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Wintry Valentines Weekend Potential ?

Eww marginal bl temps and timing is horrible

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FV3 just has so much more QPF then either NAM and we've seen the NAMs play catch up in the qpf dept before, yes I'm tracking and grasping.

I mean the FV3 is a solid 1-2" event N half of NC, no other game in town might as well watch it till the end
 
Even the models showing a relatively healthy band have temps in the mid 30's. That's not going to get it done if you want actual accumulation. Odds are you squeak out a dusting to maybe a half an inch that melts in 30 minutes. I just don't see this being anymore than something for people to enjoy watching snow fall one last time.
 
I think if you are writing this event off or not interested you are selling this one short but maybe I'm getting too excited from the rgem and nams. We almost have 2 shots here 1 with the anafrontal stuff and 1 with the trough itself. The rgem overlapped the 2 over Central nc on the last run
 
SD said:
I think if you are writing this event off or not interested you are selling this one short but maybe I'm getting too excited from the rgem and nams. We almost have 2 shots here 1 with the anafrontal stuff and 1 with the trough itself. The rgem overlapped the 2 over Central nc on the last run
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And we've seen these trailing upper waves produce before, just this year, it will probably come down to timing and location but definite potential for someone to hit the "sweet spot"
 
whatalife said:
How did the 12z RDPS look? Oh wait! Here it is…View attachment 113375
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I actually posted a trend GIF of it earlier and yes the 12Z didn't look as good as other models but it actually had more qpf. Problem is BL temps, which is a problem and concerning when the RGEM shows that but thanks for posting
 
metwannabe said:
I actually posted a trend GIF of it earlier and yes the 12Z didn't look as good as other models but it actually had more qpf. Problem is BL temps, which is a problem and concerning when the RGEM shows that but thanks for posting
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HAHA! Just having a little fun with you guys. I have no clue what the temps look like.
 
@Rain Cold special!

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And the RGEM with the NE NC/SE Va special, some will see snow fall and somebody going to get a car topper models just have to sort out the particulars with the upper wave and how/if it interacts at all with the slp
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Most realistic look IMO. Even with additional precip, the surface temps just aren’t going to support a ton of accumulation unless you can get additional precip after sunset. Just don’t see it being more than enjoying snow falling and that’s hit.
 
Models often overestimate BL temps in these situations with good precip. Provided there is good precip (a big if but models are hinting this might be the case now) and the upper and mid levels are below freezing, I’d expect a quick changeover to snow. If rates suck, though, that may not happen. Regardless, ratios will be awful, soil temps will be warm, and with temperatures near/above freezing at the surface even in the best case scenario and the snow likely to be happening during the daytime when the sun will cause melting, accumulations will be harder to come by than is typical. Hard to see this being a street sticker, more like a T-2” type event at best.
 
metwannabe said:
My goodness, western areas get hammered per HRRR and it get's a little more amped up each run. But can it be believed

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I’m not buying anything over 3 inches here in Roanoke, but certainly impressive.
 
Latest NWS totals. Unfortunately looks to have cut back slightly on amounts from early AM.

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And might as well include VA while we're at it.

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This is extremely minor, but noticed RNK has a small stretch of no accumulation at all near Danville, which doesn't 100% match with RAH's map.
 
YetAnotherRDUGuy said:
Latest NWS totals. Unfortunately looks to have cut back slightly on amounts from early AM.
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Obviously, they brought the souther edge northward and reduced totals slightly from the early morning update. However, the totals for extreme north along the state line went up. Though insignificant, Eden went from 0.6” to 0.9” for example. I’m on the Guilford/Rockingham line. I’m expecting a dusting to 0.5”
 
Ward Cleaver said:
Obviously, they brought the souther edge northward and reduced totals slightly from the early morning update. However, the totals for extreme north along the state line went up. Though insignificant, Eden went from 0.6” to 0.9” for example. I’m on the Guilford/Rockingham line. I’m expecting a dusting to 0.5”
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Good catch. I had only noticed the lesser overall extent as you mentioned and didn't think to check for higher totals up N and W.
 
Ward Cleaver said:
Obviously, they brought the souther edge northward and reduced totals slightly from the early morning update. However, the totals for extreme north along the state line went up. Though insignificant, Eden went from 0.6” to 0.9” for example. I’m on the Guilford/Rockingham line. I’m expecting a dusting to 0.5”
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Seems reasonable, only caveat I guess could be if the upper wave slows down a tick and snow can fall after sunset, might have a better chance of light accumulations. However, our trends are usually earlier arrival precip so midday snow melts before sunset most likely lol
 
HRRR has close to 2" even in by backyard. Not buying that for a second. Precip will likely arrive before model guidance by a few hours which favors western areas and the upstate but lets be honest about this. Max precip will probably be around 0.25"-0.3" within the band and ratios will be likely be somewhere around 5:1. Couple that with the fact that it will be entirely rate driven as the mid levels and surface are way above freezing and you'll waste a good bit of precip within the dynamic cooling process. Surface temps also don't look to go below freezing outside of the mountains and will likely be in the mid 30's even if you can get it to switch to snow. Nothing about this screams accumulating snow south of the NC/VA line or outside of the mountains and immediate western foothills. And even there a dusting to 1" is likely going to be the max and that maybe generous given nothing really supports accumulating snowfall. Best bet for those east is overperforming with precip and hoping some falls after dark.
 
iGRXY said:
HRRR has close to 2" even in by backyard. Not buying that for a second. Precip will likely arrive before model guidance by a few hours which favors western areas and the upstate but lets be honest about this. Max precip will probably be around 0.25"-0.3" within the band and ratios will be likely be somewhere around 5:1. Couple that with the fact that it will be entirely rate driven as the mid levels and surface are way above freezing and you'll waste a good bit of precip within the dynamic cooling process. Surface temps also don't look to go below freezing outside of the mountains and will likely be in the mid 30's even if you can get it to switch to snow. Nothing about this screams accumulating snow south of the NC/VA line or outside of the mountains and immediate western foothills. And even there a dusting to 1" is likely going to be the max and that maybe generous given nothing really supports accumulating snowfall. Best bet for those east is overperforming with precip and hoping some falls after dark.
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honey no offense but do you anything about my wx or the microclimates of the northern foothills
 
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