achieve an official SSW this winter? We have a -qbo descending so I wasn't sure. Also, I know this person is outlandish for saying this, but a guy said at another weather forum that he sees a potential major arctic outbreak around Christmas. He said a S shaped pattern which signifies a McFarland signature. Do you agree with him?:confused:
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Welcome !!! Alright more Arkansas people !! Can't wait to here your reports this winter
 
Storm5 said:
I'm with you there. This one has come and gone . Time to look forward and hunt the next
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image.jpg
 
Hamburgerman7070 said:
Hi Larry. Got a question. Do you think we will achieve an official SSW this winter? We have a -qbo descending so I wasn't sure. Also, I know this person is outlandish for saying this, but a guy said at another weather forum that he sees a potential major arctic outbreak around Christmas. He said a S shaped pattern which signifies a McFarland signature. Do you agree with him?:confused:
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Welcome to southernwx!
 
The McFarland signature is supposedly like notorious for Texas winter storms, I had never heard of it til I moved out here

Media in Dallas has written articles about it when there's been previous winter storms

A backwards S from Alaska down deep into California
 
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After I get about 10 hours of sleep tonight I will also be ready to track the next one. Watching the models indeed is one of the best part of the storms. Something about them flip flopping and living on the edge of glory or doom is exciting lol. But a man does need some sleep, and after staying up for the Euro for about 6 days straight I’m gonna need some sleep tonight lol!
 
I've gotten a couple of hard naps in past couple of days between all the snow being dumped bout time to ramp up for more.... come on winter can you do better then Benji
 
BHS1975 said:
Around winter solstice is the best time to get a storm in the south because of the low sun angle.


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No it's not. We get many more storms in January after the angle has started back up. That's overrated big time.
 
Its been fun and kinda cool to track and see the snow pics from down south but hopefully the rest of us can cash in at some point this winter. It took until March last year before we got any snow so I'm not giving up until anytime soon regardless what the models do or don't show.
 
Stormlover said:
No it's not. We get many more storms in January after the angle has started back up. That's overrated big time.
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Yeah the timing of snowstorm parts of the South got yesteday has the same angle of the sun as most of January. Cold air source from the north is deeper in January howevef than it is in December due to the lag effect.

Ukie looks interesting on Day 6 with the positioning of the low. Someone on the other forum posted this:

db2r7xt.png
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah the timing of snowstorm parts of the South got yesteday has the same angle of the sun as most of January. Cold air source from the north is deeper in January howevef than it is in December due to the lag effect.

Ukie looks interesting on Day 6 with the positioning of the low. Someone on the other forum posted this:

db2r7xt.png
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Too close to the coast for SC. :( Again.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
Yeah the timing of snowstorm parts of the South got yesteday has the same angle of the sun as most of January. Cold air source from the north is deeper in January howevef than it is in December due to the lag effect.

Ukie looks interesting on Day 6 with the positioning of the low. Someone on the other forum posted this:

db2r7xt.png
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gem_mslp_pcpn_frzn_us_22.png
CMC has somewhat of something, same time frame
 
Stormlover said:
No it's not. We get many more storms in January after the angle has started back up. That's overrated big time.
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I didn’t say we get more and around the solstice includes early January. If we get anything next weekend the low sun angle will slow melting and keep temps lower.


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BHS1975 said:
I didn’t say we get more and around the solstice includes early January. If we get anything next weekend the low sun angle will slow melting and keep temps lower.


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The sun angle now and at the solstice isn't very signficant. For example, using this site, Atlanta's peak sun angle on December 9th was 33.4 degrees. On December 21st, it's 32.8 degrees. To put into context, if say Atlanta got a snowstom on February 16th, peak sun angle would be 44.1 degrees.
 
LovingGulfLows said:
The sun angle now and at the solstice isn't very signficant. For example, using this site, Atlanta's peak sun angle on December 9th was 33.4 degrees. On December 21st, it's 32.8 degrees. To put into context, if say Atlanta got a snowstom on February 16th, peak sun angle would be 44.1 degrees.
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And I've seen many more very cold snowstorms in mid February than at any time in December.
 
Storm5 said:
Next weekend is somewhat interesting given the all globals have a similar look. I think we would all take the 00z ukmet look this far out and run like all hell
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Ukmet is to close to the coast for my area and yes I agree with you that’s an interesting look.


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6z GFS has some noise around 17-19th, but it's not nearly cold enough, rain in PA! :(
We toss!
 
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