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Severe New Years Severe Weather Event

34874B09-3F64-4E02-83E2-FAA005BA7558.gifThat one about to cross the state line seems like it could produce shortly. Has nothing blocking inflow from the south.
 
Nothing really get any strong rotation too it. Might be because of the poor lapse rates, but idk
 
Wait. The warm nose hasn't even broke. So most of these probably aren't even convective yet lol
 
Mesoscale Discussion 9​
MD 9 graphic

Mesoscale Discussion 0009
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0157 PM CST Sat Jan 01 2022

Areas affected...Northern MS into Far Northern AL and Southern
Middle TN.

Concerning...Tornado Watch 3...4...5...

Valid 011957Z - 012130Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3, 4, 5 continues.

SUMMARY...Development of a few discrete supercells capable of
producing tornadoes and damaging wind gusts possible from northern
MS into far northern AL and southern middle TN.

DISCUSSION...Recent observations suggest the outflow boundary moving
through western TN has become less defined near the TN/MS border,
suggesting that much of warm sector across northern MS and adjacent
northern AL/southern middle TN will likely stay free from the
influence of this boundary. Additionally, the amount and intensity
of the warm sector cells has continued to increase, with several
cells producing lightning over the past hour. This development is
occurring within an environment characterized by warm and moist
low-levels and strong vertical shear. Recent GWX VAD also sampled
300 m2/s2 of 0-1 km storm-relative helicity. Expectation is for the
storms currently in northern MS to organize/intensify further as
they continue northeastward into a more sheared downstream
environment.

..Mosier.. 01/01/2022
 
Heading northeast to Birmingham. Not rooted to the surface, but pretty strong rotation Screenshot_20220101-141300.png
 
This is a very healthy looking on cell on radar. I think this one near where the HRRR gets updraft swaths on. Screenshot_20220101-141800.png
 
5F6F9C64-0F95-4B2F-AA5C-774B7D26C748.gifNew MCD
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3, 4, 5 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm threat, including the potential for a
tornado, continues ahead of the outflow boundary from northeast MS
across northern AL into middle TN.

DISCUSSION...Despite an abundance of warm sector development, most
of this activity has failed to materialize into supercells thus far.
The only exception is the pair of northeastward moving supercells,
one over far north-central MS and the other over far northwest AL.
Westernmost cell in this pair has begun to interact with the outflow
while the easternmost cell is still slightly ahead of the boundary
and may be able to remain more intense for a bit longer.

While some weakening of the buoyancy has occurred, this narrow
corridor ahead of the outflow still represents the best area for
potential severe thunderstorms for the next few hours.
 
HSVweather said:
View attachment 100759New MCD
The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 3, 4, 5 continues.

SUMMARY...Severe thunderstorm threat, including the potential for a
tornado, continues ahead of the outflow boundary from northeast MS
across northern AL into middle TN.

DISCUSSION...Despite an abundance of warm sector development, most
of this activity has failed to materialize into supercells thus far.
The only exception is the pair of northeastward moving supercells,
one over far north-central MS and the other over far northwest AL.
Westernmost cell in this pair has begun to interact with the outflow
while the easternmost cell is still slightly ahead of the boundary
and may be able to remain more intense for a bit longer.

While some weakening of the buoyancy has occurred, this narrow
corridor ahead of the outflow still represents the best area for
potential severe thunderstorms for the next few hours.
Click to expand...
Mid level lapse rates are barely 6C which is likely the reason why storms haven’t gotten going like they were suppose to
 
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