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Wintry Jan 6-7 2022 Winter potential

So this is from memphis. I really dont know what they are seeing unless its for the extreme northern portion of the midsouth.
Northwest flow will return to the area Wednesday allowing another
strong cold front to move across the region. Temperatures will
fall into the mid 20s to mid 30s by Thursday morning and likely
continue to fall or remain steady through the day. A shortwave
trough is expected to move out of the Plains early Thursday and
across the Mississippi River during the day. The Canadian and the
ECMWF has this feature quite a bit more amplified resulting in a
significantly larger area of precipitation. The GFS mainly keeps
it in north Mississippi. Remember when I said temperatures should
be in the mid 20s to mid 30s Thursday morning and get colder
through the day? Yea, that means a lot of it will fall as snow.
The potential is there for significant accumulations.
 
I think I can squeeze a few flakes out of this. Start the south trend on the Euro
 
BIG FROSTY said:
JB agrees with you! He thinks the low will track thru central Va. then bombs away= Blizzard in the NE Friday... Said he could be wrong and it tracks further south. Mostly SNOW or NO very little rain south of the LP ?‍♂️
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Yep. We need at least a I-10 track but unfortunately we don’t get that pattern until April-September.
 
The GFS/Euro, some of the short range models are struggling with this disturbance. On the other hand, several of the GEFS members are showing light snow.
 
BIG FROSTY said:
JB agrees with you! He thinks the low will track thru central Va. then bombs away= Blizzard in the NE Friday... Said he could be wrong and it tracks further south. Mostly SNOW or NO very little rain south of the LP ?‍♂️
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The way he’s nailing this winter.....?
 
Per WBRC social media- Could see another close call with some wintry weather to the north Thursday. Just giving you the First Alert. Still looks like a cold rain for most of our area. I’ll keep you posted. Can’t post the photo it says it’s too large.
 
superjames1992 said:
At least the mountains should get some decent snow.
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Yes and there might be some decent upslope snow on the back side as well. We have a trip to Maggie Valley this weekend to go skiing and snow tubing, and we were really worried last week that the pattern wasn’t gonna shift it time. It looks awesome up there now for the weekend
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I’d expect this setup to trend NW over time given the lack of blocking and a western Atlantic ridge right next to the digging SW which could easily push this NW/amp it up sum View attachment 101727
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Yeah I mean honestly most all models except the Gfs have had this thing mostly north soooo … let’s get back to regular schedule programming
 
Nomanslandva said:
if this had not trended south already, I would be writing it off but with the EURO shifting it south, I will stay mildly interested.
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Yup I feel like we could get a little something from this.
 
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