Hypsometric
Member
If only we could believe it....
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Wintry Valentines Weekend Potential ?
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
18z GFS looking more interesting with the overnight clipper into Monday morning
whatalife
Moderator
Was wondering why no one was talking about the RDPS...
I keep forgetting the year (2008-2012) surprise Valentine’s Day snow for NC Piedmont that started as rain over upstate SC and thumped snow after sunset over the Piedmont triad. So there’s always that chance even last minute you get 5”+ without any warnings in place
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
This type of thing just doesn’t happen anymore with models being good
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Gonna say it. RAP is a weenie model, always puts out more precipitation than reality.
Flotown
Member
I'm sooo confused
Patented RainCold and SD snow hole. ?
hi res Fv3 lookin pretty good
HSVweather
Member
Surface looks too warm in north Alabama looking at the different models while the precip is falling. Hoping for a surprise!
We might get to 20 pages with this look ! 
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Very skeptical of the 60 hour FV3. Hard to bet against euro and RGEM IMO
whatalife
Moderator
Ummm…Maybe not…The RDPS says otherwise…
RGEM wasn’t exactly great with the ULT band last setup, the Fv3 hi res is pretty good itself, interesting model battle
RGEM still has an extensive area of precip moving through and even gives wake county a nice snow band .. also aligns with Fv3 and NAMs just less cold .. Gfs also agrees and hot off the presses ICON also in agreement of this area of precip associated with the upper level disturbance .. clear trends for at least Novelty stuff around here Sunday!
Yeah if you don’t live in NC though this one’s not for you. NC folks rejoice for this could be our last flakes of the season!
GFS isn’t running but the gefs looks better, probably meaning the OP is better 
@metwannabe dont look at member 18 
few pics of the clipper snow in Wisconsin this evening -
and contrary to popular belief...despite far more experience driving in wintry conditions vs the South, people up here still manage to drive their cars into ditches and guardrails with little more than an inch or two of snow. ?
and contrary to popular belief...despite far more experience driving in wintry conditions vs the South, people up here still manage to drive their cars into ditches and guardrails with little more than an inch or two of snow. ?
That’ll do donkey .. that’ll do 
Hey man you think something is wrong with this run, it's raining on me and snowing on you! toss it.......... ?
EDIT: Just j/k around. I hope you get dumped on with what could be the grand finale
There was improvement on the 6z RGEM, definitely more precip with the upper wave, clear trend with that. Still minor event of course
HurricaneSolomon
Member
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I was going to say other models seem to come into agreement that something wintry could definitely happen on Sunday. Some even showing something through the evening.
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NCWeatherhound
Member
6Z GFS insists on teasing our neck of the woods with what could well be a final dusting for Valentine's Day. No one else is interested in even giving us some of those nasty-tasting candy hearts.
NCSNOW
Member
6z GFS says when your hot your hot. Gboro area finds a way to snow / score every event this winter, why not one more time (fingers crossed).
Nice valentines heart in pink up in northern VA on that clown as well lol.
Nice valentines heart in pink up in northern VA on that clown as well lol.
NCSNOW
Member
6z nam
NCSNOW
Member
Euro was token flakes, Canadain says head to Wilson /Elm City NC to see jackpot. On to the 12z
Oh I'm not that would be silly on Feb 11th but I know not to take long range as gospel but there's no signals in the extended and the indices show a possible warm up.
I'm not throwing in nothing but for the time being this is all we got for a little bit.It’s February 10th and I don’t care what the models show out into March. You can never say it’s our last shot at snow with still over a month to go of winter. Even in a warmer pattern all it takes is one quick cold shot to meet up with some heavier moisture as we head towards spring. I think it’s easy to forget how we usually thread the needle after having a month where the moisture was running into cold air instead of chasing it. I still think someone could score a big early March snow this year. ??
Jumping into models from last night, was pleasantly surprised by the FV3 NAM (if that's what it's called)
That's pretty robust moisture in the foothills and a high rates is exactly how you wake up with a surprise with in setups like this when surface temps are not perfect
I've been pretty down on this event, I think it's disorganized, surface temps are an issue, etc but I'm paying attention to the hi res stuff today- if we're getting a surprise this is typically when the hi res models begin to bifurcate from the globals
That's pretty robust moisture in the foothills and a high rates is exactly how you wake up with a surprise with in setups like this when surface temps are not perfect
I've been pretty down on this event, I think it's disorganized, surface temps are an issue, etc but I'm paying attention to the hi res stuff today- if we're getting a surprise this is typically when the hi res models begin to bifurcate from the globals