• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Wintry Jan 6-7 2022 Winter potential

Nashville NWS has the 1 to 2 into north Alabama
271346823_5184944911537723_4097818129941747625_n.jpg
 
Stephenb888 said:
I have 2 questions. What exactly causes the NW trend late every time, and has anyone ever seen a storm start tracking south instead of NW when it’s actually go time? Just curious.
Click to expand...
I can't remember who, (it may have been Dr. Alicia Bentley) found in their research that there is no bias in models for an NW trend, and it is all perceptive.
 
Just from how this looks, I can't see this being anything for anyone south of NC or TN outside maybe flurries. Can't get excited for a weak low that would have do dig 100 miles more south to be meaningful in just 2 days of runs, and with the wave coming ashore tomorrow it'll likely be locked into nothing more than 20 to 30 mile shifts come verification time.
 
ForsythSnow said:
Just from how this looks, I can't see this being anything for anyone south of NC or TN outside maybe flurries. Can't get excited for a weak low that would have do dig 100 miles more south to be meaningful in just 2 days of runs, and with the wave coming ashore tomorrow it'll likely be locked into nothing more than 20 to 30 mile shifts come verification time.
Click to expand...
I'm seriously giving thought to chasing it, though. 3.5 hours away and I could be in Knoxville or maybe Crossville, TN. It's not extremely heavy or extremely cold and icy. It might work.
 
weatherfide said:
I'm seriously giving thought to chasing it, though. 3.5 hours away and I could be in Knoxville or maybe Crossville, TN. It's not extremely heavy or extremely cold and icy. It might work.
Click to expand...
snow starting with temps in the mid 20s in any part of the south is extremely cold. Especially with how cold temps have been as lots of us dropped into the teens this morning. The snow will stick as soon as it hits the ground making travel much more difficult then the last snow. Im not suggesting you don’t travel but 3-4 inches of snow with the forecasted temps will cause major road issues even in Nashville. By the way I think Nashville can start putting to rest the snow hole problem. Since 2015 the Midstate has done pretty good with winter weather events. This will be the second winter in a row that a major snow storm hit within 3 days of eachother if this one pans out.
 
olhausen said:
snow starting with temps in the mid 20s in any part of the south is extremely cold. Especially with how cold temps have been as lots of us dropped into the teens this morning. The snow will stick as soon as it hits the ground making travel much more difficult then the last snow. Im not suggesting you don’t travel but 3-4 inches of snow with the forecasted temps will cause major road issues even in Nashville. By the way I think Nashville can start putting to rest the snow hole problem. Since 2015 the Midstate has done pretty good with winter weather events. This will be the second winter in a row that a major snow storm hit within 3 days of eachother if this one pans out.
Click to expand...
Yes, you make good points. Probably going to sit this one out, especially since the southeast looks to be heading into a significantly colder period over the next few weeks.
 
weatherfide said:
Yes, you make good points. Probably going to sit this one out, especially since the southeast looks to be heading into a significantly colder period over the next few weeks.
Click to expand...
I just saw all those people I believe in Virginia get trapped in the snow and ice on the freeway since last night. You mentioned traveling here so it made me think about it when you posted. Being stuck on the freeway for 12 or more hours would be a nightmare.
 
accu35 said:
Reason for?
Click to expand...
Cold air push seems underdone. Also, the SLP track hasn't shifted south very much like it should have with the current push of cold air. This has a suppressed trend look to it, and being that this SLP is currently tracking through central AL, I think we see another couple of bigger shifts south, putting a lot of the board in play, especially N. GA and a lot of NC. I think N. AL gets in on this too...maybe extreme northern counties. Eastern TN is going to get smacked!
 
olhausen said:
I just saw all those people I believe in Virginia get trapped in the snow and ice on the freeway since last night. You mentioned traveling here so it made me think about it when you posted. Being stuck on the freeway for 12 or more hours would be a nightmare.
Click to expand...
My plan was to arrive before it started, hunker down at a hotel, enjoy the snow and then leave after the sun melts the interstate. I wasn't going far off the beaten path. It just might not melt fast enough Friday and Saturday and I don't want to pay for 7 days at a hotel. Roads should be clear by Sunday afternoon, I would hope, with highs in the upper 40's, low 50's. I'll wait and catch a marginal event closer to base.
 
weatherfide said:
My plan was to arrive before it started, hunker down at a hotel, enjoy the snow and then leave after the sun melts the interstate. I wasn't going far off the beaten path. It just might not melt fast enough Friday and Saturday and I don't want to pay for 7 days at a hotel. Roads should be clear by Sunday afternoon, I would hope, with highs in the upper 40's, low 50's. I'll wait and catch a marginal event closer to base.
Click to expand...
Tennessee is MUCH quicker at clearing interstates than the gulf coast states. We have plows. ;)
 
Coach B said:
Tennessee is MUCH quicker at clearing interstates than the gulf coast states. We have plows. ;)
Click to expand...
That is the truth. Blew my mind the first 6+ event here when by lunch time I could basically get anywhere I needed to go. A storm like that has school canceled the rest of the week in Greenville, NC. And our neighborhood would be icy for 3 days haha.
 
NoSnowATL said:
This is a Tennessee storm I think. Looks great for them.
Click to expand...
@olhausen gon a have some great table pics! Tennessee is gonna jackpot Thursday! Temps into mid 20s for the event , then single digits FridayAM! Looks like solid 3-6”+ for them,probably 8” lollipops
 
A portion of Memphis’ AFD. Sorry, just want my couple inches of snow here in Northwest MS. ?


A shortwave trough is expected to move out of the Plains early
Thursday and across the Mississippi River during the day. The GFS
has come around to the more robust coverage of precipitation that
the ECMWF and Canadian models featured yesterday. However, both
the GFS and the ECMWF are a bit faster, bringing an end to the
precipitation by sunset. The Canadian still keeps precipitation in
west Tennessee several hours longer. The potential is there for
significant accumulations. However, as it typical in the
Midsouth, we will likely see a mix of rain and sleet as the
precipitation begins followed by a changeover to mostly snow.
 
1641331573143.jpeg
1641331593152.jpeg
1641331620113.jpeg
This thing is really trending south quickly. So much so that even the upstate is in on what I believe would be snow based on the control. Now it doesn’t show any snow accumulation based on the totals which indicates it would be sleet. However with the 850’s that cold and the surface being right at or slightly below freezing I would almost bet it’s a snow sounding.
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top