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Ukraine

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Dang... Lindsey Graham doubling down on his comments that he said Putin should be gone but added that Putin should be gone tonight...
 
The stuff Im reading about food shortages coming hard 6 months down road are worrisome. Fertilizer caveat is main problem. Cost, farmers cant plant knowing theyll be -70% profit margin.
Heres more to think about.

Russia and Ukraine together produce nearly a quarter of the world's wheat, feeding billions of people in the form of bread, pasta and packaged foods. The countries are also key suppliers of barley, sunflower seed oil and corn, among other products.

So if exports from those two warring nations are reduced or completely cut off, how are we possibly going to replace that output?

Does anyone have an answer for that?

Collectively, Russia and Ukraine usually account for "29 percent of all wheat exports and 75 percent of global exports of sunflower oil"...

Ukraine is the world's fourth-largest exporter of both corn and wheat. It is also the world's largest exporter of sunflower seed oil, an important component of the world's vegetable oil supply. Together, Russia and Ukraine supply 29 percent of all wheat exports and 75 percent of global exports of sunflower oil, said Kelly Goughary, senior research analyst Gro-Intelligence, an agriculture data platform.

Theres some scary forecasting, not hyperbole, conspiracy yada yada. Prepare a little now each week is good advice.
 
NCSNOW said:
The stuff Im reading about food shortages coming hard 6 months down road are worrisome. Fertilizer caveat is main problem. Cost, farmers cant plant knowing theyll be -70% profit margin.
Heres more to think about.

Russia and Ukraine together produce nearly a quarter of the world's wheat, feeding billions of people in the form of bread, pasta and packaged foods. The countries are also key suppliers of barley, sunflower seed oil and corn, among other products.

So if exports from those two warring nations are reduced or completely cut off, how are we possibly going to replace that output?

Does anyone have an answer for that?

Collectively, Russia and Ukraine usually account for "29 percent of all wheat exports and 75 percent of global exports of sunflower oil"...

Ukraine is the world's fourth-largest exporter of both corn and wheat. It is also the world's largest exporter of sunflower seed oil, an important component of the world's vegetable oil supply. Together, Russia and Ukraine supply 29 percent of all wheat exports and 75 percent of global exports of sunflower oil, said Kelly Goughary, senior research analyst Gro-Intelligence, an agriculture data platform.

Theres some scary forecasting, not hyperbole, conspiracy yada yada. Prepare a little now each week is good advice.
Click to expand...

Worlds largest phosphate mine is 40 miles east of me.....we get like 12% of our phosphate from Russia. The US has a huge surplus of wheat, corn etc....and we have the capacity to grow a lot more than we do since we run surpluses.....in fact its already going to happen. The US could grow enough food to feed the world if we have too, it would also drive prices up making US farmers bigger profits.

omaha.com

Russia's move on Ukraine could affect U.S. farmers, Nebraska ag experts say

Nebraska agriculture experts are closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine and its possible effects on commodity prices and production.
omaha.com omaha.com

A Russian invasion and blockade of Ukraine could jeopardize the latter country’s wheat exports, which account for 12% of the world’s total, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

To prevent supply chain issues, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack recently told the Associated Press, American farmers will boost wheat production in the event that a full Russian invasion of Ukraine chokes off agricultural exports from the global grains powerhouse.

“If something happens (in Ukraine) … it’s going to create some uncertainty and volatility,” said Jay Rempe, senior economist for Nebraska Farm Bureau.

With Ukraine also being a major corn exporter, one possible impact of a Russian invasion would be price spikes of the two commodities. Rempe acknowledged that could be beneficial to Nebraska farmers who produce those crops.
 
^ looks legit, you can see the MI-24 in the first couple frames before it gets lit up in close proximity to the missile launch. Appears to have had a good bit of fuel onboard too.

SU-34 shown below with tail number, introduced in 2014, similar role to US F-15, Russia had 131 in the fleet as of 12/2021.

85737C26-DA95-4715-A89B-8DB2B56A49ED.jpeg
 
I'd feel good about putin really losing when/if we can start to see some of these fighter pilots defecting and instead of dying over Ukraine seeking to land somewhere else. If that starts to happen putin is in bigger trouble with this war.
 
The US gonna broker a peace deal ????


ab407f426f843d05380b2496c447a49e.jpg



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Downeastnc said:
Worlds largest phosphate mine is 40 miles east of me.....we get like 12% of our phosphate from Russia. The US has a huge surplus of wheat, corn etc....and we have the capacity to grow a lot more than we do since we run surpluses.....in fact its already going to happen. The US could grow enough food to feed the world if we have too, it would also drive prices up making US farmers bigger profits.

omaha.com

Russia's move on Ukraine could affect U.S. farmers, Nebraska ag experts say

Nebraska agriculture experts are closely monitoring the situation in Ukraine and its possible effects on commodity prices and production.
omaha.com omaha.com

A Russian invasion and blockade of Ukraine could jeopardize the latter country’s wheat exports, which account for 12% of the world’s total, according to the U.S. Department of Agriculture.

To prevent supply chain issues, U.S. Secretary of Agriculture Tom Vilsack recently told the Associated Press, American farmers will boost wheat production in the event that a full Russian invasion of Ukraine chokes off agricultural exports from the global grains powerhouse.

“If something happens (in Ukraine) … it’s going to create some uncertainty and volatility,” said Jay Rempe, senior economist for Nebraska Farm Bureau.

With Ukraine also being a major corn exporter, one possible impact of a Russian invasion would be price spikes of the two commodities. Rempe acknowledged that could be beneficial to Nebraska farmers who produce those crops.
Click to expand...
Russia is one of the biggest exporters of the three major groups of fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium). Physical supply cuts could further inflate fertilizer prices.

The fertilizer prices is the pivot point that will or will not set off the food price hyperinflation. Takes nitrogen,pottasium in addition to phosphorous. A farmer isnt gonna plant a crop that yields $80 an acre , when it cost him $240 to fertilze. Now said farmer can scale back the fertilizer, say use half what he normally would, but hes still losing his rear end off. The only other option would be US Govt subsidising or the farmer saling his crop for more to make up the difference. The latter he has little control over.
Its planting season over the next 60 days across the fruited plain. Govt, needs to address this now. They wait till Fall its to late, as it will be spring 2023 before they can be proactive.
 
Current sitrep…



They are pontoon vehicles, used in water crossing. My guess is the wood is not for protection, but rather to assist vehicles in wet areas similar to as we see here with logging sites.
 
WeatherNC said:
Current sitrep…



They are pontoon vehicles, used in water crossing. My guess is the wood is not for protection, but rather to assist vehicles in wet areas similar to as we see here with logging sites.
Click to expand...


Your spot on about the primary use of those logs, though it does appear they may be dual purposing it lol....covering grills etc implies they are in fact using it for protection IMO.....
 
NCSNOW said:
Russia is one of the biggest exporters of the three major groups of fertilizers (nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium). Physical supply cuts could further inflate fertilizer prices.

The fertilizer prices is the pivot point that will or will not set off the food price hyperinflation. Takes nitrogen,pottasium in addition to phosphorous. A farmer isnt gonna plant a crop that yields $80 an acre , when it cost him $240 to fertilze. Now said farmer can scale back the fertilizer, say use half what he normally would, but hes still losing his rear end off. The only other option would be US Govt subsidising or the farmer saling his crop for more to make up the difference. The latter he has little control over.
Its planting season over the next 60 days across the fruited plain. Govt, needs to address this now. They wait till Fall its to late, as it will be spring 2023 before they can be proactive.
Click to expand...
I don't think people have a proper appreciation for the food price risk that we are facing. I'm not sure what western leadership's end goal is here, but if it is to maximize the pain felt by their constituents, then they are getting very close to achieving that goal.
 
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