• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Oppressive Ornery Obstinate Opposite October

gfs_T2m_us_53.png
This is crazy stuff right here.
 
Surprised no ones commented about euro. It was a very cold run, at least for the mid south:). Mostly attributed to recurving typhoon imo
 
Mr. Golf said:
Surprised no ones commented about euro. It was a very cold run, at least for the mid south:). Mostly attributed to recurving typhoon imo
Click to expand...
Speaking for myself alone, there's a pledge I made not to state what is plainly visible ... don't wanna bore folks (which I may well do anyway ... :cool:). But the Euro does suggest - and "suggest" is the operative word - a possible pattern relaxation beginning a bit before 240. Now that's the 30th and quite a bit can change in 10 days. So, we have some things to watch out for, which is the fun part of this until something is really knocking at the door ... o_O
Anyway - enjoy the cool that looks to be headed our way next week! That seems to be knockin' ...
Best,
Phil
 
Last edited:
Still looking forward to my 3"+ rain event Monday/Tuesday! :)
 
Well mid range models are showing a stronger severe look here Monday/Tuesday.. May have first "second season" event here. Would not be shocked if SPC has us outk=line come tomorrow morning.
 
To the surprise of no one, the GFS Ensemble is caving to the Euro after day 9 over NA, w/ a much deeper trough now showing up in the eastern-central US instead of the west...
Unknown.gif
 
man the GFS is all kinds of fun again this run... right after Halloween snow quite far south

November begins with a bang
 
Last edited:
As crazy as the year has been weather wise.. it wouldn't shock me to see freezing before Halloween and maybe token flurries. It's possible. Likey? No. lol. Let's be realistic but anything is always possible. I remember one year experiencing a brief burst of snow on Halloween going up 400 several years ago.
 
Lan is a powerful typhoon and will definitely shake things up. Tokyo is going to get a lashing.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
We should see a major -NAO stint about 1.5-2 weeks from now, classic precursor signals w/ intense MJO-related convection propagating across the Pacific thru modification of Rossby Wave trains that emanate from the anomalous heating center.
View attachment 1424

View attachment 1425
Click to expand...
Hi Webber. Is there a chance this can continue at times during meteorological winter with recurving typhoons and other factors related? I personally don't want this to be a one done type setup, considering it will be November soon and we don't hardly ever see snow/ice then.
 
Storm5 said:
Man the 00z EPS is a thing of beauty
475d2c30b3a2770067f65616b77c06a9.jpg


Sent from my SM-J320VPP using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
It is, C-Man!
The concern is long-term staying power, or probably more importantly come-back power once we get into December and January ... We'll just need to wait and see ... :confused: ... Way too soon to start making those sorts of predictions. Unfortunately, though, most LR seasonal models are not showing any joy.
Best!
Phil
 
Last edited:
Mr. Golf said:
Hi Webber. Is there a chance this can continue at times during meteorological winter with recurving typhoons and other factors related? I personally don't want this to be a one done type setup, considering it will be November soon and we don't hardly ever see snow/ice then.
Click to expand...

As i mentioned several days ago, in spite of the easterly QBO, a +NAO regime is favored in the current, warm background climate, coupling w/ inter annual persistence & the observed, recent decline in the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation that's been induced in part by the cumulative impact of melting land ice from Greenland in the past decade or so in addition to very warm SSTs in the NW Pacific that are liable to reinforce the bgd NINA regime which tends to stifle -NAOs. However, if there's any encouraging news I can offer it's that, w/ an easterly QBO and relatively low solar activity, the Brewer-Dobson Circulation may be stronger than normal (due to cooling at the top of the BDC upward branch) in spite of the ongoing La Nina. The alterations in upper level wind shear and static stability excited by near-equatorial cooling from the decent of easterly wind anomalies associated w/ the EQBO may allow for more pronounced intraseasonal forcing than last winter. This would inherently allow for more frequent opportunities for at least punctuated/brief periods of high latitude blocking even if the large-scale forcing overall is not favorable... Definitely some hope even if this winter ends up warm/dry
 
cd2play said:
Actually 2016 wasn't a complete train wreck, thanks to "Jonas" on January 22. Last winter was completely unacceptable, however.
Click to expand...

Jonas was very kind to most of middle Tennessee. I got 12 inches from that storm up here in White House Tennessee. The crazy part was that most of it fell in a 4-5 hour period. It was an experience I’ll never forget. As far as last winter I didn’t think it was possible to be as warm and snowless as it turned out to be.
 
Actually the "forecast" map is in to November, but looking at this in October (yes, I know, it is a very crappy model, but it's showing what everything else is showing LR (which being LR may be a blessing in disguise, since LR models tend to have issues)) ... ---> but back to a sentence -- Looking at this has persuaded supper to be black beans and rice topped with refried beans ...

wk3.wk4_latest.NAsfc_T.gif
 
i dont understand the big fuss and excitement about the models going into next week and just beyond... jesus... its october just now be barely going into november.... if we get these looks in late december to february.... game on
 
Basically we have Feb 20th sun angle and getting better every day. Take the cold pattern when you can get it and hope it locks in. GEFS is below normal for the run after Tuesday. Ready to be done running AC!!!
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top